Jana de Wiljes

Amirhossein Taghvaei, Jana de Wiljes, Prashant G. Mehta et al.

This paper is concerned with the filtering problem in continuous-time. Three algorithmic solution approaches for this problem are reviewed: (i) the classical Kalman-Bucy filter which provides an exact solution for the linear Gaussian problem, (ii) the ensemble Kalman-Bucy filter (EnKBF) which is an approximate filter and represents an extension of the Kalman-Bucy filter to nonlinear problems, and (iii) the feedback particle filter (FPF) which represents an extension of the EnKBF and furthermore provides for an consistent solution in the general nonlinear, non-Gaussian case. The common feature of the three algorithms is the gain times error formula to implement the update step (to account for conditioning due to the observations) in the filter. In contrast to the commonly used sequential Monte Carlo methods, the EnKBF and FPF avoid the resampling of the particles in the importance sampling update step. Moreover, the feedback control structure provides for error correction potentially leading to smaller simulation variance and improved stability properties. The paper also discusses the issue of non-uniqueness of the filter update formula and formulates a novel approximation algorithm based on ideas from optimal transport and coupling of measures. Performance of this and other algorithms is illustrated for a numerical example.

Walter Acevedo, Jana de Wiljes, Sebastian Reich

Particle filters (also called sequential Monte Carlo methods) are widely used for state and parameter estimation problems in the context of nonlinear evolution equations. The recently proposed ensemble transform particle filter (ETPF) (S.~Reich, {\it A non-parametric ensemble transform method for Bayesian inference}, SIAM J.~Sci.~Comput., 35, (2013), pp. A2013--A2014) replaces the resampling step of a standard particle filter by a linear transformation which allows for a hybridization of particle filters with ensemble Kalman filters and renders the resulting hybrid filters applicable to spatially extended systems. However, the linear transformation step is computationally expensive and leads to an underestimation of the ensemble spread for small and moderate ensemble sizes. Here we address both of these shortcomings by developing second-order accurate extensions of the ETPF. These extensions allow one in particular to replace the exact solution of a linear transport problem by its Sinkhorn approximation. It is also demonstrated that the nonlinear ensemble transform filter (NETF) arises as a special case of our general framework. We illustrate the performance of the second-order accurate filters for the chaotic Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 models and a dynamic scene-viewing model. The numerical results for the Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 models demonstrate that significant accuracy improvements can be achieved in comparison to a standard ensemble Kalman filter and the ETPF for small to moderate ensemble sizes. The numerical results for the scene-viewing model reveal, on the other hand, that second-order corrections can lead to statistically inconsistent samples from the posterior parameter distribution.

Angwenyi David, Jana de Wiljes, Sebastian Reich

Simultaneous state and parameter estimation arises from various applicational areas but presents a major computational challenge. Most available Markov chain or sequential Monte Carlo techniques are applicable to relatively low dimensional problems only. Alternative methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter or other ensemble transform filters have, on the other hand, been successfully applied to high dimensional state estimation problems. In this paper, we propose an extension of these techniques to high dimensional state space models which depend on a few unknown parameters. More specifically, we combine the ensemble Kalman-Bucy filter for the continuous-time filtering problem with a generalized ensemble transform particle filter for intermittent parameter updates. We demonstrate the performance of this two stage update filter for a wave equation with unknown wave velocity parameter.

Emma Hannula, Jana de Wiljes, Matthew T. Moores et al.

Bayesian inference is a powerful tool for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in dynamical systems. However, for nonlinear oscillator networks such as Kuramoto models, widely used to study synchronization phenomena in physics, biology, and engineering, inference is often computationally prohibitive due to high-dimensional state spaces and intractable likelihood functions. We present an amortized Bayesian inference approach that learns a neural approximation of the posterior from simulated phase dynamics, enabling fast, scalable inference without repeated sampling or optimization. Applied to synthetic Kuramoto networks, the method shows promising results in approximating posterior distributions and capturing uncertainty, with computational savings compared to traditional Bayesian techniques. These findings suggest that amortized inference is a practical and flexible framework for uncertainty-aware analysis of oscillator networks.

Emma Hannula, Arttu Häkkinen, Antti Solonen et al.

