Saumitra Mishra

Sanghamitra Dutta, Jason Long, Saumitra Mishra et al.

Counterfactual explanations inform ways to achieve a desired outcome from a machine learning model. However, such explanations are not robust to certain real-world changes in the underlying model (e.g., retraining the model, changing hyperparameters, etc.), questioning their reliability in several applications, e.g., credit lending. In this work, we propose a novel strategy -- that we call RobX -- to generate robust counterfactuals for tree-based ensembles, e.g., XGBoost. Tree-based ensembles pose additional challenges in robust counterfactual generation, e.g., they have a non-smooth and non-differentiable objective function, and they can change a lot in the parameter space under retraining on very similar data. We first introduce a novel metric -- that we call Counterfactual Stability -- that attempts to quantify how robust a counterfactual is going to be to model changes under retraining, and comes with desirable theoretical properties. Our proposed strategy RobX works with any counterfactual generation method (base method) and searches for robust counterfactuals by iteratively refining the counterfactual generated by the base method using our metric Counterfactual Stability. We compare the performance of RobX with popular counterfactual generation methods (for tree-based ensembles) across benchmark datasets. The results demonstrate that our strategy generates counterfactuals that are significantly more robust (nearly 100% validity after actual model changes) and also realistic (in terms of local outlier factor) over existing state-of-the-art methods.

Jing Ma, Ruocheng Guo, Saumitra Mishra et al.

Counterfactual explanations promote explainability in machine learning models by answering the question "how should an input instance be perturbed to obtain a desired predicted label?". The comparison of this instance before and after perturbation can enhance human interpretation. Most existing studies on counterfactual explanations are limited in tabular data or image data. In this work, we study the problem of counterfactual explanation generation on graphs. A few studies have explored counterfactual explanations on graphs, but many challenges of this problem are still not well-addressed: 1) optimizing in the discrete and disorganized space of graphs; 2) generalizing on unseen graphs; and 3) maintaining the causality in the generated counterfactuals without prior knowledge of the causal model. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel framework CLEAR which aims to generate counterfactual explanations on graphs for graph-level prediction models. Specifically, CLEAR leverages a graph variational autoencoder based mechanism to facilitate its optimization and generalization, and promotes causality by leveraging an auxiliary variable to better identify the underlying causal model. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world graphs validate the superiority of CLEAR over the state-of-the-art methods in different aspects.

Salim I. Amoukou, Emanuele Albini, Tom Bewley et al.

We propose a unified framework for addressing three key challenges of distribution shift: (1) estimating a model's performance on an unlabeled target domain, (2) explaining the shift by identifying the features responsible, and (3) improving the target domain performance. Our method, Entropic Projection Alignment (EPA), aligns the source distribution to the target by matching carefully selected moments while simultaneously minimising the KL divergence from the source. This formulation yields a unique closed-form solution for importance weights, achieving robustness through implicit variance control. Drawing on domain adaptation theory, we establish that moment matching is sufficient for reliable estimation and adaptation, avoiding the need for full density ratio recovery. Extensive experiments, together with strong theoretical guarantees, demonstrate that EPA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines while offering substantial computational efficiency.

Salim I. Amoukou, Saumitra Mishra, Manuela Veloso

Bagging-based ensembles, most notably Adaptive Random Forests, are among the strongest performers for learning from data streams. A common denominator across these methods is their reliance on Hoeffding Trees as base learners, which grow decision trees incrementally by testing whether a candidate split is significantly better than its alternatives using concentration inequalities. Despite their empirical success, existing variants lack valid statistical guarantees. Current analyses rely on fixed-sample concentration bounds, while split decisions are made using data-dependent stopping rules, which invalidates their guarantees and can drive the probabilty of incorrect splits to one. We introduce a principled alternative based on anytime-valid inference. Our method provides: (i) anytime-valid control of false splits under arbitrary data streams, including non-stationary settings; (ii) finite commitment time under a predictive advantage; and (iii) under stationary i.i.d. data, risk is monotone decreasing and strictly improves at every split. Empirically, we evaluate both standalone trees and their use within Adaptive Random Forests on non-stationary streams. Our method improves performance while producing substantially smaller trees.

