Rahul Singh

Soham Raste, Rahul Singh, Joel Vaughan et al.

Most machine learning (ML) algorithms have several stochastic elements, and their performances are affected by these sources of randomness. This paper uses an empirical study to systematically examine the effects of two sources: randomness in model training and randomness in the partitioning of a dataset into training and test subsets. We quantify and compare the magnitude of the variation in predictive performance for the following ML algorithms: Random Forests (RFs), Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs), and Feedforward Neural Networks (FFNNs). Among the different algorithms, randomness in model training causes larger variation for FFNNs compared to tree-based methods. This is to be expected as FFNNs have more stochastic elements that are part of their model initialization and training. We also found that random splitting of datasets leads to higher variation compared to the inherent randomness from model training. The variation from data splitting can be a major issue if the original dataset has considerable heterogeneity. Keywords: Model Training, Reproducibility, Variation

Rahul Singh, Yongxin Chen

Graph convolutional networks (GCNs) and its variants are designed for unsigned graphs containing only positive links. Many existing GCNs have been derived from the spectral domain analysis of signals lying over (unsigned) graphs and in each convolution layer they perform low-pass filtering of the input features followed by a learnable linear transformation. Their extension to signed graphs with positive as well as negative links imposes multiple issues including computational irregularities and ambiguous frequency interpretation, making the design of computationally efficient low pass filters challenging. In this paper, we address these issues via spectral analysis of signed graphs and propose two different signed graph neural networks, one keeps only low-frequency information and one also retains high-frequency information. We further introduce magnetic signed Laplacian and use its eigendecomposition for spectral analysis of directed signed graphs. We test our methods for node classification and link sign prediction tasks on signed graphs and achieve state-of-the-art performances.

Omkar Patil, Rahul Singh, Tarun Joshi

Paraphrase generation is a difficult problem. This is not only because of the limitations in text generation capabilities but also due that to the lack of a proper definition of what qualifies as a paraphrase and corresponding metrics to measure how good it is. Metrics for evaluation of paraphrasing quality is an on going research problem. Most of the existing metrics in use having been borrowed from other tasks do not capture the complete essence of a good paraphrase, and often fail at borderline-cases. In this work, we propose a novel metric $ROUGE_P$ to measure the quality of paraphrases along the dimensions of adequacy, novelty and fluency. We also provide empirical evidence to show that the current natural language generation metrics are insufficient to measure these desired properties of a good paraphrase. We look at paraphrase model fine-tuning and generation from the lens of metrics to gain a deeper understanding of what it takes to generate and evaluate a good paraphrase.

Avik Kar, Rahul Singh

We study infinite-horizon average-reward reinforcement learning (RL) for Lipschitz MDPs, a broad class that subsumes several important classes such as linear and RKHS MDPs, function approximation frameworks, and develop an adaptive algorithm $\text{ZoRL}$ with regret bounded as $\mathcal{O}\big(T^{1 - d_{\text{eff.}}^{-1}}\big)$, where $d_{\text{eff.}}= 2d_\mathcal{S} + d_z + 3$, $d_\mathcal{S}$ is the dimension of the state space and $d_z$ is the zooming dimension. In contrast, algorithms with fixed discretization yield $d_{\text{eff.}} = 2(d_\mathcal{S} + d_\mathcal{A}) + 2$, $d_\mathcal{A}$ being the dimension of action space. $\text{ZoRL}$ achieves this by discretizing the state-action space adaptively and zooming into ''promising regions'' of the state-action space. $d_z$, a problem-dependent quantity bounded by the state-action space's dimension, allows us to conclude that if an MDP is benign, then the regret of $\text{ZoRL}$ will be small. The zooming dimension and $\text{ZoRL}$ are truly adaptive, i.e., the current work shows how to capture adaptivity gains for infinite-horizon average-reward RL. $\text{ZoRL}$ outperforms other state-of-the-art algorithms in experiments, thereby demonstrating the gains arising due to adaptivity.