Making the control of building heating systems more energy efficient is crucial for reducing global energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Traditional rule-based control methods use a static, outdoor temperature-dependent heating curve to regulate heat input. This open-loop approach fails to account for both the current state of the system (indoor temperature) and free heat gains, such as solar radiation, often resulting in poor thermal comfort and overheating. Model Predictive Control (MPC) addresses these drawbacks by using predictive modeling to optimize heating based on a building's learned thermal behavior, current system state, and weather forecasts. However, current industrial MPC solutions often employ simplified physics-inspired indoor temperature models, sacrificing accuracy for robustness and interpretability. While purely data-driven models offer superior predictive performance and therefore more accurate control, they face challenges such as a lack of transparency. To bridge this gap, we propose a partially stochastic deep learning (DL) architecture, dubbed LSTM+BNN, for building-specific indoor temperature modeling. Unlike most studies that evaluate model performance through simulations or limited test buildings, our experiments across a comprehensive dataset of 100 real-world buildings, under various weather conditions, demonstrate that LSTM+BNN outperforms an industry-proven reference model, reducing the average prediction error measured as RMSE by more than 40% for the 48-hour prediction horizon of interest. Unlike deterministic DL approaches, LSTM+BNN offers a critical advantage by enabling pre-assessment of model competency for control optimization through uncertainty quantification. Thus, the proposed model shows significant potential to improve thermal comfort and energy efficiency achieved with heating MPC solutions.

David J. Albers, Tell D. Bennett, Jana de Wiljes et al.

Identifying the effects of mechanical ventilation strategies and protocols in critical care requires analyzing data from heterogeneous patient-ventilator systems within the context of the clinical decision-making environment. This research develops a framework to help understand the consequences of mechanical ventilation (MV) and adjunct care decisions on patient outcome from observations of critical care patients receiving MV. Developing an understanding of and improving critical care respiratory management requires the analysis of existing secondary-use clinical data to generate hypotheses about advantageous variations and adaptations of current care. This work introduces a perspective of the joint patient-ventilator-care systems (so-called J6) to develop a scalable method for analyzing data and trajectories of these complex systems. To that end, breath behaviors are analyzed using evolutionary game theory (EGT), which generates the necessary quantitative precursors for deeper analysis through probabilistic and stochastic machinery such as reinforcement learning. This result is one step along the pathway toward MV optimization and personalization. The EGT-based process is analytically validated on synthetic data to reveal potential caveats before proceeding to real-world ICU data applications that expose complexities of the data-generating process J6. The discussion includes potential developments toward a state transition model for the simulating effects of MV decision using empirical and game-theoretic elements.

Nazanin Abedini, Jana de Wiljes, Svetlana Dubinkina

State estimation that combines observational data with mathematical models is central to many applications and is commonly addressed through filtering methods, such as ensemble Kalman filters. In this article, we examine the signal-tracking performance of a continuous ensemble Kalman filtering under fixed, randomised, and adaptively varying partial observations. Rigorous bounds are established for the expected signal-tracking error relative to the randomness of the observation operator. In addition, we propose a sequential learning scheme that adaptively determines the dimension of a state subspace sufficient to ensure bounded filtering error, by balancing observation complexity with estimation accuracy. Beyond error control, the adaptive scheme provides a systematic approach to identifying the appropriate size of the filter-relevant subspace of the underlying dynamics.

Corinna Maier, Niklas Hartung, Charlotte Kloft et al.

Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) using therapeutic drug/biomarker monitoring offers the opportunity to significantly improve the efficacy and safety of drug therapies. Current strategies comprise model-informed dosing tables or are based on maximum a-posteriori estimates. These approaches, however, lack a quantification of uncertainty and/or consider only part of the available patient-specific information. We propose three novel approaches for MIPD employing Bayesian data assimilation (DA) and/or reinforcement learning (RL) to control neutropenia, the major dose-limiting side effect in anticancer chemotherapy. These approaches have the potential to substantially reduce the incidence of life-threatening grade 4 and subtherapeutic grade 0 neutropenia compared to existing approaches. We further show that RL allows to gain further insights by identifying patient factors that drive dose decisions. Due to its flexibility, the proposed combined DA-RL approach can easily be extended to integrate multiple endpoints or patient-reported outcomes, thereby promising important benefits for future personalized therapies.