Dan Ley, Saumitra Mishra, Daniele Magazzeni

Counterfactual explanations have been widely studied in explainability, with a range of application dependent methods emerging in fairness, recourse and model understanding. However, the major shortcoming associated with these methods is their inability to provide explanations beyond the local or instance-level. While some works touch upon the notion of a global explanation, typically suggesting to aggregate masses of local explanations in the hope of ascertaining global properties, few provide frameworks that are either reliable or computationally tractable. Meanwhile, practitioners are requesting more efficient and interactive explainability tools. We take this opportunity to investigate existing global methods, with a focus on implementing and improving Actionable Recourse Summaries (AReS), the only known global counterfactual explanation framework for recourse.

Emanuele Albini, Shubham Sharma, Saumitra Mishra et al.

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has received widespread interest in recent years, and two of the most popular types of explanations are feature attributions, and counterfactual explanations. These classes of approaches have been largely studied independently and the few attempts at reconciling them have been primarily empirical. This work establishes a clear theoretical connection between game-theoretic feature attributions, focusing on but not limited to SHAP, and counterfactuals explanations. After motivating operative changes to Shapley values based feature attributions and counterfactual explanations, we prove that, under conditions, they are in fact equivalent. We then extend the equivalency result to game-theoretic solution concepts beyond Shapley values. Moreover, through the analysis of the conditions of such equivalence, we shed light on the limitations of naively using counterfactual explanations to provide feature importances. Experiments on three datasets quantitatively show the difference in explanations at every stage of the connection between the two approaches and corroborate the theoretical findings.

Mahed Abroshan, Saumitra Mishra, Mohammad Mahdi Khalili

One approach for interpreting black-box machine learning models is to find a global approximation of the model using simple interpretable functions, which is called a metamodel (a model of the model). Approximating the black-box with a metamodel can be used to 1) estimate instance-wise feature importance; 2) understand the functional form of the model; 3) analyze feature interactions. In this work, we propose a new method for finding interpretable metamodels. Our approach utilizes Kolmogorov superposition theorem, which expresses multivariate functions as a composition of univariate functions (our primitive parameterized functions). This composition can be represented in the form of a tree. Inspired by symbolic regression, we use a modified form of genetic programming to search over different tree configurations. Gradient descent (GD) is used to optimize the parameters of a given configuration. Our method is a novel memetic algorithm that uses GD not only for training numerical constants but also for the training of building blocks. Using several experiments, we show that our method outperforms recent metamodeling approaches suggested for interpreting black-boxes.

Faisal Hamman, Pasan Dissanayake, Saumitra Mishra et al.

Fine-tuning LLMs on tabular classification tasks can lead to the phenomenon of fine-tuning multiplicity where equally well-performing models make conflicting predictions on the same input. Fine-tuning multiplicity can arise due to variations in the training process, e.g., seed, weight initialization, minor changes to training data, etc., raising concerns about the reliability of Tabular LLMs in high-stakes applications such as finance, hiring, education, healthcare. Our work formalizes this unique challenge of fine-tuning multiplicity in Tabular LLMs and proposes a novel measure to quantify the consistency of individual predictions without expensive model retraining. Our measure quantifies a prediction's consistency by analyzing (sampling) the model's local behavior around that input in the embedding space. Interestingly, we show that sampling in the local neighborhood can be leveraged to provide probabilistic guarantees on prediction consistency under a broad class of fine-tuned models, i.e., inputs with sufficiently high local stability (as defined by our measure) also remain consistent across several fine-tuned models with high probability. We perform experiments on multiple real-world datasets to show that our local stability measure preemptively captures consistency under actual multiplicity across several fine-tuned models, outperforming competing measures.

Tom Bewley, Salim I. Amoukou, Emanuele Albini et al.

