Jiaxin Gao

Jiaxin Gao, Qinglong Cao, Yuntian Chen

Time series forecasting (TSF) is essential in various domains, and recent advancements in diffusion-based TSF models have shown considerable promise. However, these models typically adopt traditional diffusion patterns, treating TSF as a noise-based conditional generation task. This approach neglects the inherent continuous sequential nature of time series, leading to a fundamental misalignment between diffusion mechanisms and the TSF objective, thereby severely impairing performance. To bridge this misalignment, and inspired by the classic Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) theory, which views time series as continuous sequential progressions evolving from previous data points, we propose a novel Auto-Regressive Moving Diffusion (ARMD) model to first achieve the continuous sequential diffusion-based TSF. Unlike previous methods that start from white Gaussian noise, our model employs chain-based diffusion with priors, accurately modeling the evolution of time series and leveraging intermediate state information to improve forecasting accuracy and stability. Specifically, our approach reinterprets the diffusion process by considering future series as the initial state and historical series as the final state, with intermediate series generated using a sliding-based technique during the forward process. This design aligns the diffusion model's sampling procedure with the forecasting objective, resulting in an unconditional, continuous sequential diffusion TSF model. Extensive experiments conducted on seven widely used datasets demonstrate that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming existing diffusion-based TSF models. Our code is available on GitHub: https://github.com/daxin007/ARMD.

Jiaxin Gao, Wenbo Hu, Yuntian Chen

Revisiting PCA for Time Series Reduction in Temporal Dimension; Jiaxin Gao, Wenbo Hu, Yuntian Chen; Deep learning has significantly advanced time series analysis (TSA), enabling the extraction of complex patterns for tasks like classification, forecasting, and regression. Although dimensionality reduction has traditionally focused on the variable space-achieving notable success in minimizing data redundancy and computational complexity-less attention has been paid to reducing the temporal dimension. In this study, we revisit Principal Component Analysis (PCA), a classical dimensionality reduction technique, to explore its utility in temporal dimension reduction for time series data. It is generally thought that applying PCA to the temporal dimension would disrupt temporal dependencies, leading to limited exploration in this area. However, our theoretical analysis and extensive experiments demonstrate that applying PCA to sliding series windows not only maintains model performance, but also enhances computational efficiency. In auto-regressive forecasting, the temporal structure is partially preserved through windowing, and PCA is applied within these windows to denoise the time series while retaining their statistical information. By preprocessing time-series data with PCA, we reduce the temporal dimensionality before feeding it into TSA models such as Linear, Transformer, CNN, and RNN architectures. This approach accelerates training and inference and reduces resource consumption. Notably, PCA improves Informer training and inference speed by up to 40% and decreases GPU memory usage of TimesNet by 30%, without sacrificing model accuracy. Comparative analysis against other reduction methods further highlights the effectiveness of PCA in improving the efficiency of TSA models.