Svetla Slavova

Aaron D. Mullen, Daniel R. Harris, Svetla Slavova et al.

Time series forecasting has applications across domains and industries, especially in healthcare, but the technical expertise required to analyze data, build models, and interpret results can be a barrier to using these techniques. This article presents a web platform that makes the process of analyzing and plotting data, training forecasting models, and interpreting and viewing results accessible to researchers and clinicians. Users can upload data and generate plots to showcase their variables and the relationships between them. The platform supports multiple forecasting models and training techniques which are highly customizable according to the user's needs. Additionally, recommendations and explanations can be generated from a large language model that can help the user choose appropriate parameters for their data and understand the results for each model. The goal is to integrate this platform into learning health systems for continuous data collection and inference from clinical pipelines.

Aaron D. Mullen, Daniel R. Harris, Peter Rock et al.

We present efforts in the fields of machine learning and time series forecasting to accurately predict counts of future suspected opioid overdoses recorded by Emergency Medical Services (EMS) in the state of Kentucky. Forecasts help government agencies properly prepare and distribute resources related to opioid overdoses. Our approach uses county and district level aggregations of suspected opioid overdose encounters and forecasts future counts for different time intervals. Models with different levels of complexity were evaluated to minimize forecasting error. A variety of additional covariates relevant to opioid overdoses and public health were tested to determine their impact on model performance. Our evaluation shows that useful predictions can be generated with limited error for different types of regions, and high performance can be achieved using commonly available covariates and relatively simple forecasting models.

Patrick J. Ward, April M. Young, Svetla Slavova et al.

Surveillance of drug overdose deaths relies on death certificates for identification of the substances that caused death. Drugs and drug classes can be identified through the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes present on death certificates. However, ICD-10 codes do not always provide high levels of specificity in drug identification. To achieve more fine-grained identification of substances on a death certificate, the free-text cause of death section, completed by the medical certifier, must be analyzed. Current methods for analyzing free-text death certificates rely solely on look-up tables for identifying specific substances, which must be frequently updated and maintained. To improve identification of drugs on death certificates, a deep learning named-entity recognition model was developed, which achieved an F1-score of 99.13%. This model can identify new drug misspellings and novel substances that are not present on current surveillance look-up tables, enhancing the surveillance of drug overdose deaths.