Changes in input distribution can induce shifts in the average predictions of machine learning models. Such prediction shifts may impact downstream business outcomes (e.g. a bank's loan approval rate), so understanding their causes can be crucial. We propose \ours{}: a Shapley value method for attributing prediction shifts to changes in the conditional probabilities of interpretable subgroups of data, where these subgroups are defined by the structure of decision trees. We initially apply this method to single decision trees, providing exact explanations based on conditional probability changes at split nodes. Next, we extend it to tree ensembles by selecting the most explanatory tree and accounting for residual effects. Finally, we propose a model-agnostic variant using surrogate trees grown with a novel objective function, allowing application to models like neural networks. While exact computation can be intensive, approximation techniques enable practical application. We show that \ours{} provides simple, faithful, and near-complete explanations of prediction shifts across model classes, aiding model monitoring in dynamic environments.

Yinhan He, Wendy Zheng, Yaochen Zhu et al.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been widely deployed in various real-world applications. However, most GNNs are black-box models that lack explanations. One strategy to explain GNNs is through counterfactual explanation, which aims to find minimum perturbations on input graphs that change the GNN predictions. Existing works on GNN counterfactual explanations primarily concentrate on the local-level perspective (i.e., generating counterfactuals for each individual graph), which suffers from information overload and lacks insights into the broader cross-graph relationships. To address such issues, we propose GlobalGCE, a novel global-level graph counterfactual explanation method. GlobalGCE aims to identify a collection of subgraph mapping rules as counterfactual explanations for the target GNN. According to these rules, substituting certain significant subgraphs with their counterfactual subgraphs will change the GNN prediction to the desired class for most graphs (i.e., maximum coverage). Methodologically, we design a significant subgraph generator and a counterfactual subgraph autoencoder in our GlobalGCE, where the subgraphs and the rules can be effectively generated. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our GlobalGCE compared to existing baselines. Our code can be found at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/GlobalGCE-92E8.

Junqi Jiang, Tom Bewley, Salim I. Amoukou et al.

Test-time scaling improves large language models' (LLMs) performance by allocating more compute budget during inference. To achieve this, existing methods often require intricate modifications to prompting and sampling strategies. In this work, we introduce representation consistency (RC), a test-time scaling method for aggregating answers drawn from multiple candidate responses of an LLM regardless of how they were generated, including variations in prompt phrasing and sampling strategy. RC enhances answer aggregation by not only considering the number of occurrences of each answer in the candidate response set, but also the consistency of the model's internal activations while generating the set of responses leading to each answer. These activations can be either dense (raw model activations) or sparse (encoded via pretrained sparse autoencoders). Our rationale is that if the model's representations of multiple responses converging on the same answer are highly variable, this answer is more likely to be the result of incoherent reasoning and should be down-weighted during aggregation. Importantly, our method only uses cached activations and lightweight similarity computations and requires no additional model queries. Through experiments with four open-source LLMs and four reasoning datasets, we validate the effectiveness of RC for improving task performance during inference, with consistent accuracy improvements (up to 4%) over strong test-time scaling baselines. We also show that consistency in the sparse activation signals aligns well with the common notion of coherent reasoning.

Ngoc Bui, Shubham Sharma, Simran Lamba et al.

Memory and computation remain core bottlenecks in long-horizon LLM inference due to the quadratic cost of self-attention and the ever-growing key-value (KV) cache. Existing strategies for memory-bounded inference, such as quantization, offloading, or heuristic KV eviction, either incur high orchestration costs or rely on unreliable attention-based proxies of importance. We propose TRIM-KV, a novel approach that learns each token's intrinsic importance at creation time via a lightweight retention gate. Each gate predicts a scalar retention score that decays over time, reflecting the long-term utility of the token for a specific layer and head. Tokens with low scores are evicted when the memory budget is exceeded, ensuring that the cache always contains the most critical tokens. TRIM-KV is trained efficiently through distillation from a frozen LLM combined with a capacity loss, requiring only gate fine-tuning and adding negligible inference overhead. Across mathematical reasoning (GSM8K, MATH-500, AIME24), procedural generation (LongProc), conversational long-memory benchmarks (LongMemEval), and long-context understanding (LongBench and SCBench), TRIM-KV consistently outperforms strong eviction and learnable retrieval baselines, especially in low-memory regimes. Remarkably, it even surpasses full-cache models in some settings, showing that selective retention can serve as a form of regularization, suppressing noise from uninformative tokens. Qualitative analyses further reveal that learned retention scores align with human intuition, naturally recovering heuristics such as sink tokens, sliding windows, and gist compression without explicit design. Beyond efficiency, retention scores provide insights into layer- and head-specific roles, suggesting a new path toward LLM interpretability.

