Fang Chen

Hassan Gharoun, Mohammad Sadegh Khorshidi, Fang Chen et al.

Reliable uncertainty quantification is critical in high-stakes applications, such as medical diagnosis, where confidently incorrect predictions can erode trust in automated decision-making systems. Traditional uncertainty quantification methods rely on a predefined confidence threshold to classify predictions as confident or uncertain. However, this approach assumes that predictions exceeding the threshold are trustworthy, while those below it are uncertain, without explicitly assessing the correctness of high-confidence predictions. As a result, confidently incorrect predictions may still occur, leading to misleading uncertainty assessments. To address this limitation, this study proposed an uncertainty-aware stacked neural network, which extends conventional uncertainty quantification by learning when predictions should be trusted. The framework consists of a two-tier model: the base model generates predictions with uncertainty estimates, while the meta-model learns to assign a trust flag, distinguishing confidently correct cases from those requiring expert review. The proposed approach is evaluated against the traditional threshold-based method across multiple confidence thresholds and pre-trained architectures using the COVIDx CXR-4 dataset. Results demonstrate that the proposed framework significantly reduces confidently incorrect predictions, offering a more trustworthy and efficient decision-support system for high-stakes domains.

Hassan Gharoun, Mohammad Sadegh Khorshidi, Kasra Ranjbarigderi et al.

Despite extensive research on neural network calibration, existing methods typically apply global transformations that treat all predictions uniformly, overlooking the heterogeneous reliability of individual predictions. Furthermore, the relationship between improved calibration and effective uncertainty-aware decision-making remains largely unexplored. This paper presents a post-hoc calibration framework that leverages prediction reliability assessment to jointly enhance calibration quality and uncertainty-aware decision-making. The framework employs proximity-based conformal prediction to stratify calibration samples into putatively correct and putatively incorrect groups based on semantic similarity in feature space. A dual calibration strategy is then applied: standard isotonic regression calibrated confidence in putatively correct predictions, while underconfidence-regularized isotonic regression reduces confidence toward uniform distributions for putatively incorrect predictions, facilitating their identification for further investigations. A comprehensive evaluation is conducted using calibration metrics, uncertainty-aware performance measures, and empirical conformal coverage. Experiments on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 with BiT and CoAtNet backbones show that the proposed method achieves lower confidently incorrect predictions, and competitive Expected Calibration Error compared with isotonic and focal-loss baselines. This work bridges calibration and uncertainty quantification through instance-level adaptivity, offering a practical post-hoc solution that requires no model retraining while improving both probability alignment and uncertainty-aware decision-making.