Richard B. Dewey

Richard Dewey, Janos Botyanszki, Ciamac C. Moallemi et al.

AI researchers have long focused on poker-like games as a testbed for environments characterized by multi-player dynamics, imperfect information, and reasoning under uncertainty. While recent breakthroughs have matched elite human play at no-limit Texas hold'em, the multi-player dynamics are subdued: most hands converge quickly with only two players engaged through multiple rounds of bidding. In this paper, we present Solly, the first AI agent to achieve elite human play in reduced-format Liar's Poker, a game characterized by extensive multi-player engagement. We trained Solly using self-play with a model-free, actor-critic, deep reinforcement learning algorithm. Solly played at an elite human level as measured by win rate (won over 50% of hands) and equity (money won) in heads-up and multi-player Liar's Poker. Solly also outperformed large language models (LLMs), including those with reasoning abilities, on the same metrics. Solly developed novel bidding strategies, randomized play effectively, and was not easily exploitable by world-class human players.

Vyom Raval, Kevin P. Nguyen, Ashley Gerald et al.

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a common neurological disorder characterized by gait impairment. PD has no cure, and an impediment to developing a treatment is the lack of any accepted method to predict disease progression rate. The primary aim of this study was to develop a model using clinical measures and biomechanical measures of gait and postural stability to predict an individual's PD progression over two years. Data from 160 PD subjects were utilized. Machine learning models, including XGBoost and Feed Forward Neural Networks, were developed using extensive model optimization and cross-validation. The highest performing model was a neural network that used a group of clinical measures, achieved a PPV of 71% in identifying fast progressors, and explained a large portion (37%) of the variance in an individual's progression rate on held-out test data. This demonstrates the potential to predict individual PD progression rate and enrich trials by analyzing clinical and biomechanical measures with machine learning.