A Ch Madhusudanarao, Rahul Singh

We study chance constrained optimization problems $\min_x f(x)$ s.t. $P(\left\{ θ: g(x,θ)\le 0 \right\})\ge 1-ε$ where $ε\in (0,1)$ is the violation probability, when the distribution $P$ is not known to the decision maker (DM). When the DM has access to a set of distributions $\mathcal{U}$ such that $P$ is contained in $\mathcal{U}$, then the problem is known as the ambiguous chance-constrained problem \cite{erdougan2006ambiguous}. We study ambiguous chance-constrained problem for the case when $\mathcal{U}$ is of the form $\left\{μ:\frac{μ(y)}{ν(y)}\leq C, \forall y\inΘ, μ(y)\ge 0\right\}$, where $ν$ is a ``reference distribution.'' We show that in this case the original problem can be ``well-approximated'' by a sampled problem in which $N$ i.i.d. samples of $θ$ are drawn from $ν$, and the original constraint is replaced with $g(x,θ_i)\le 0,~i=1,2,\ldots,N$. We also derive the sample complexity associated with this approximation, i.e., for $ε,δ>0$ the number of samples which must be drawn from $ν$ so that with a probability greater than $1-δ$ (over the randomness of $ν$), the solution obtained by solving the sampled program yields an $ε$-feasible solution for the original chance constrained problem.

Rahul Singh, Akshay Mete, Avik Kar et al.

Minimum variance controllers have been employed in a wide-range of industrial applications. A key challenge experienced by many adaptive controllers is their poor empirical performance in the initial stages of learning. In this paper, we address the problem of initializing them so that they provide acceptable transients, and also provide an accompanying finite-time regret analysis, for adaptive minimum variance control of an auto-regressive system with exogenous inputs (ARX). Following [3], we consider a modified version of the Certainty Equivalence (CE) adaptive controller, which we call PIECE, that utilizes probing inputs for exploration. We show that it has a $C \log T$ bound on the regret after $T$ time-steps for bounded noise, and $C\log^2 T$ in the case of sub-Gaussian noise. The simulation results demonstrate the advantage of PIECE over the algorithm proposed in [3] as well as the standard Certainty Equivalence controller especially in the initial learning phase. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that provides finite-time regret bounds for an adaptive minimum variance controller.

Akshay Mete, Rahul Singh, P. R. Kumar

We consider the problem of controlling an unknown stochastic linear system with quadratic costs - called the adaptive LQ control problem. We re-examine an approach called ''Reward Biased Maximum Likelihood Estimate'' (RBMLE) that was proposed more than forty years ago, and which predates the ''Upper Confidence Bound'' (UCB) method as well as the definition of ''regret'' for bandit problems. It simply added a term favoring parameters with larger rewards to the criterion for parameter estimation. We show how the RBMLE and UCB methods can be reconciled, and thereby propose an Augmented RBMLE-UCB algorithm that combines the penalty of the RBMLE method with the constraints of the UCB method, uniting the two approaches to optimism in the face of uncertainty. We establish that theoretically, this method retains $\Tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ regret, the best-known so far. We further compare the empirical performance of the proposed Augmented RBMLE-UCB and the standard RBMLE (without the augmentation) with UCB, Thompson Sampling, Input Perturbation, Randomized Certainty Equivalence and StabL on many real-world examples including flight control of Boeing 747 and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle. We perform extensive simulation studies showing that the Augmented RBMLE consistently outperforms UCB, Thompson Sampling and StabL by a huge margin, while it is marginally better than Input Perturbation and moderately better than Randomized Certainty Equivalence.

Rahul Singh, Hannah Zhou

A core challenge in causal inference is how to extrapolate long term effects, of possibly continuous actions, from short term experimental data. It arises in artificial intelligence: the long term consequences of continuous actions may be of interest, yet only short term rewards may be collected in exploration. For this estimand, called the long term dose response curve, we propose a simple nonparametric estimator based on kernel ridge regression. By embedding the distribution of the short term experimental data with kernels, we derive interpretable weights for extrapolating long term effects. Our method allows actions, short term rewards, and long term rewards to be continuous in general spaces. It also allows for nonlinearity and heterogeneity in the link between short term effects and long term effects. We prove uniform consistency, with nonasymptotic error bounds reflecting the effective dimension of the data. As an application, we estimate the long term dose response curve of Project STAR, a social program which randomly assigned students to various class sizes. We extend our results to long term counterfactual distributions, proving weak convergence.

