Linjun Zhang

Zhun Deng, Cynthia Dwork, Linjun Zhang

Multi-calibration is a powerful and evolving concept originating in the field of algorithmic fairness. For a predictor $f$ that estimates the outcome $y$ given covariates $x$, and for a function class $\mathcal{C}$, multi-calibration requires that the predictor $f(x)$ and outcome $y$ are indistinguishable under the class of auditors in $\mathcal{C}$. Fairness is captured by incorporating demographic subgroups into the class of functions~$\mathcal{C}$. Recent work has shown that, by enriching the class $\mathcal{C}$ to incorporate appropriate propensity re-weighting functions, multi-calibration also yields target-independent learning, wherein a model trained on a source domain performs well on unseen, future, target domains(approximately) captured by the re-weightings. Formally, multi-calibration with respect to $\mathcal{C}$ bounds $\big|\mathbb{E}_{(x,y)\sim \mathcal{D}}[c(f(x),x)\cdot(f(x)-y)]\big|$ for all $c \in \mathcal{C}$. In this work, we view the term $(f(x)-y)$ as just one specific mapping, and explore the power of an enriched class of mappings. We propose \textit{HappyMap}, a generalization of multi-calibration, which yields a wide range of new applications, including a new fairness notion for uncertainty quantification (conformal prediction), a novel technique for conformal prediction under covariate shift, and a different approach to analyzing missing data, while also yielding a unified understanding of several existing seemingly disparate algorithmic fairness notions and target-independent learning approaches. We give a single \textit{HappyMap} meta-algorithm that captures all these results, together with a sufficiency condition for its success.

Xinming Tu, James Zou, Weijie J. Su et al.

The rapid advances of large language models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT, are revolutionizing data science and statistics. These state-of-the-art tools can streamline complex processes. As a result, it reshapes the role of data scientists. We argue that LLMs are transforming the responsibilities of data scientists, shifting their focus from hands-on coding, data-wrangling and conducting standard analyses to assessing and managing analyses performed by these automated AIs. This evolution of roles is reminiscent of the transition from a software engineer to a product manager. We illustrate this transition with concrete data science case studies using LLMs in this paper. These developments necessitate a meaningful evolution in data science education. Pedagogy must now place greater emphasis on cultivating diverse skillsets among students, such as LLM-informed creativity, critical thinking, AI-guided programming. LLMs can also play a significant role in the classroom as interactive teaching and learning tools, contributing to personalized education. This paper discusses the opportunities, resources and open challenges for each of these directions. As with any transformative technology, integrating LLMs into education calls for careful consideration. While LLMs can perform repetitive tasks efficiently, it's crucial to remember that their role is to supplement human intelligence and creativity, not to replace it. Therefore, the new era of data science education should balance the benefits of LLMs while fostering complementary human expertise and innovations. In conclusion, the rise of LLMs heralds a transformative period for data science and its education. This paper seeks to shed light on the emerging trends, potential opportunities, and challenges accompanying this paradigm shift, hoping to spark further discourse and investigation into this exciting, uncharted territory.

Jianguo Huang, Huajun Xi, Linjun Zhang et al.

Conformal prediction is a statistical framework that generates prediction sets containing ground-truth labels with a desired coverage guarantee. The predicted probabilities produced by machine learning models are generally miscalibrated, leading to large prediction sets in conformal prediction. To address this issue, we propose a novel algorithm named $\textit{Sorted Adaptive Prediction Sets}$ (SAPS), which discards all the probability values except for the maximum softmax probability. The key idea behind SAPS is to minimize the dependence of the non-conformity score on the probability values while retaining the uncertainty information. In this manner, SAPS can produce compact prediction sets and communicate instance-wise uncertainty. Extensive experiments validate that SAPS not only lessens the prediction sets but also broadly enhances the conditional coverage rate of prediction sets.