Yunong Liu, Cristobal Eyzaguirre, Manling Li et al. · salesforce, stanford

Shape assembly is a ubiquitous task in daily life, integral for constructing complex 3D structures like IKEA furniture. While significant progress has been made in developing autonomous agents for shape assembly, existing datasets have not yet tackled the 4D grounding of assembly instructions in videos, essential for a holistic understanding of assembly in 3D space over time. We introduce IKEA Video Manuals, a dataset that features 3D models of furniture parts, instructional manuals, assembly videos from the Internet, and most importantly, annotations of dense spatio-temporal alignments between these data modalities. To demonstrate the utility of IKEA Video Manuals, we present five applications essential for shape assembly: assembly plan generation, part-conditioned segmentation, part-conditioned pose estimation, video object segmentation, and furniture assembly based on instructional video manuals. For each application, we provide evaluation metrics and baseline methods. Through experiments on our annotated data, we highlight many challenges in grounding assembly instructions in videos to improve shape assembly, including handling occlusions, varying viewpoints, and extended assembly sequences.

Junqi Jiang, Tom Bewley, Saumitra Mishra et al.

Reward models (RMs) are a crucial component in the alignment of large language models' (LLMs) outputs with human values. RMs approximate human preferences over possible LLM responses to the same prompt by predicting and comparing reward scores. However, as they are typically modified versions of LLMs with scalar output heads, RMs are large black boxes whose predictions are not explainable. More transparent RMs would enable improved trust in the alignment of LLMs. In this work, we propose to use contrastive explanations to explain any binary response comparison made by an RM. Specifically, we generate a diverse set of new comparisons similar to the original one to characterise the RM's local behaviour. The perturbed responses forming the new comparisons are generated to explicitly modify manually specified high-level evaluation attributes, on which analyses of RM behaviour are grounded. In quantitative experiments, we validate the effectiveness of our method for finding high-quality contrastive explanations. We then showcase the qualitative usefulness of our method for investigating global sensitivity of RMs to each evaluation attribute, and demonstrate how representative examples can be automatically extracted to explain and compare behaviours of different RMs. We see our method as a flexible framework for RM explanation, providing a basis for more interpretable and trustworthy LLM alignment.

Salim I. Amoukou, Tom Bewley, Saumitra Mishra et al.

We introduce a novel approach for detecting distribution shifts that negatively impact the performance of machine learning models in continuous production environments, which requires no access to ground truth data labels. It builds upon the work of Podkopaev and Ramdas [2022], who address scenarios where labels are available for tracking model errors over time. Our solution extends this framework to work in the absence of labels, by employing a proxy for the true error. This proxy is derived using the predictions of a trained error estimator. Experiments show that our method has high power and false alarm control under various distribution shifts, including covariate and label shifts and natural shifts over geography and time.

Anna Hedström, Salim I. Amoukou, Tom Bewley et al.

We introduce Mechanistic Error Reduction with Abstention (MERA), a principled framework for steering language models (LMs) to mitigate errors through selective, adaptive interventions. Unlike existing methods that rely on fixed, manually tuned steering strengths, often resulting in under or oversteering, MERA addresses these limitations by (i) optimising the intervention direction, and (ii) calibrating when, and how much to steer, thereby provably improving performance or abstaining when no confident correction is possible. Experiments across diverse datasets, and LM families demonstrate safe, effective, non-degrading error correction, and that MERA outperforms existing baselines. Moreover, MERA can be applied on top of existing steering techniques to further enhance their performance, establishing it as a general-purpose, and efficient approach to mechanistic activation steering.

