Gerda Claeskens

Jing Zhou, Gerda Claeskens, Jelena Bradic

Robust methods, though ubiquitous in practice, are yet to be fully understood in the context of regularized estimation and high dimensions. Even simple questions become challenging very quickly. For example, classical statistical theory identifies equivalence between model-averaged and composite quantile estimation. However, little to nothing is known about such equivalence between methods that encourage sparsity. This paper provides a toolbox to further study robustness in these settings and focuses on prediction. In particular, we study optimally weighted model-averaged as well as composite $l_1$-regularized estimation. Optimal weights are determined by minimizing the asymptotic mean squared error. This approach incorporates the effects of regularization, without the assumption of perfect selection, as is often used in practice. Such weights are then optimal for prediction quality. Through an extensive simulation study, we show that no single method systematically outperforms others. We find, however, that model-averaged and composite quantile estimators often outperform least-squares methods, even in the case of Gaussian model noise. Real data application witnesses the method's practical use through the reconstruction of compressed audio signals.

Jelena Bradic, Gerda Claeskens, Thomas Gueuning

Many scientific and engineering challenges -- ranging from pharmacokinetic drug dosage allocation and personalized medicine to marketing mix (4Ps) recommendations -- require an understanding of the unobserved heterogeneity in order to develop the best decision making-processes. In this paper, we develop a hypothesis test and the corresponding p-value for testing for the significance of the homogeneous structure in linear mixed models. A robust matching moment construction is used for creating a test that adapts to the size of the model sparsity. When unobserved heterogeneity at a cluster level is constant, we show that our test is both consistent and unbiased even when the dimension of the model is extremely high. Our theoretical results rely on a new family of adaptive sparse estimators of the fixed effects that do not require consistent estimation of the random effects. Moreover, our inference results do not require consistent model selection. We showcase that moment matching can be extended to nonlinear mixed effects models and to generalized linear mixed effects models. In numerical and real data experiments, we find that the developed method is extremely accurate, that it adapts to the size of the underlying model and is decidedly powerful in the presence of irrelevant covariates.