Puheng Li, James Zou, Linjun Zhang

Algorithmic fairness plays an increasingly critical role in machine learning research. Several group fairness notions and algorithms have been proposed. However, the fairness guarantee of existing fair classification methods mainly depends on specific data distributional assumptions, often requiring large sample sizes, and fairness could be violated when there is a modest number of samples, which is often the case in practice. In this paper, we propose FaiREE, a fair classification algorithm that can satisfy group fairness constraints with finite-sample and distribution-free theoretical guarantees. FaiREE can be adapted to satisfy various group fairness notions (e.g., Equality of Opportunity, Equalized Odds, Demographic Parity, etc.) and achieve the optimal accuracy. These theoretical guarantees are further supported by experiments on both synthetic and real data. FaiREE is shown to have favorable performance over state-of-the-art algorithms.

Chris Zhu, Sasha Cui, Will Sanok Dufallo et al.

We present an in-depth evaluation of LLMs' ability to negotiate, a central business task that requires strategic reasoning, theory of mind, and economic value creation. To do so, we introduce PieArena, a large-scale negotiation benchmark grounded in multi-agent interactions over realistic scenarios drawn from an MBA negotiation course at an elite business school. We develop a statistically grounded ranking model for continuous negotiation payoffs that produces leaderboards with principled confidence intervals and corrects for experimental asymmetries. We find systematic evidence of human-expert-level performance in which a representative frontier language agent (GPT-5) matches or outperforms trained business-school students, despite a semester of general negotiation instruction and targeted coaching immediately prior to the task. We further study the effects of joint-intentionality agentic scaffolding and observe asymmetric gains, with large improvements for mid- and lower-tier LMs and diminishing returns for frontier LMs. Beyond deal outcomes, PieArena provides a multi-dimensional negotiation behavioral profile, revealing novel cross-model heterogeneity, masked by deal-outcome-only benchmarks, in deception, computation accuracy, instruction compliance, and perceived reputation. Overall, our results suggest that frontier language agents are already intellectually and psychologically capable of deployment in high-stakes economic settings, but deficiencies in robustness and trustworthiness remain open challenges.

Zihan Dong, Zhixian Zhang, Yang Zhou et al.

Evaluating mathematical reasoning in LLMs is constrained by limited benchmark sizes and inherent model stochasticity, yielding high-variance accuracy estimates and unstable rankings across platforms. On difficult problems, an LLM may fail to produce a correct final answer, yet still provide reliable pairwise comparison signals indicating which of two candidate solutions is better. We leverage this observation to design a statistically efficient evaluation framework that combines standard labeled outcomes with pairwise comparison signals obtained by having models judge auxiliary reasoning chains. Treating these comparison signals as control variates, we develop a semiparametric estimator based on the efficient influence function (EIF) for the setting where auxiliary reasoning chains are observed. This yields a one-step estimator that achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound, guarantees strict variance reduction over naive sample averaging, and admits asymptotic normality for principled uncertainty quantification. Across simulations, our one-step estimator substantially improves ranking accuracy, with gains increasing as model output noise grows. Experiments on GPQA Diamond, AIME 2025, and GSM8K further demonstrate more precise performance estimation and more reliable model rankings, especially in small-sample regimes where conventional evaluation is pretty unstable.

Zhixian Zhang, Xiaotian Hou, Linjun Zhang

Performative prediction characterizes environments where predictive models alter the very data distributions they aim to forecast, triggering complex feedback loops. While prior research treats single-agent and multi-agent performativity as distinct phenomena, this paper introduces a unified statistical inference framework that bridges these contexts, treating the former as a special case of the latter. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we put forward the Repeated Risk Minimization (RRM) procedure for estimating the performative stability, and establish a rigorous inferential theory for admitting its asymptotic normality and confirming its asymptotic efficiency. Second, for the performative optimality, we introduce a novel two-step plug-in estimator that integrates the idea of Recalibrated Prediction Powered Inference (RePPI) with Importance Sampling, and further provide formal derivations for the Central Limit Theorems of both the underlying distributional parameters and the plug-in results. The theoretical analysis demonstrates that our estimator achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound and maintains robustness under mild distributional misspecification. This work provides a principled toolkit for reliable estimation and decision-making in dynamic, performative environments.