Rahul Singh, Liyuan Xu, Arthur Gretton

We propose simple nonparametric estimators for mediated and time-varying dose response curves based on kernel ridge regression. By embedding Pearl's mediation formula and Robins' g-formula with kernels, we allow treatments, mediators, and covariates to be continuous in general spaces, and also allow for nonlinear treatment-confounder feedback. Our key innovation is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space technique called sequential kernel embedding, which we use to construct simple estimators that account for complex feedback. Our estimators preserve the generality of classic identification while also achieving nonasymptotic uniform rates. In nonlinear simulations with many covariates, we demonstrate strong performance. We estimate mediated and time-varying dose response curves of the US Job Corps, and clean data that may serve as a benchmark in future work. We extend our results to mediated and time-varying treatment effects and counterfactual distributions, verifying semiparametric efficiency and weak convergence.

Archit Parnami, Rahul Singh, Tarun Joshi

Recent years have seen a growing adoption of Transformer models such as BERT in Natural Language Processing and even in Computer Vision. However, due to their size, there has been limited adoption of such models within resource-constrained computing environments. This paper proposes novel pruning algorithm to compress transformer models by eliminating redundant Attention Heads. We apply the A* search algorithm to obtain a pruned model with strict accuracy guarantees. Our results indicate that the method could eliminate as much as 40% of the attention heads in the BERT transformer model with no loss in accuracy.

Rahul Singh, Yongxin Chen

We consider inference problems for a class of continuous state collective hidden Markov models, where the data is recorded in aggregate (collective) form generated by a large population of individuals following the same dynamics. We propose an aggregate inference algorithm called collective Gaussian forward-backward algorithm, extending recently proposed Sinkhorn belief propagation algorithm to models characterized by Gaussian densities. Our algorithm enjoys convergence guarantee. In addition, it reduces to the standard Kalman filter when the observations are generated by a single individual. The efficacy of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated through multiple experiments.

Victor Chernozhukov, Whitney K. Newey, Rahul Singh

Debiased machine learning is a meta algorithm based on bias correction and sample splitting to calculate confidence intervals for functionals, i.e. scalar summaries, of machine learning algorithms. For example, an analyst may desire the confidence interval for a treatment effect estimated with a neural network. We provide a nonasymptotic debiased machine learning theorem that encompasses any global or local functional of any machine learning algorithm that satisfies a few simple, interpretable conditions. Formally, we prove consistency, Gaussian approximation, and semiparametric efficiency by finite sample arguments. The rate of convergence is $n^{-1/2}$ for global functionals, and it degrades gracefully for local functionals. Our results culminate in a simple set of conditions that an analyst can use to translate modern learning theory rates into traditional statistical inference. The conditions reveal a general double robustness property for ill posed inverse problems.

Rahul Singh, Qinsheng Zhang, Yongxin Chen

In this paper, we propose an algorithm for estimating the parameters of a time-homogeneous hidden Markov model from aggregate observations. This problem arises when only the population level counts of the number of individuals at each time step are available, from which one seeks to learn the individual hidden Markov model. Our algorithm is built upon expectation-maximization and the recently proposed aggregate inference algorithm, the Sinkhorn belief propagation. As compared with existing methods such as expectation-maximization with non-linear belief propagation, our algorithm exhibits convergence guarantees. Moreover, our learning framework naturally reduces to the standard Baum-Welch learning algorithm when observations corresponding to a single individual are recorded. We further extend our learning algorithm to handle HMMs with continuous observations. The efficacy of our algorithm is demonstrated on a variety of datasets.

Qinsheng Zhang, Rahul Singh, Yongxin Chen

We consider a class of filtering problems for large populations where each individual is modeled by the same hidden Markov model (HMM). In this paper, we focus on aggregate inference problems in HMMs with discrete state space and continuous observation space. The continuous observations are aggregated in a way such that the individuals are indistinguishable from measurements. We propose an aggregate inference algorithm called continuous observation collective forward-backward algorithm. It extends the recently proposed collective forward-backward algorithm for aggregate inference in HMMs with discrete observations to the case of continuous observations. The efficacy of this algorithm is illustrated through several numerical experiments.

