Jianguo Wu

Duo Wang, Qiong Wu, Jianguo Wu et al.

Accurate Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) prediction on checkout page is crucial in instant logistics for enhancing user satisfaction, optimizing dispatching, and controlling operational costs. In international on-demand delivery platforms, where ETA data originates from diverse countries or regions with different patterns, multi-domain modeling is of great importance and has been widely adopted. However, existing methods still face three critical challenges in real-world deployment. First, current multi-domain models struggle to generalize to completely unseen domains, failing to achieve zero-shot prediction during the initial cold-start phase. Second, cross-domain feature spaces are often assumed to be consistent, whereas new domains commonly suffer from structural missingness of offline (statistical) features due to the lack of historical data. Third, such feature missingness often compels industrial systems to model mature and cold-start domains separately, hindering knowledge transfer and increasing maintenance overhead. To address these challenges, we propose \textbf{UME}, a \textbf{U}nified \textbf{M}eta-generalization framework for \textbf{E}TA. Specifically, UME integrates a unified dual-branch architecture with a novel meta-learning mechanism that employs a hypernetwork-based meta learner. By leveraging domain-level knowledge and instance-level context, the meta learner empowers three meta modules to dynamically modulate feature gating, expert attention, and final prediction, capturing cross-domain correlations and facilitating intra-domain adaptation. A knowledge distillation strategy is further introduce to enhance performance. UME has now been deployed in Meituan-keeta delivery platform (the largest international food delivery platform in China). Extensive offline experiments and online A/B tests demonstrate that UME significantly outperforms existing baselines.

Cheolhei Lee, Xing Wang, Xiaowei Yue et al.

Problem definition: Data-driven models in machine learning have enabled efficient management of production systems. However, a majority of machine learning models are devoted to modeling the mean response or average pattern, which is inappropriate for studying abnormal extreme events that are often of primary interest in aircraft manufacturing. Since extreme events from heavy-tailed distributions give rise to prohibitive expenditures in system management, sophisticated extreme models are urgently needed to analyze complex extreme risks. Engineering applications of extreme models usually focus on individual extreme events, which is insufficient for complex systems with correlations. Methodology/results: We introduce an extreme spatial model for multi-output response control systems that efficiently captures the dynamics using a bilinear function on two spatial domains for control variables and measurement locations. Marginal parameter modeling and extremal dependence have been investigated. In addition, an efficient graph-assisted composite likelihood estimation and corresponding computational algorithms are developed to cope with high-dimensional outputs. The application to composite aircraft production shows that the proposed model enables comprehensive analyses with superior predictive performance on extreme events compared to canonical methods. Managerial implications: Our method shows how to use an extreme spatial model for predicting extreme events and managing extreme risks in complex production systems such as aircraft. This can help achieve better quality management and operation safety in aircraft production systems and beyond.

Ruiyu Xu, Chao Wang, Yongxiang Li et al.

Dictionary learning is an effective tool for pattern recognition and classification of time series data. Among various dictionary learning techniques, the dynamic time warping (DTW) is commonly used for dealing with temporal delays, scaling, transformation, and many other kinds of temporal misalignments issues. However, the DTW suffers overfitting or information loss due to its discrete nature in aligning time series data. To address this issue, we propose a generalized time warping invariant dictionary learning algorithm in this paper. Our approach features a generalized time warping operator, which consists of linear combinations of continuous basis functions for facilitating continuous temporal warping. The integration of the proposed operator and the dictionary learning is formulated as an optimization problem, where the block coordinate descent method is employed to jointly optimize warping paths, dictionaries, and sparseness coefficients. The optimized results are then used as hyperspace distance measures to feed classification and clustering algorithms. The superiority of the proposed method in terms of dictionary learning, classification, and clustering is validated through ten sets of public datasets in comparing with various benchmark methods.

Duo Wang, Xinming Wang, Chao Wang et al.

Multi-output Gaussian process (MGP) models have attracted significant attention for their flexibility and uncertainty-quantification capabilities, and have been widely adopted in multi-source transfer learning scenarios due to their ability to capture inter-task correlations. However, they still face several challenges in transfer learning. First, the input spaces of the source and target domains are often heterogeneous, which makes direct knowledge transfer difficult. Second, potential prior knowledge and physical information are typically ignored during heterogeneous transfer, hampering the utilization of domain-specific insights and leading to unstable mappings. Third, inappropriate information sharing among target and sources can easily lead to negative transfer. Traditional models fail to address these issues in a unified way. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes a Double-Regularized Heterogeneous Gaussian Process framework (R^2-HGP). Specifically, a trainable prior probability mapping model is first proposed to align the heterogeneous input domains. The resulting aligned inputs are treated as latent variables, upon which a multi-source transfer GP model is constructed and the entire structure is integrated into a novel conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) based framework. Physical insights is further incorporated as a regularization term to ensure that the alignment results adhere to known physical knowledge. Next, within the multi-source transfer GP model, a sparsity penalty is imposed on the transfer coefficients, enabling the model to adaptively select the most informative source outputs and suppress negative transfer. Extensive simulations and real-world engineering case studies validate the effectiveness of our R^2-HGP, demonstrating consistent superiority over state-of-the-art benchmarks across diverse evaluation metrics.

Ji Song, Xing Wang, Jianguo Wu et al.