Wenlong Ji, Weizhe Yuan, Emily Getzen et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as transformative tools in artificial intelligence (AI), exhibiting remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks such as text generation, reasoning, and decision-making. While their success has primarily been driven by advances in computational power and deep learning architectures, emerging problems -- in areas such as uncertainty quantification, decision-making, causal inference, and distribution shift -- require a deeper engagement with the field of statistics. This paper explores potential areas where statisticians can make important contributions to the development of LLMs, particularly those that aim to engender trustworthiness and transparency for human users. Thus, we focus on issues such as uncertainty quantification, interpretability, fairness, privacy, watermarking and model adaptation. We also consider possible roles for LLMs in statistical analysis. By bridging AI and statistics, we aim to foster a deeper collaboration that advances both the theoretical foundations and practical applications of LLMs, ultimately shaping their role in addressing complex societal challenges.

Cynthia Dwork, Pranay Tankala, Linjun Zhang · harvard

We initiate the study of differentially private learning in the proportional dimensionality regime, in which the number of data samples $n$ and problem dimension $d$ approach infinity at rates proportional to one another, meaning that $d/n\toδ$ as $n\to\infty$ for an arbitrary, given constant $δ\in(0,\infty)$. This setting is significantly more challenging than that of all prior theoretical work in high-dimensional differentially private learning, which, despite the name, has assumed that $δ= 0$ or is sufficiently small for problems of sample complexity $O(d)$, a regime typically considered "low-dimensional" or "classical" by modern standards in high-dimensional statistics. We provide sharp theoretical estimates of the error of several well-studied differentially private algorithms for robust linear regression and logistic regression, including output perturbation, objective perturbation, and noisy stochastic gradient descent, in the proportional dimensionality regime. The $1+o(1)$ factor precision of our error estimates enables a far more nuanced understanding of the price of privacy of these algorithms than that afforded by existing, coarser analyses, which are essentially vacuous in the regime we consider. Using our estimates, we discover a previously unobserved "double descent"-like phenomenon in the training error of objective perturbation for robust linear regression. We also identify settings in which output perturbation outperforms objective perturbation on average, and vice versa, demonstrating that the relative performance of these algorithms is less clear-cut than suggested by prior work. To prove our main theorems, we introduce several probabilistic tools that have not previously been used to analyze differentially private learning algorithms, such as a modern Gaussian comparison inequality and recent universality laws with origins in statistical physics.

Yinpeng Cai, Lexin Li, Linjun Zhang

Large Language Models (LLMs) are rapidly gaining enormous popularity in recent years. However, the training of LLMs has raised significant privacy and legal concerns, particularly regarding the distillation and inclusion of copyrighted materials in their training data without proper attribution or licensing, an issue that falls under the broader concern of data misappropriation. In this article, we focus on a specific problem of data misappropriation detection, namely, to determine whether a given LLM has incorporated the data generated by another LLM. We propose embedding watermarks into the copyrighted training data and formulating the detection of data misappropriation as a hypothesis testing problem. We develop a general statistical testing framework, construct test statistics, determine optimal rejection thresholds, and explicitly control type I and type II errors. Furthermore, we establish the asymptotic optimality properties of the proposed tests, and demonstrate the empirical effectiveness through intensive numerical experiments.

Fan Nie, Xiaotian Hou, Shuhang Lin et al.

The propensity of Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate hallucinations and non-factual content undermines their reliability in high-stakes domains, where rigorous control over Type I errors (the conditional probability of incorrectly classifying hallucinations as truthful content) is essential. Despite its importance, formal verification of LLM factuality with such guarantees remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we introduce FactTest, a novel framework that statistically assesses whether a LLM can confidently provide correct answers to given questions with high-probability correctness guarantees. We formulate factuality testing as hypothesis testing problem to enforce an upper bound of Type I errors at user-specified significance levels. Notably, we prove that our framework also ensures strong Type II error control under mild conditions and can be extended to maintain its effectiveness when covariate shifts exist. Our approach is distribution-free and works for any number of human-annotated samples. It is model-agnostic and applies to any black-box or white-box LM. Extensive experiments on question-answering (QA) and multiple-choice benchmarks demonstrate that FactTest effectively detects hallucinations and improves the model's ability to abstain from answering unknown questions, leading to an over 40% accuracy improvement.

