Jonathan Giezendanner

Matteo Peduto, Qidong Yang, Jonathan Giezendanner et al.

Accurate marine wind forecasts are essential for safe navigation, ship routing, and energy operations, yet they remain challenging because observations over the ocean are sparse, heterogeneous, and temporally variable. We reformulate wind forecasting as observation-informed correction of a global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Rather than forecasting winds directly, we learn local correction patterns by assimilating the latest in-situ observations to adjust the Global Forecast System (GFS) output. We propose a transformer-based deep learning architecture that (i) handles irregular and time-varying observation sets through masking and set-based attention mechanisms, (ii) conditions predictions on recent observation-forecast pairs via cross-attention, and (iii) employs cyclical time embeddings and coordinate-aware location representations to enable single-pass inference at arbitrary spatial coordinates. We evaluate our model over the Atlantic Ocean using observations from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) as reference. The model reduces GFS 10-meter wind RMSE at all lead times up to 48 hours, achieving 45% improvement at 1-hour lead time and 13% improvement at 48-hour lead time. Spatial analyses reveal the most persistent improvements along coastlines and shipping routes, where observations are most abundant. The tokenized architecture naturally accommodates heterogeneous observing platforms (ships, buoys, tide gauges, and coastal stations) and produces both site-specific predictions and basin-scale gridded products in a single forward pass. These results demonstrate a practical, low-latency post-processing approach that complements NWP by learning to correct systematic forecast errors.

Rohit Mukherjee, Hannah K. Friedrich, Beth Tellman et al.

Urban flooding affects lives and infrastructure worldwide. Mapping inundation in complex urban environments from satellite imagery remains challenging due to limited spatial resolution, infrequent acquisitions, and cloud cover. We present Urban Flood Observations (UFO), a global, hand-labeled dataset of post-flood inundation in diverse urban settings. UFO comprises 215 image chips (1024 by 1024 pixels) from 14 flood events between 2017 and 2021, derived from 3 m PlanetScope imagery. Each chip is annotated with two classes: 'inundated' (all visible surface water, including floodwater and pre-existing water bodies (permanent or seasonal)) and 'non-inundated'. To demonstrate the dataset's utility, we trained a segmentation model using leave-one-event-out cross-validation, achieving a mean Intersection over Union (IoU) of 77.3. We also used UFO to evaluate two widely used surface water products, the Sentinel-1-based NASA IMPACT model and Google's 10 m Dynamic World water class, which yielded IoUs of 44.1 and 48.1, respectively. UFO is publicly available to support the development and validation of urban inundation mapping methods.

Jonathan Giezendanner, Qidong Yang, Eric Schmitt et al.

Near-surface atmospheric conditions can differ sharply over tens to hundreds of meters due to land cover and topography, yet this variability is absent from current weather analyses and forecasts. It is unclear whether such meter-scale variability reflects irreducibly chaotic dynamics or contains a component predictable from surface characteristics and large-scale atmospheric forcing. Here we show that a substantial, physically coherent component of meter-scale near-surface weather is statistically recoverable from existing observations. By conditioning coarse atmospheric state on sparse surface station measurements and high-resolution Earth observation data, we infer spatially continuous fields of near-surface wind, temperature, and humidity at 10 m resolution across the contiguous United States. Relative to ERA5, the inferred fields reduce wind error by 29% and temperature and dewpoint error by 6%, while explaining substantially more spatial variance at fixed time steps. They also exhibit physically interpretable structure, including urban heat islands, evapotranspiration-driven humidity contrasts, and wind speed differences across land cover types. Our findings expand the frontier of weather modeling by demonstrating a computationally feasible approach to continental-scale meter-resolution inference. More broadly, they illustrate how conditioning coarse dynamical models on static fine-scale features can reveal previously unresolved components of the Earth system.

Qidong Yang, Qianyu Julie Zhu, Jonathan Giezendanner et al.

Conditional generative models map input variables to complex, high-dimensional distributions, enabling realistic sample generation in a diverse set of domains. A critical challenge with these models is the absence of calibrated uncertainty, which undermines trust in individual outputs for high-stakes applications. To address this issue, we propose a systematic conformal prediction approach tailored to conditional generative models, leveraging density estimation on model-generated samples. We introduce a novel method called CP4Gen, which utilizes clustering-based density estimation to construct prediction sets that are less sensitive to outliers, more interpretable, and of lower structural complexity than existing methods. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets and real-world applications, including climate emulation tasks, demonstrate that CP4Gen consistently achieves superior performance in terms of prediction set volume and structural simplicity. Our approach offers practitioners a powerful tool for uncertainty estimation associated with conditional generative models, particularly in scenarios demanding rigorous and interpretable prediction sets.

Qidong Yang, Jonathan Giezendanner, Daniel Salles Civitarese et al.

Urgent applications like wildfire management and renewable energy generation require precise, localized weather forecasts near the Earth's surface. However, forecasts produced by machine learning models or numerical weather prediction systems are typically generated on large-scale regular grids, where direct downscaling fails to capture fine-grained, near-surface weather patterns. In this work, we propose a multi-modal transformer model trained end-to-end to downscale gridded forecasts to off-grid locations of interest. Our model directly combines local historical weather observations (e.g., wind, temperature, dewpoint) with gridded forecasts to produce locally accurate predictions at various lead times. Multiple data modalities are collected and concatenated at station-level locations, treated as a token at each station. Using self-attention, the token corresponding to the target location aggregates information from its neighboring tokens. Experiments using weather stations across the Northeastern United States show that our model outperforms a range of data-driven and non-data-driven off-grid forecasting methods. They also reveal that direct input of station data provides a phase shift in local weather forecasting accuracy, reducing the prediction error by up to 80% compared to pure gridded data based models. This approach demonstrates how to bridge the gap between large-scale weather models and locally accurate forecasts to support high-stakes, location-sensitive decision-making.

Jonathan Giezendanner, Rohit Mukherjee, Matthew Purri et al.

Mapping floods using satellite data is crucial for managing and mitigating flood risks. Satellite imagery enables rapid and accurate analysis of large areas, providing critical information for emergency response and disaster management. Historical flood data derived from satellite imagery can inform long-term planning, risk management strategies, and insurance-related decisions. The Sentinel-1 satellite is effective for flood detection, but for longer time series, other satellites such as MODIS can be used in combination with deep learning models to accurately identify and map past flood events. We here develop a combined CNN--LSTM deep learning framework to fuse Sentinel-1 derived fractional flooded area with MODIS data in order to infer historical floods over Bangladesh. The results show how our framework outperforms a CNN-only approach and takes advantage of not only space, but also time in order to predict the fractional inundated area. The model is applied to historical MODIS data to infer the past 20 years of inundation extents over Bangladesh and compared to a thresholding algorithm and a physical model. Our fusion model outperforms both models in consistency and capacity to predict peak inundation extents.