Wenzhuo Tang, Haitao Mao, Danial Dervovic et al.

Models for natural language and images benefit from data scaling behavior: the more data fed into the model, the better they perform. This 'better with more' phenomenon enables the effectiveness of large-scale pre-training on vast amounts of data. However, current graph pre-training methods struggle to scale up data due to heterogeneity across graphs. To achieve effective data scaling, we aim to develop a general model that is able to capture diverse data patterns of graphs and can be utilized to adaptively help the downstream tasks. To this end, we propose UniAug, a universal graph structure augmentor built on a diffusion model. We first pre-train a discrete diffusion model on thousands of graphs across domains to learn the graph structural patterns. In the downstream phase, we provide adaptive enhancement by conducting graph structure augmentation with the help of the pre-trained diffusion model via guided generation. By leveraging the pre-trained diffusion model for structure augmentation, we consistently achieve performance improvements across various downstream tasks in a plug-and-play manner. To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first demonstration of a data-scaling graph structure augmentor on graphs across domains.

Sanjay Kariyappa, Freddy Lécué, Saumitra Mishra et al.

This paper proposes Progressive Inference - a framework to compute input attributions to explain the predictions of decoder-only sequence classification models. Our work is based on the insight that the classification head of a decoder-only Transformer model can be used to make intermediate predictions by evaluating them at different points in the input sequence. Due to the causal attention mechanism, these intermediate predictions only depend on the tokens seen before the inference point, allowing us to obtain the model's prediction on a masked input sub-sequence, with negligible computational overheads. We develop two methods to provide sub-sequence level attributions using this insight. First, we propose Single Pass-Progressive Inference (SP-PI), which computes attributions by taking the difference between consecutive intermediate predictions. Second, we exploit a connection with Kernel SHAP to develop Multi Pass-Progressive Inference (MP-PI). MP-PI uses intermediate predictions from multiple masked versions of the input to compute higher quality attributions. Our studies on a diverse set of models trained on text classification tasks show that SP-PI and MP-PI provide significantly better attributions compared to prior work.

Dan Ley, Saumitra Mishra, Daniele Magazzeni

Counterfactual explanations have been widely studied in explainability, with a range of application dependent methods prominent in fairness, recourse and model understanding. The major shortcoming associated with these methods, however, is their inability to provide explanations beyond the local or instance-level. While many works touch upon the notion of a global explanation, typically suggesting to aggregate masses of local explanations in the hope of ascertaining global properties, few provide frameworks that are both reliable and computationally tractable. Meanwhile, practitioners are requesting more efficient and interactive explainability tools. We take this opportunity to propose Global & Efficient Counterfactual Explanations (GLOBE-CE), a flexible framework that tackles the reliability and scalability issues associated with current state-of-the-art, particularly on higher dimensional datasets and in the presence of continuous features. Furthermore, we provide a unique mathematical analysis of categorical feature translations, utilising it in our method. Experimental evaluation with publicly available datasets and user studies demonstrate that GLOBE-CE performs significantly better than the current state-of-the-art across multiple metrics (e.g., speed, reliability).

Faisal Hamman, Erfaun Noorani, Saumitra Mishra et al.

There is an emerging interest in generating robust counterfactual explanations that would remain valid if the model is updated or changed even slightly. Towards finding robust counterfactuals, existing literature often assumes that the original model $m$ and the new model $M$ are bounded in the parameter space, i.e., $\|\text{Params}(M){-}\text{Params}(m)\|{<}Δ$. However, models can often change significantly in the parameter space with little to no change in their predictions or accuracy on the given dataset. In this work, we introduce a mathematical abstraction termed $\textit{naturally-occurring}$ model change, which allows for arbitrary changes in the parameter space such that the change in predictions on points that lie on the data manifold is limited. Next, we propose a measure -- that we call $\textit{Stability}$ -- to quantify the robustness of counterfactuals to potential model changes for differentiable models, e.g., neural networks. Our main contribution is to show that counterfactuals with sufficiently high value of $\textit{Stability}$ as defined by our measure will remain valid after potential $\textit{naturally-occurring}$ model changes with high probability (leveraging concentration bounds for Lipschitz function of independent Gaussians). Since our quantification depends on the local Lipschitz constant around a data point which is not always available, we also examine practical relaxations of our proposed measure and demonstrate experimentally how they can be incorporated to find robust counterfactuals for neural networks that are close, realistic, and remain valid after potential model changes. This work also has interesting connections with model multiplicity, also known as, the Rashomon effect.

