Hao Zeng

Hao Zeng, Wei Zhong, Xingbai Xu

It is important to incorporate spatial geographic information into U.S. presidential election analysis, especially for swing states. The state-level analysis also faces significant challenges of limited spatial data availability. To address the challenges of spatial dependence and small sample sizes in predicting U.S. presidential election results using spatially dependent data, we propose a novel transfer learning framework within the SAR model, called as tranSAR. Classical SAR model estimation often loses accuracy with small target data samples. Our framework enhances estimation and prediction by leveraging information from similar source data. We introduce a two-stage algorithm, consisting of a transferring stage and a debiasing stage, to estimate parameters and establish theoretical convergence rates for the estimators. Additionally, if the informative source data are unknown, we propose a transferable source detection algorithm using spatial residual bootstrap to maintain spatial dependence and derive its detection consistency. Simulation studies show our algorithm substantially improves the classical two-stage least squares estimator. We demonstrate our method's effectiveness in predicting outcomes in U.S. presidential swing states, where it outperforms traditional methods. In addition, our tranSAR model predicts that the Democratic party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Hanbin Zhao, Hao Zeng, Xin Qin et al.

As an important and challenging problem, multi-domain learning (MDL) typically seeks for a set of effective lightweight domain-specific adapter modules plugged into a common domain-agnostic network. Usually, existing ways of adapter plugging and structure design are handcrafted and fixed for all domains before model learning, resulting in the learning inflexibility and computational intensiveness. With this motivation, we propose to learn a data-driven adapter plugging strategy with Neural Architecture Search (NAS), which automatically determines where to plug for those adapter modules. Furthermore, we propose a NAS-adapter module for adapter structure design in a NAS-driven learning scheme, which automatically discovers effective adapter module structures for different domains. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our MDL model against existing approaches under the conditions of comparable performance.