Zoheyr Doctor

Elizabeth Teng, Ugur Demir, Zoheyr Doctor et al.

Knowledge about the internal physical structure of stars is crucial to understanding their evolution. The novel binary population synthesis code POSYDON includes a module for interpolating the stellar and binary properties of any system at the end of binary MESA evolution based on a pre-computed set of models. In this work, we present a new emulation method for predicting stellar profiles, i.e., the internal stellar structure along the radial axis, using machine learning techniques. We use principal component analysis for dimensionality reduction and fully-connected feed-forward neural networks for making predictions. We find accuracy to be comparable to that of nearest neighbor approximation, with a strong advantage in terms of memory and storage efficiency. By providing a versatile framework for modeling stellar internal structure, the emulation method presented here will enable faster simulations of higher physical fidelity, offering a foundation for a wide range of large-scale population studies of stellar and binary evolution.

Brittany V. Lancellotti, Jordan M. Malof, Aaron Davitt et al.

Global greenhouse gas emissions estimates are essential for monitoring and mitigation planning. Yet most datasets lack one or more characteristics that enhance their actionability, such as accuracy, global coverage, high spatial and temporal resolution, and frequent updates. To address these gaps, we present Climate TRACE (climatetrace.org), an open-access platform delivering global emissions estimates with enhanced detail, coverage, and timeliness. Climate TRACE synthesizes existing emissions data, prioritizing accuracy, coverage, and resolution, and fills gaps using sector-specific estimation approaches. The dataset is the first to provide globally comprehensive emissions estimates for individual sources (e.g., individual power plants) for all anthropogenic emitting sectors. The dataset spans January 1, 2021, to the present, with a two-month reporting lag and monthly updates. The open-access platform enables non-technical audiences to engage with detailed emissions datasets for most subnational governments worldwide. Climate TRACE supports data-driven climate action at scales where decisions are made, representing a major breakthrough for emissions accounting and mitigation.

Kyle Akira Rocha, Jeff J. Andrews, Christopher P. L. Berry et al.

Binary stars undergo a variety of interactions and evolutionary phases, critical for predicting and explaining observed properties. Binary population synthesis with full stellar-structure and evolution simulations are computationally expensive requiring a large number of mass-transfer sequences. The recently developed binary population synthesis code POSYDON incorporates grids of MESA binary star simulations which are then interpolated to model large-scale populations of massive binaries. The traditional method of computing a high-density rectilinear grid of simulations is not scalable for higher-dimension grids, accounting for a range of metallicities, rotation, and eccentricity. We present a new active learning algorithm, psy-cris, which uses machine learning in the data-gathering process to adaptively and iteratively select targeted simulations to run, resulting in a custom, high-performance training set. We test psy-cris on a toy problem and find the resulting training sets require fewer simulations for accurate classification and regression than either regular or randomly sampled grids. We further apply psy-cris to the target problem of building a dynamic grid of MESA simulations, and we demonstrate that, even without fine tuning, a simulation set of only $\sim 1/4$ the size of a rectilinear grid is sufficient to achieve the same classification accuracy. We anticipate further gains when algorithmic parameters are optimized for the targeted application. We find that optimizing for classification only may lead to performance losses in regression, and vice versa. Lowering the computational cost of producing grids will enable future versions of POSYDON to cover more input parameters while preserving interpolation accuracies.