Sai Li, Linjun Zhang

Machine learning methods often assume that the test data have the same distribution as the training data. However, this assumption may not hold due to multiple levels of heterogeneity in applications, raising issues in algorithmic fairness and domain generalization. In this work, we address the problem of fair and generalizable machine learning by invariant principles. We propose a training environment-based oracle, FAIRM, which has desirable fairness and domain generalization properties under a diversity-type condition. We then provide an empirical FAIRM with finite-sample theoretical guarantees under weak distributional assumptions. We then develop efficient algorithms to realize FAIRM in linear models and demonstrate the nonasymptotic performance with minimax optimality. We evaluate our method in numerical experiments with synthetic data and MNIST data and show that it outperforms its counterparts.

Federico Bianchi, Yongchan Kwon, Zachary Izzo et al.

How many mistakes do published AI papers contain? Peer-reviewed publications form the foundation upon which new research and knowledge are built. Errors that persist in the literature can propagate unnoticed, creating confusion in follow-up studies and complicating reproducibility. The accelerating pace of research and the increasing demands on the peer-review system make such mistakes harder to detect and avoid. To address this, we developed a Paper Correctness Checker based on GPT-5 to systematically identify mistakes in papers previously published at top AI conferences and journals. Our analysis focuses on objective mistakes-e.g., errors in formulas, derivations, calculations, figures, and tables-that have a clearly verifiable ground truth. We intentionally exclude subjective considerations such as novelty, importance, or writing quality. We find that published papers contain a non-negligible number of objective mistakes and that the average number of mistakes per paper has increased over time-from 3.8 in NeurIPS 2021 to 5.9 in NeurIPS 2025 (55.3% increase); from 4.1 in ICLR 2018 to 5.2 in ICLR 2025; and from 5.0 in TMLR 2022/23 to 5.5 in TMLR 2025. Human experts reviewed 316 potential mistakes identified by the AI Checker and confirmed that 263 were actual mistakes, corresponding to a precision of 83.2%. While most identified issues are relatively minor, correcting them would reduce confusion in the literature and strengthen reproducibility. The AI Checker also surfaced potentially more substantive mistakes that could affect the interpretation of results. Moreover, we show that the AI Checker can propose correct fixes for 75.8% of the identified mistakes. Overall, this study highlights the potential of frontier LLMs to detect and correct objective mistakes in published papers, helping to establish a firmer foundation of knowledge.

Ryumei Nakada, Yichen Xu, Lexin Li et al.

Imbalanced classification and spurious correlation are common challenges in data science and machine learning. Both issues are linked to data imbalance, with certain groups of data samples significantly underrepresented, which in turn would compromise the accuracy, robustness and generalizability of the learned models. Recent advances have proposed leveraging the flexibility and generative capabilities of large language models (LLMs), typically built on transformer architectures, to generate synthetic samples and to augment the observed data. In the context of imbalanced data, LLMs are used to oversample underrepresented groups and have shown promising improvements. However, there is a clear lack of theoretical understanding of such synthetic data approaches. In this article, we develop novel theoretical foundations to systematically study the roles of synthetic samples in addressing imbalanced classification and spurious correlation. Specifically, we first explicitly quantify the benefits of synthetic oversampling. Next, we analyze the scaling dynamics in synthetic data augmentation, and derive the corresponding scaling law. Finally, we demonstrate the capacity of transformer models to generate high-quality synthetic samples. We further conduct extensive numerical experiments to validate the efficacy of the LLM-based synthetic oversampling and augmentation.

Reid McIlroy-Young, Katrina Brown, Conlan Olson et al.

The development of generative language models that can create long and coherent textual outputs via autoregression has lead to a proliferation of uses and a corresponding sweep of analyses as researches work to determine the limitations of this new paradigm. Unlike humans, these 'Large Language Models' (LLMs) are highly sensitive to small changes in their inputs, leading to unwanted inconsistency in their behavior. One problematic inconsistency when LLMs are used to answer multiple-choice questions or analyze multiple inputs is order dependency: the output of an LLM can (and often does) change significantly when sub-sequences are swapped, despite both orderings being semantically identical. In this paper we present Set-Based Prompting, a technique that guarantees the output of an LLM will not have order dependence on a specified set of sub-sequences. We show that this method provably eliminates order dependency, and that it can be applied to any transformer-based LLM to enable text generation that is unaffected by re-orderings. Delving into the implications of our method, we show that, despite our inputs being out of distribution, the impact on expected accuracy is small, where the expectation is over the order of uniformly chosen shuffling of the candidate responses, and usually significantly less in practice. Thus, Set-Based Prompting can be used as a 'dropped-in' method on fully trained models. Finally, we discuss how our method's success suggests that other strong guarantees can be obtained on LLM performance via modifying the input representations.

