Anubha Goel

Anubha Goel, Juho Kanniainen

Graph neural networks have achieved strong performance on graph-structured data, but their effectiveness depends heavily on the quality of the observed graph. In real applications, graph topology is often imperfect: noisy edges may connect unrelated nodes, while missing edges may prevent useful information from being propagated. Existing robust graph learning methods mainly address this problem by removing suspicious edges or by learning a new graph structure during training. However, edge removal alone cannot recover missing connections, and graph structure learning may introduce additional optimization complexity. In this paper, we propose Topology-Aware Gaussian Repair (TAGR), a simple graph repair framework for robust message passing in graph neural networks. Instead of learning a dense adjacency matrix, TAGR constructs a sparse feature-neighborhood graph using an adaptive Gaussian kernel and combines it with a topology-aware residual correction of the observed graph. The Gaussian repair component introduces auxiliary edges between feature-similar nodes, while the residual correction preserves and reweights the original topology according to local feature and structural consistency. The repaired graph can be used directly with standard graph neural networks without changing their architectures. Extensive experiments on benchmark citation networks show that TAGR improves the robustness of GNNs under both noisy-edge and missing-edge settings. The analysis further show that Gaussian feature-neighborhood repair provides the main robustness gain, while topology-aware residual correction improves stability when the observed graph is incomplete. These results suggest that effective graph robustness can be achieved through lightweight sparse graph repair rather than dense graph structure learning.

Anubha Goel, Puneet Pasricha, Juho Kanniainen

This study is the first to analyze the performance of a time-series foundation AI model for Value-at-Risk (VaR), which essentially forecasts the left-tail quantiles of returns. Foundation models, pre-trained on diverse datasets, can be applied in a zero-shot setting with minimal data or further improved through finetuning. We compare Google's TimesFM model to conventional parametric and non-parametric models, including GARCH and Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS), using 19 years of daily returns from the SP 100 index and its constituents. Backtesting with over 8.5 years of out-of-sample data shows that the fine-tuned foundation model consistently outperforms traditional methods in actual-over-expected ratios. For the quantile score loss function, it performs comparably to the best econometric model, GAS. Overall, the foundation model ranks as the best or among the top performers across the 0.01, 0.025, 0.05, and 0.1 quantile forecasting. Fine-tuning significantly improves accuracy, showing that zero-shot use is not optimal for VaR.

Anubha Goel, Damir Filipović, Puneet Pasricha

This paper uses topological data analysis (TDA) tools and introduces a data-driven clustering-based stock selection strategy tailored for sparse portfolio construction. Our asset selection strategy exploits the topological features of stock price movements to select a subset of topologically similar (different) assets for a sparse index tracking (Markowitz) portfolio. We introduce new distance measures, which serve as an input to the clustering algorithm, on the space of persistence diagrams and landscapes that consider the time component of a time series. We conduct an empirical analysis on the S\&P index from 2009 to 2022, including a study on the COVID-19 data to validate the robustness of our methodology. Our strategy to integrate TDA with the clustering algorithm significantly enhanced the performance of sparse portfolios across various performance measures in diverse market scenarios.