Ayan Kumar Ghosh

Md Asifuzzaman Jishan, Vikas Singh, Ayan Kumar Ghosh et al.

This study applies Bayesian models to predict hotel booking cancellations, a key challenge affecting resource allocation, revenue, and customer satisfaction in the hospitality industry. Using a Kaggle dataset with 36,285 observations and 17 features, Bayesian Logistic Regression and Beta-Binomial models were implemented. The logistic model, applied to 12 features and 5,000 randomly selected observations, outperformed the Beta-Binomial model in predictive accuracy. Key predictors included the number of adults, children, stay duration, lead time, car parking space, room type, and special requests. Model evaluation using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV) confirmed strong alignment between observed and predicted outcomes, demonstrating the model's robustness. Special requests and parking availability were found to be the strongest predictors of cancellation. This Bayesian approach provides a valuable tool for improving booking management and operational efficiency in the hotel industry.

Md Shahabub Alam, Md Asifuzzaman Jishan, Ayan Kumar Ghosh

Heat pump systems are critical components in modern energy-efficient buildings, yet their operational stress detection remains challenging due to complex thermodynamic interactions and limited real-world data. This paper presents a novel Physics-Guided Deep Neural Network (PG-DNN) approach for heat pump stress classification using the When2Heat dataset, containing 131,483 samples with 656 features across 26 European countries. The methodology integrates physics-guided feature selection and class definition with a deep neural network architecture featuring 5 hidden layers and dual regularization strategies. The model achieves 78.1\% test accuracy and 78.5% validation accuracy, demonstrating significant improvements over baseline approaches: +5.0% over shallow networks, +4.0% over limited feature sets, and +2.0% over single regularization strategies. Comprehensive ablation studies validate the effectiveness of physics-guided feature selection, variable thresholding for realistic class distribution, and cross-country energy pattern analysis. The proposed system provides a production-ready solution for heat pump stress detection with 181,348 parameters and 720 seconds training time on AMD Ryzen 9 7950X with RTX 4080 hardware.