Xintao Xia, Linjun Zhang, Zhanrui Cai

Privacy preservation has become a critical concern in high-dimensional data analysis due to the growing prevalence of data-driven applications. Since its proposal, sliced inverse regression has emerged as a widely utilized statistical technique to reduce the dimensionality of covariates while maintaining sufficient statistical information. In this paper, we propose optimally differentially private algorithms specifically designed to address privacy concerns in the context of sufficient dimension reduction. We establish lower bounds for differentially private sliced inverse regression in low and high dimensional settings. Moreover, we develop differentially private algorithms that achieve the minimax lower bounds up to logarithmic factors. Through a combination of simulations and real data analysis, we illustrate the efficacy of these differentially private algorithms in safeguarding privacy while preserving vital information within the reduced dimension space. As a natural extension, we can readily offer analogous lower and upper bounds for differentially private sparse principal component analysis, a topic that may also be of potential interest to the statistics and machine learning community.

Maya Burhanpurkar, Zhun Deng, Cynthia Dwork et al.

Predictors map individual instances in a population to the interval $[0,1]$. For a collection $\mathcal C$ of subsets of a population, a predictor is multi-calibrated with respect to $\mathcal C$ if it is simultaneously calibrated on each set in $\mathcal C$. We initiate the study of the construction of scaffolding sets, a small collection $\mathcal S$ of sets with the property that multi-calibration with respect to $\mathcal S$ ensures correctness, and not just calibration, of the predictor. Our approach is inspired by the folk wisdom that the intermediate layers of a neural net learn a highly structured and useful data representation.

Zhe Zhang, Linjun Zhang

In this paper, we develop a general framework to design differentially private expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms in high-dimensional latent variable models, based on the noisy iterative hard-thresholding. We derive the statistical guarantees of the proposed framework and apply it to three specific models: Gaussian mixture, mixture of regression, and regression with missing covariates. In each model, we establish the near-optimal rate of convergence with differential privacy constraints, and show the proposed algorithm is minimax rate optimal up to logarithm factors. The technical tools developed for the high-dimensional setting are then extended to the classic low-dimensional latent variable models, and we propose a near rate-optimal EM algorithm with differential privacy guarantees in this setting. Simulation studies and real data analysis are conducted to support our results.

Jinshuo Dong, Weijie J. Su, Linjun Zhang

Perhaps the single most important use case for differential privacy is to privately answer numerical queries, which is usually achieved by adding noise to the answer vector. The central question, therefore, is to understand which noise distribution optimizes the privacy-accuracy trade-off, especially when the dimension of the answer vector is high. Accordingly, extensive literature has been dedicated to the question and the upper and lower bounds have been matched up to constant factors [BUV18, SU17]. In this paper, we take a novel approach to address this important optimality question. We first demonstrate an intriguing central limit theorem phenomenon in the high-dimensional regime. More precisely, we prove that a mechanism is approximately Gaussian Differentially Private [DRS21] if the added noise satisfies certain conditions. In particular, densities proportional to $\mathrm{e}^{-\|x\|_p^α}$, where $\|x\|_p$ is the standard $\ell_p$-norm, satisfies the conditions. Taking this perspective, we make use of the Cramer--Rao inequality and show an "uncertainty principle"-style result: the product of the privacy parameter and the $\ell_2$-loss of the mechanism is lower bounded by the dimension. Furthermore, the Gaussian mechanism achieves the constant-sharp optimal privacy-accuracy trade-off among all such noises. Our findings are corroborated by numerical experiments.

Linjun Zhang, Zhun Deng, Kenji Kawaguchi et al.