Saumitra Mishra, Sanghamitra Dutta, Jason Long et al.

There exist several methods that aim to address the crucial task of understanding the behaviour of AI/ML models. Arguably, the most popular among them are local explanations that focus on investigating model behaviour for individual instances. Several methods have been proposed for local analysis, but relatively lesser effort has gone into understanding if the explanations are robust and accurately reflect the behaviour of underlying models. In this work, we present a survey of the works that analysed the robustness of two classes of local explanations (feature importance and counterfactual explanations) that are popularly used in analysing AI/ML models in finance. The survey aims to unify existing definitions of robustness, introduces a taxonomy to classify different robustness approaches, and discusses some interesting results. Finally, the survey introduces some pointers about extending current robustness analysis approaches so as to identify reliable explainability methods.

Saumitra Mishra, Emmanouil Benetos, Bob L. Sturm et al.

One way to analyse the behaviour of machine learning models is through local explanations that highlight input features that maximally influence model predictions. Sensitivity analysis, which involves analysing the effect of input perturbations on model predictions, is one of the methods to generate local explanations. Meaningful input perturbations are essential for generating reliable explanations, but there exists limited work on what such perturbations are and how to perform them. This work investigates these questions in the context of machine listening models that analyse audio. Specifically, we use a state-of-the-art deep singing voice detection (SVD) model to analyse whether explanations from SoundLIME (a local explanation method) are sensitive to how the method perturbs model inputs. The results demonstrate that SoundLIME explanations are sensitive to the content in the occluded input regions. We further propose and demonstrate a novel method for quantitatively identifying suitable content type(s) for reliably occluding inputs of machine listening models. The results for the SVD model suggest that the average magnitude of input mel-spectrogram bins is the most suitable content type for temporal explanations.

Saumitra Mishra, Daniel Stoller, Emmanouil Benetos et al.

One way to interpret trained deep neural networks (DNNs) is by inspecting characteristics that neurons in the model respond to, such as by iteratively optimising the model input (e.g., an image) to maximally activate specific neurons. However, this requires a careful selection of hyper-parameters to generate interpretable examples for each neuron of interest, and current methods rely on a manual, qualitative evaluation of each setting, which is prohibitively slow. We introduce a new metric that uses Fréchet Inception Distance (FID) to encourage similarity between model activations for real and generated data. This provides an efficient way to evaluate a set of generated examples for each setting of hyper-parameters. We also propose a novel GAN-based method for generating explanations that enables an efficient search through the input space and imposes a strong prior favouring realistic outputs. We apply our approach to a classification model trained to predict whether a music audio recording contains singing voice. Our results suggest that this proposed metric successfully selects hyper-parameters leading to interpretable examples, avoiding the need for manual evaluation. Moreover, we see that examples synthesised to maximise or minimise the predicted probability of singing voice presence exhibit vocal or non-vocal characteristics, respectively, suggesting that our approach is able to generate suitable explanations for understanding concepts learned by a neural network.

Bhusan Chettri, Saumitra Mishra, Bob L. Sturm et al.

The second Automatic Speaker Verification Spoofing and Countermeasures challenge (ASVspoof 2017) focused on "replay attack" detection. The best deep-learning systems to compete in ASVspoof 2017 used Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) as a feature extractor. In this paper, we study their performance in an end-to-end setting. We find that these architectures show poor generalization in the evaluation dataset, but find a compact architecture that shows good generalization on the development data. We demonstrate that for this dataset it is not easy to obtain a similar level of generalization on both the development and evaluation data. This leads to a variety of open questions about what the differences are in the data; why these are more evident in an end-to-end setting; and how these issues can be overcome by increasing the training data.