Rahul Singh, Liyuan Xu, Arthur Gretton

We propose estimators based on kernel ridge regression for nonparametric causal functions such as dose, heterogeneous, and incremental response curves. Treatment and covariates may be discrete or continuous in general spaces. Due to a decomposition property specific to the RKHS, our estimators have simple closed form solutions. We prove uniform consistency with finite sample rates via original analysis of generalized kernel ridge regression. We extend our main results to counterfactual distributions and to causal functions identified by front and back door criteria. We achieve state-of-the-art performance in nonlinear simulations with many covariates, and conduct a policy evaluation of the US Job Corps training program for disadvantaged youths.

Rahul Singh, Tarun Joshi, Vijayan N. Nair et al.

We propose algorithms to create adversarial attacks to assess model robustness in text classification problems. They can be used to create white box attacks and black box attacks while at the same time preserving the semantics and syntax of the original text. The attacks cause significant number of flips in white-box setting and same rule based can be used in black-box setting. In a black-box setting, the attacks created are able to reverse decisions of transformer based architectures.

Rahul Singh, Isabel Haasler, Qinsheng Zhang et al.

We consider incremental inference problems from aggregate data for collective dynamics. In particular, we address the problem of estimating the aggregate marginals of a Markov chain from noisy aggregate observations in an incremental (online) fashion. We propose a sliding window Sinkhorn belief propagation (SW-SBP) algorithm that utilizes a sliding window filter of the most recent noisy aggregate observations along with encoded information from discarded observations. Our algorithm is built upon the recently proposed multi-marginal optimal transport based SBP algorithm that leverages standard belief propagation and Sinkhorn algorithm to solve inference problems from aggregate data. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithm on applications such as inferring population flow from aggregate observations.

Isabel Haasler, Rahul Singh, Qinsheng Zhang et al.

We study multi-marginal optimal transport problems from a probabilistic graphical model perspective. We point out an elegant connection between the two when the underlying cost for optimal transport allows a graph structure. In particular, an entropy regularized multi-marginal optimal transport is equivalent to a Bayesian marginal inference problem for probabilistic graphical models with the additional requirement that some of the marginal distributions are specified. This relation on the one hand extends the optimal transport as well as the probabilistic graphical model theories, and on the other hand leads to fast algorithms for multi-marginal optimal transport by leveraging the well-developed algorithms in Bayesian inference. Several numerical examples are provided to highlight the results.

Rahul Singh, Isabel Haasler, Qinsheng Zhang et al.

We consider inference (filtering) problems over probabilistic graphical models with aggregate data generated by a large population of individuals. We propose a new efficient belief propagation type algorithm over tree-structured graphs with polynomial computational complexity as well as a global convergence guarantee. This is in contrast to previous methods that either exhibit prohibitive complexity as the population grows or do not guarantee convergence. Our method is based on optimal transport, or more specifically, multi-marginal optimal transport theory. In particular, we consider an inference problem with aggregate observations, that can be seen as a structured multi-marginal optimal transport problem where the cost function decomposes according to the underlying graph. Consequently, the celebrated Sinkhorn/iterative scaling algorithm for multi-marginal optimal transport can be leveraged together with the standard belief propagation algorithm to establish an efficient inference scheme which we call Sinkhorn belief propagation (SBP). We further specialize the SBP algorithm to cases associated with hidden Markov models due to their significance in control and estimation. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithm on applications such as inferring population flow from aggregate observations. We also show that in the special case where the observations are generated by a single individual, our algorithm naturally reduces to the standard belief propagation algorithm.

Rahul Singh, Liyang Sun

We propose a semiparametric test to evaluate (i) whether different instruments induce subpopulations of compliers with the same observable characteristics on average, and (ii) whether compliers have observable characteristics that are the same as the full population on average. The test is a flexible robustness check for the external validity of instruments. We use it to reinterpret the difference in LATE estimates that Angrist and Evans (1998) obtain when using different instrumental variables. To justify the test, we characterize the doubly robust moment for Abadie (2003)'s class of complier parameters, and we analyze a machine learning update to $κ$ weighting.