In many machine learning applications, it is important for the model to provide confidence scores that accurately capture its prediction uncertainty. Although modern learning methods have achieved great success in predictive accuracy, generating calibrated confidence scores remains a major challenge. Mixup, a popular yet simple data augmentation technique based on taking convex combinations of pairs of training examples, has been empirically found to significantly improve confidence calibration across diverse applications. However, when and how Mixup helps calibration is still a mystery. In this paper, we theoretically prove that Mixup improves calibration in \textit{high-dimensional} settings by investigating natural statistical models. Interestingly, the calibration benefit of Mixup increases as the model capacity increases. We support our theories with experiments on common architectures and datasets. In addition, we study how Mixup improves calibration in semi-supervised learning. While incorporating unlabeled data can sometimes make the model less calibrated, adding Mixup training mitigates this issue and provably improves calibration. Our analysis provides new insights and a framework to understand Mixup and calibration.

T. Tony Cai, Yichen Wang, Linjun Zhang

We propose differentially private algorithms for parameter estimation in both low-dimensional and high-dimensional sparse generalized linear models (GLMs) by constructing private versions of projected gradient descent. We show that the proposed algorithms are nearly rate-optimal by characterizing their statistical performance and establishing privacy-constrained minimax lower bounds for GLMs. The lower bounds are obtained via a novel technique, which is based on Stein's Lemma and generalizes the tracing attack technique for privacy-constrained lower bounds. This lower bound argument can be of independent interest as it is applicable to general parametric models. Simulated and real data experiments are conducted to demonstrate the numerical performance of our algorithms.

Linjun Zhang, Rong Ma, T. Tony Cai et al.

This paper studies the high-dimensional mixed linear regression (MLR) where the output variable comes from one of the two linear regression models with an unknown mixing proportion and an unknown covariance structure of the random covariates. Building upon a high-dimensional EM algorithm, we propose an iterative procedure for estimating the two regression vectors and establish their rates of convergence. Based on the iterative estimators, we further construct debiased estimators and establish their asymptotic normality. For individual coordinates, confidence intervals centered at the debiased estimators are constructed. Furthermore, a large-scale multiple testing procedure is proposed for testing the regression coefficients and is shown to control the false discovery rate (FDR) asymptotically. Simulation studies are carried out to examine the numerical performance of the proposed methods and their superiority over existing methods. The proposed methods are further illustrated through an analysis of a dataset of multiplex image cytometry, which investigates the interaction networks among the cellular phenotypes that include the expression levels of 20 epitopes or combinations of markers.

Zhun Deng, Cynthia Dwork, Jialiang Wang et al.

Robust optimization has been widely used in nowadays data science, especially in adversarial training. However, little research has been done to quantify how robust optimization changes the optimizers and the prediction losses comparing to standard training. In this paper, inspired by the influence function in robust statistics, we introduce the Adversarial Influence Function (AIF) as a tool to investigate the solution produced by robust optimization. The proposed AIF enjoys a closed-form and can be calculated efficiently. To illustrate the usage of AIF, we apply it to study model sensitivity -- a quantity defined to capture the change of prediction losses on the natural data after implementing robust optimization. We use AIF to analyze how model complexity and randomized smoothing affect the model sensitivity with respect to specific models. We further derive AIF for kernel regressions, with a particular application to neural tangent kernels, and experimentally demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed AIF. Lastly, the theories of AIF will be extended to distributional robust optimization.

Jin Cao, Yibo Zhao, Linjun Zhang et al.

Many data we collect today are in tabular form, with rows as records and columns as attributes associated with each record. Understanding the structural relationship in tabular data can greatly facilitate the data science process. Traditionally, much of this relational information is stored in table schema and maintained by its creators, usually domain experts. In this paper, we develop automated methods to uncover deep relationships in a single data table without expert or domain knowledge. Our method can decompose a data table into layers of smaller tables, revealing its deep structure. The key to our approach is a computationally lightweight forward addition algorithm that we developed to recursively extract the functional dependencies between table columns that are scalable to tables with many columns. With our solution, data scientists will be provided with automatically generated, data-driven insights when exploring new data sets.