Jeffery Talbert

Aaron D. Mullen, Daniel R. Harris, Peter Rock et al.

We present efforts in the fields of machine learning and time series forecasting to accurately predict counts of future suspected opioid overdoses recorded by Emergency Medical Services (EMS) in the state of Kentucky. Forecasts help government agencies properly prepare and distribute resources related to opioid overdoses. Our approach uses county and district level aggregations of suspected opioid overdose encounters and forecasts future counts for different time intervals. Models with different levels of complexity were evaluated to minimize forecasting error. A variety of additional covariates relevant to opioid overdoses and public health were tested to determine their impact on model performance. Our evaluation shows that useful predictions can be generated with limited error for different types of regions, and high performance can be achieved using commonly available covariates and relatively simple forecasting models.

Sajjad Fouladvand, Jeffery Talbert, Linda P. Dwoskin et al.

Opioid Use Disorder (OUD) is a public health crisis costing the US billions of dollars annually in healthcare, lost workplace productivity, and crime. Analyzing longitudinal healthcare data is critical in addressing many real-world problems in healthcare. Leveraging the real-world longitudinal healthcare data, we propose a novel multi-stream transformer model called MUPOD for OUD identification. MUPOD is designed to simultaneously analyze multiple types of healthcare data streams, such as medications and diagnoses, by attending to segments within and across these data streams. Our model tested on the data from 392,492 patients with long-term back pain problems showed significantly better performance than the traditional models and recently developed deep learning models.