Jakob Gawlikowski

Nis Meinert, Jakob Gawlikowski, Alexander Lavin

There is a significant need for principled uncertainty reasoning in machine learning systems as they are increasingly deployed in safety-critical domains. A new approach with uncertainty-aware regression-based neural networks (NNs), based on learning evidential distributions for aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, shows promise over traditional deterministic methods and typical Bayesian NNs, notably with the capabilities to disentangle aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. Despite some empirical success of Deep Evidential Regression (DER), there are important gaps in the mathematical foundation that raise the question of why the proposed technique seemingly works. We detail the theoretical shortcomings and analyze the performance on synthetic and real-world data sets, showing that Deep Evidential Regression is a heuristic rather than an exact uncertainty quantification. We go on to discuss corrections and redefinitions of how aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties should be extracted from NNs.

Laines Schmalwasser, Jakob Gawlikowski, Joachim Denzler et al.

Concept Activation Vectors (CAVs) offer insights into neural network decision-making by linking human friendly concepts to the model's internal feature extraction process. However, when a new set of CAVs is discovered, they must still be translated into a human understandable description. For image-based neural networks, this is typically done by visualizing the most relevant images of a CAV, while the determination of the concept is left to humans. In this work, we introduce an approach to aid the interpretation of newly discovered concept sets by suggesting textual descriptions for each CAV. This is done by mapping the most relevant images representing a CAV into a text-image embedding where a joint description of these relevant images can be computed. We propose utilizing the most relevant receptive fields instead of full images encoded. We demonstrate the capabilities of this approach in multiple experiments with and without given CAV labels, showing that the proposed approach provides accurate descriptions for the CAVs and reduces the challenge of concept interpretation.

Ferdinand Rewicki, Jakob Gawlikowski, Julia Niebling et al.

The detection of abnormal or critical system states is essential in condition monitoring. While much attention is given to promptly identifying anomalies, a retrospective analysis of these anomalies can significantly enhance our comprehension of the underlying causes of observed undesired behavior. This aspect becomes particularly critical when the monitored system is deployed in a vital environment. In this study, we delve into anomalies within the domain of Bio-Regenerative Life Support Systems (BLSS) for space exploration and analyze anomalies found in telemetry data stemming from the EDEN ISS space greenhouse in Antarctica. We employ time series clustering on anomaly detection results to categorize various types of anomalies in both uni- and multivariate settings. We then assess the effectiveness of these methods in identifying systematic anomalous behavior. Additionally, we illustrate that the anomaly detection methods MDI and DAMP produce complementary results, as previously indicated by research.

Jakob Gawlikowski, Cedrique Rovile Njieutcheu Tassi, Mohsin Ali et al.

Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.

Sandeep Kumar Singh, Jaya Shradha Fowdur, Jakob Gawlikowski et al.

Understanding and representing traffic patterns are key to detecting anomalous trajectories in the transportation domain. However, some trajectories can exhibit heterogeneous maneuvering characteristics despite confining to normal patterns. Thus, we propose a novel graph-based trajectory representation and association scheme for extraction and confederation of traffic movement patterns, such that data patterns and uncertainty can be learned by deep learning (DL) models. This paper proposes the usage of a recurrent neural network (RNN)-based evidential regression model, which can predict trajectory at future timesteps as well as estimate the data and model uncertainties associated, to detect maritime anomalous trajectories, such as unusual vessel maneuvering, using automatic identification system (AIS) data. Furthermore, we utilize evidential deep learning classifiers to detect unusual turns of vessels and the loss of transmitted signal using predicted class probabilities with associated uncertainties. Our experimental results suggest that the graphical representation of traffic patterns improves the ability of the DL models, such as evidential and Monte Carlo dropout, to learn the temporal-spatial correlation of data and associated uncertainties. Using different datasets and experiments, we demonstrate that the estimated prediction uncertainty yields fundamental information for the detection of traffic anomalies in the maritime and, possibly in other domains.

Jakob Gawlikowski, Sudipan Saha, Anna Kruspe et al.

In satellite image analysis, distributional mismatch between the training and test data may arise due to several reasons, including unseen classes in the test data and differences in the geographic area. Deep learning based models may behave in unexpected manner when subjected to test data that has such distributional shifts from the training data, also called out-of-distribution (OOD) examples. Predictive uncertainly analysis is an emerging research topic which has not been explored much in context of satellite image analysis. Towards this, we adopt a Dirichlet Prior Network based model to quantify distributional uncertainty of deep learning models for remote sensing. The approach seeks to maximize the representation gap between the in-domain and OOD examples for a better identification of unknown examples at test time. Experimental results on three exemplary test scenarios show the efficacy of the model in satellite image analysis.