Chao Ning

Han Wang, Chao Ning

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful statistical machine learning tool to construct uncertainty sets with coverage guarantees, which has fueled its extensive adoption in generating prediction regions for decision-making tasks, e.g., Trajectory Optimization (TO) in uncertain environments. However, existing methods predominantly employ a sequential scheme, where decisions rely unidirectionally on the prediction regions, and consequently the information from decision-making fails to be fed back to instruct CP. In this paper, we propose a novel Feedback-Based CP (Fb-CP) framework for shrinking-horizon TO with a joint risk constraint over the entire mission time. Specifically, a CP-based posterior risk calculation method is developed by fully leveraging the realized trajectories to adjust the posterior allowable risk, which is then allocated to future times to update prediction regions. In this way, the information in the realized trajectories is continuously fed back to the CP, enabling attractive feedback-based adjustments of the prediction regions and a provable online improvement in trajectory performance. Furthermore, we theoretically prove that such adjustments consistently maintain the coverage guarantees of the prediction regions, thereby ensuring provable safety. Additionally, we develop a decision-focused iterative risk allocation algorithm with theoretical convergence analysis for allocating the posterior allowable risk which closely aligns with Fb-CP. Furthermore, we extend the proposed method to handle distribution shift. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method are demonstrated through benchmark experiments.

Xutao Ma, Chao Ning, Wenli Du

In recent years, there has been a growing research interest in decision-focused learning, which embeds optimization problems as a layer in learning pipelines and demonstrates a superior performance than the prediction-focused approach. However, for distributionally robust optimization (DRO), a popular paradigm for decision-making under uncertainty, it is still unknown how to embed it as a layer, i.e., how to differentiate decisions with respect to an ambiguity set. In this paper, we develop such differentiable DRO layers for generic mixed-integer DRO problems with parameterized second-order conic ambiguity sets and discuss its extension to Wasserstein ambiguity sets. To differentiate the mixed-integer decisions, we propose a novel dual-view methodology by handling continuous and discrete parts of decisions via different principles. Specifically, we construct a differentiable energy-based surrogate to implement the dual-view methodology and use importance sampling to estimate its gradient. We further prove that such a surrogate enjoys the asymptotic convergency under regularization. As an application of the proposed differentiable DRO layers, we develop a novel decision-focused learning pipeline for contextual distributionally robust decision-making tasks and compare it with the prediction-focused approach in experiments.

Chao Ning, Fengqi You

This paper investigates the problem of designing data-driven stochastic Model Predictive Control (MPC) for linear time-invariant systems under additive stochastic disturbance, whose probability distribution is unknown but can be partially inferred from data. We propose a novel online learning based risk-averse stochastic MPC framework in which Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) constraints on system states are required to hold for a family of distributions called an ambiguity set. The ambiguity set is constructed from disturbance data by leveraging a Dirichlet process mixture model that is self-adaptive to the underlying data structure and complexity. Specifically, the structural property of multimodality is exploit-ed, so that the first- and second-order moment information of each mixture component is incorporated into the ambiguity set. A novel constraint tightening strategy is then developed based on an equivalent reformulation of distributionally ro-bust CVaR constraints over the proposed ambiguity set. As more data are gathered during the runtime of the controller, the ambiguity set is updated online using real-time disturbance data, which enables the risk-averse stochastic MPC to cope with time-varying disturbance distributions. The online variational inference algorithm employed does not require all collected data be learned from scratch, and therefore the proposed MPC is endowed with the guaranteed computational complexity of online learning. The guarantees on recursive feasibility and closed-loop stability of the proposed MPC are established via a safe update scheme. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed MPC.

Chao Ning, Fengqi You

This paper reviews recent advances in the field of optimization under uncertainty via a modern data lens, highlights key research challenges and promise of data-driven optimization that organically integrates machine learning and mathematical programming for decision-making under uncertainty, and identifies potential research opportunities. A brief review of classical mathematical programming techniques for hedging against uncertainty is first presented, along with their wide spectrum of applications in Process Systems Engineering. A comprehensive review and classification of the relevant publications on data-driven distributionally robust optimization, data-driven chance constrained program, data-driven robust optimization, and data-driven scenario-based optimization is then presented. This paper also identifies fertile avenues for future research that focuses on a closed-loop data-driven optimization framework, which allows the feedback from mathematical programming to machine learning, as well as scenario-based optimization leveraging the power of deep learning techniques. Perspectives on online learning-based data-driven multistage optimization with a learning-while-optimizing scheme is presented.