Siyuan Lu

Dayuan Fu, Jianzhao Huang, Siyuan Lu et al.

Addressing the disparity between forecasts and actual results can enable individuals to expand their thought processes and stimulate self-reflection, thus promoting accurate planning. In this research, we present **PreAct**, an agent framework that integrates **pre**diction, **rea**soning, and **act**ion. By utilizing the information derived from predictions, the large language model (LLM) agent can provide a wider range and more strategically focused reasoning. This leads to more efficient actions that aid the agent in accomplishing intricate tasks. Our experimental results show that PreAct surpasses the ReAct method in completing complex tasks and that PreAct's performance can be further improved when paired with other memory or selection strategy techniques. We presented the model with varying quantities of historical predictions and discovered that these predictions consistently enhance LLM planning.The variances in single-step reasoning between PreAct and ReAct indicate that PreAct indeed has benefits in terms of diversity and strategic orientation over ReAct.

Rui Zhang, Conrad Albrecht, Wei Zhang et al.

Accurately and globally mapping human infrastructure is an important and challenging task with applications in routing, regulation compliance monitoring, and natural disaster response management etc.. In this paper we present progress in developing an algorithmic pipeline and distributed compute system that automates the process of map creation using high resolution aerial images. Unlike previous studies, most of which use datasets that are available only in a few cities across the world, we utilizes publicly available imagery and map data, both of which cover the contiguous United States (CONUS). We approach the technical challenge of inaccurate and incomplete training data adopting state-of-the-art convolutional neural network architectures such as the U-Net and the CycleGAN to incrementally generate maps with increasingly more accurate and more complete labels of man-made infrastructure such as roads and houses. Since scaling the mapping task to CONUS calls for parallelization, we then adopted an asynchronous distributed stochastic parallel gradient descent training scheme to distribute the computational workload onto a cluster of GPUs with nearly linear speed-up.

Cong Feng, Mingjian Cui, Bri-Mathias Hodge et al.

Solar forecasting accuracy is affected by weather conditions, and weather awareness forecasting models are expected to improve the performance. However, it may not be available and reliable to classify different forecasting tasks by using only meteorological weather categorization. In this paper, an unsupervised clustering-based (UC-based) solar forecasting methodology is developed for short-term (1-hour-ahead) global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting. This methodology consists of three parts: GHI time series unsupervised clustering, pattern recognition, and UC-based forecasting. The daily GHI time series is first clustered by an Optimized Cross-validated ClUsteRing (OCCUR) method, which determines the optimal number of clusters and best clustering results. Then, support vector machine pattern recognition (SVM-PR) is adopted to recognize the category of a certain day using the first few hours' data in the forecasting stage. GHI forecasts are generated by the most suitable models in different clusters, which are built by a two-layer Machine learning based Multi-Model (M3) forecasting framework. The developed UC-based methodology is validated by using 1-year of data with six solar features. Numerical results show that (i) UC-based models outperform non-UC (all-in-one) models with the same M3 architecture by approximately 20%; (ii) M3-based models also outperform the single-algorithm machine learning (SAML) models by approximately 20%.

Sergiy Zhuk, Tigran Tchrakian, Albert Akhriev et al.

This paper describes a new algorithm for solar energy forecasting from a sequence of Cloud Optical Depth (COD) images. The algorithm is based on the following simple observation: the dynamics of clouds represented by COD images resembles the motion (transport) of a density in a fluid flow. This suggests that, to forecast the motion of COD images, it is sufficient to forecast the flow. The latter, in turn, can be accomplished by fitting a parametric model of the fluid flow to the COD images observed in the past. Namely, the learning phase of the algorithm is composed of the following steps: (i) given a sequence of COD images, the snapshots of the optical flow are estimated from two consecutive COD images; (ii) these snapshots are then assimilated into a Navier-Stokes Equation (NSE), i.e. an initial velocity field for NSE is selected so that the corresponding NSE' solution is as close as possible to the optical flow snapshots. The prediction phase consists of utilizing a linear transport equation, which describes the propagation of COD images in the fluid flow predicted by NSE, to estimate the future motion of the COD images. The algorithm has been tested on COD images provided by two geostationary operational environmental satellites from NOAA serving the west-hemisphere.