In the realm of diverse high-dimensional data, images play a significant role across various processes of manufacturing systems where efficient image anomaly detection has emerged as a core technology of utmost importance. However, when applied to textured defect images, conventional anomaly detection methods have limitations including non-negligible misidentification, low robustness, and excessive reliance on large-scale and structured datasets. This paper proposes a texture basis integrated smooth decomposition (TBSD) approach, which is targeted at efficient anomaly detection in textured images with smooth backgrounds and sparse anomalies. Mathematical formulation of quasi-periodicity and its theoretical properties are investigated for image texture estimation. TBSD method consists of two principal processes: the first process learns the texture basis functions to effectively extract quasi-periodic texture patterns; the subsequent anomaly detection process utilizes that texture basis as prior knowledge to prevent texture misidentification and capture potential anomalies with high accuracy.The proposed method surpasses benchmarks with less misidentification, smaller training dataset requirement, and superior anomaly detection performance on both simulation and real-world datasets.

Xinming Wang, Simon Mak, John Miller et al.

A critical bottleneck for scientific progress is the costly nature of computer simulations for complex systems. Surrogate models provide an appealing solution: such models are trained on simulator evaluations, then used to emulate and quantify uncertainty on the expensive simulator at unexplored inputs. In many applications, one often has available data on related systems. For example, in designing a new jet turbine, there may be existing studies on turbines with similar configurations. A key question is how information from such ``source'' systems can be transferred for effective surrogate training on the ``target'' system of interest. We thus propose a new LOcal transfer Learning Gaussian Process (LOL-GP) model, which leverages a carefully-designed Gaussian process to transfer such information for surrogate modeling. The key novelty of the LOL-GP is a latent regularization model, which identifies regions where transfer should be performed and regions where it should be avoided. Such a ``local transfer'' property is present in many scientific systems: at certain parameters, systems may behave similarly and thus transfer is beneficial; at other parameters, they may behave differently and thus transfer is detrimental. By accounting for local transfer, the LOL-GP can temper the risk of ``negative transfer'', i.e., the risk of worsening predictive performance from information transfer. We derive a Gibbs sampling algorithm for efficient posterior predictive sampling on the LOL-GP, for both the multi-source and multi-fidelity transfer settings. We then show, via a suite of numerical experiments and an application for jet turbine design, the improved surrogate performance of the LOL-GP over existing methods.

Cheolhei Lee, Xing Wang, Jianguo Wu et al.

Active learning is a subfield of machine learning that is devised for design and modeling of systems with highly expensive sampling costs. Industrial and engineering systems are generally subject to physics constraints that may induce fatal failures when they are violated, while such constraints are frequently underestimated in active learning. In this paper, we develop a novel active learning method that avoids failures considering implicit physics constraints that govern the system. The proposed approach is driven by two tasks: the safe variance reduction explores the safe region to reduce the variance of the target model, and the safe region expansion aims to extend the explorable region exploiting the probabilistic model of constraints. The global acquisition function is devised to judiciously optimize acquisition functions of two tasks, and its theoretical properties are provided. The proposed method is applied to the composite fuselage assembly process with consideration of material failure using the Tsai-wu criterion, and it is able to achieve zero-failure without the knowledge of explicit failure regions.

Cheolhei Lee, Kaiwen Wang, Jianguo Wu et al.

Active learning is a subfield of machine learning that focuses on improving the data collection efficiency of expensive-to-evaluate systems. Especially, active learning integrated surrogate modeling has shown remarkable performance in computationally demanding engineering systems. However, the existence of heterogeneity in underlying systems may adversely affect the performance of active learning. In order to improve the learning efficiency under this regime, we propose the partitioned active learning that seeks the most informative design points for partitioned Gaussian process modeling of heterogeneous systems. The proposed active learning consists of two systematic subsequent steps: the global searching scheme accelerates the exploration of active learning by investigating the most uncertain design space, and the local searching exploits the circumscribed information induced by the local GP. We also propose Cholesky update driven numerical remedies for our active learning to address the computational complexity challenge. The proposed method is applied to numerical simulations and two real-world case studies about (i) the cost-efficient automatic fuselage shape control in aerospace manufacturing; and (ii) the optimal design of tribocorrosion-resistant alloys in materials science. The results show that our approach outperforms benchmark methods with respect to prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.

Cheolhei Lee, Jianguo Wu, Wenjia Wang et al.

Developing machine learning enabled smart manufacturing is promising for composite structures assembly process. To improve production quality and efficiency of the assembly process, accurate predictive analysis on dimensional deviations and residual stress of the composite structures is required. The novel composite structures assembly involves two challenges: (i) the highly nonlinear and anisotropic properties of composite materials; and (ii) inevitable uncertainty in the assembly process. To overcome those problems, we propose a neural network Gaussian process model considering input uncertainty for composite structures assembly. Deep architecture of our model allows us to approximate a complex process better, and consideration of input uncertainty enables robust modeling with complete incorporation of the process uncertainty. Based on simulation and case study, the NNGPIU can outperform other benchmark methods when the response function is nonsmooth and nonlinear. Although we use composite structure assembly as an example, the proposed methodology can be applicable to other engineering systems with intrinsic uncertainties.

Ruiyu Xu, Jianguo Wu, Xiaowei Yue et al.

High-dimensional streaming data are becoming increasingly ubiquitous in many fields. They often lie in multiple low-dimensional subspaces, and the manifold structures may change abruptly on the time scale due to pattern shift or occurrence of anomalies. However, the problem of detecting the structural changes in a real-time manner has not been well studied. To fill this gap, we propose a dynamic sparse subspace learning approach for online structural change-point detection of high-dimensional streaming data. A novel multiple structural change-point model is proposed and the asymptotic properties of the estimators are investigated. A tuning method based on Bayesian information criterion and change-point detection accuracy is proposed for penalty coefficients selection. An efficient Pruned Exact Linear Time based algorithm is proposed for online optimization and change-point detection. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through several simulation studies and a real case study on gesture data for motion tracking.