Benjamin Recht

Sara Fridovich-Keil, Giacomo Meanti, Frederik Warburg et al.

We introduce k-planes, a white-box model for radiance fields in arbitrary dimensions. Our model uses d choose 2 planes to represent a d-dimensional scene, providing a seamless way to go from static (d=3) to dynamic (d=4) scenes. This planar factorization makes adding dimension-specific priors easy, e.g. temporal smoothness and multi-resolution spatial structure, and induces a natural decomposition of static and dynamic components of a scene. We use a linear feature decoder with a learned color basis that yields similar performance as a nonlinear black-box MLP decoder. Across a range of synthetic and real, static and dynamic, fixed and varying appearance scenes, k-planes yields competitive and often state-of-the-art reconstruction fidelity with low memory usage, achieving 1000x compression over a full 4D grid, and fast optimization with a pure PyTorch implementation. For video results and code, please see https://sarafridov.github.io/K-Planes.

Laura Balzano, Robert Nowak, Benjamin Recht

This work presents GROUSE (Grassmanian Rank-One Update Subspace Estimation), an efficient online algorithm for tracking subspaces from highly incomplete observations. GROUSE requires only basic linear algebraic manipulations at each iteration, and each subspace update can be performed in linear time in the dimension of the subspace. The algorithm is derived by analyzing incremental gradient descent on the Grassmannian manifold of subspaces. With a slight modification, GROUSE can also be used as an online incremental algorithm for the matrix completion problem of imputing missing entries of a low-rank matrix. GROUSE performs exceptionally well in practice both in tracking subspaces and as an online algorithm for matrix completion.

Jessica Dai, Sean Garcia, Emma Pierson et al.

ChatGPT was launched on November 30, 2022; the r/ChatGPT subreddit was created just one day later. Since then, chatbot-based AI products have gone from niche proofs-of-concept to widely-used household names. However, the ways in which adoption has developed among the public remains poorly understood. In this paper, we develop a framework for using social media as a data source for understanding the societal impact of widely-adopted consumer AI products, and propose PuLSE (Public and Longitudinal Signals for Evaluation), a general approach to monitoring for societally-impactful trends in real time. We apply our framework to conduct what is, to the best of our knowledge, the first longitudinal study of r/ChatGPT. We find that, overall, r/ChatGPT posts over time illustrate the normalization of ChatGPT as an everyday consumer product rather than an exceptional, novel technology. However, our retrospective analysis also finds that posts about using ChatGPT for mental health support, and posts about developing emotional attachments to ChatGPT, both rise steadily in frequency almost immediately after the launch of GPT-4o in May 2024. We show that PuLSE can detect the increase in emotional engagement as early as October 2024 -- months before OpenAI made any (public) acknowledgment of this impact. An interactive site to explore our results and methods, updated daily with live data, is available at rchatgpt-pulse.github.io.

Stephen Tu, Shivaram Venkataraman, Ashia C. Wilson et al.

Recent work by Nesterov and Stich showed that momentum can be used to accelerate the rate of convergence for block Gauss-Seidel in the setting where a fixed partitioning of the coordinates is chosen ahead of time. We show that this setting is too restrictive, constructing instances where breaking locality by running non-accelerated Gauss-Seidel with randomly sampled coordinates substantially outperforms accelerated Gauss-Seidel with any fixed partitioning. Motivated by this finding, we analyze the accelerated block Gauss-Seidel algorithm in the random coordinate sampling setting. Our analysis captures the benefit of acceleration with a new data-dependent parameter which is well behaved when the matrix sub-blocks are well-conditioned. Empirically, we show that accelerated Gauss-Seidel with random coordinate sampling provides speedups for large scale machine learning tasks when compared to non-accelerated Gauss-Seidel and the classical conjugate-gradient algorithm.

Mihaela Curmei, Andreas Haupt, Dylan Hadfield-Menell et al.

Designing recommendation systems that serve content aligned with time varying preferences requires proper accounting of the feedback effects of recommendations on human behavior and psychological condition. We argue that modeling the influence of recommendations on people's preferences must be grounded in psychologically plausible models. We contribute a methodology for developing grounded dynamic preference models. We demonstrate this method with models that capture three classic effects from the psychology literature: Mere-Exposure, Operant Conditioning, and Hedonic Adaptation. We conduct simulation-based studies to show that the psychological models manifest distinct behaviors that can inform system design. Our study has two direct implications for dynamic user modeling in recommendation systems. First, the methodology we outline is broadly applicable for psychologically grounding dynamic preference models. It allows us to critique recent contributions based on their limited discussion of psychological foundation and their implausible predictions. Second, we discuss implications of dynamic preference models for recommendation systems evaluation and design. In an example, we show that engagement and diversity metrics may be unable to capture desirable recommendation system performance.

Stephen Tu, Ross Boczar, Benjamin Recht

Given a stable SISO LTI system $G$, we investigate the problem of estimating the $\mathcal{H}_\infty$-norm of $G$, denoted $||G||_\infty$, when $G$ is only accessible via noisy observations. Wahlberg et al. recently proposed a nonparametric algorithm based on the power method for estimating the top eigenvalue of a matrix. In particular, by applying a clever time-reversal trick, Wahlberg et al. implement the power method on the top left $n \times n$ corner $T_n$ of the Toeplitz (convolution) operator associated with $G$. In this paper, we prove sharp non-asymptotic bounds on the necessary length $n$ needed so that $||T_n||$ is an $\varepsilon$-additive approximation of $||G||_\infty$. Furthermore, in the process of demonstrating the sharpness of our bounds, we construct a simple family of finite impulse response (FIR) filters where the number of timesteps needed for the power method is arbitrarily worse than the number of timesteps needed for parametric FIR identification via least-squares to achieve the same $\varepsilon$-additive approximation.

Sara Fridovich-Keil, Fabrizio Valdivia, Gordon Wetzstein et al.

In computed tomography (CT), the forward model consists of a linear Radon transform followed by an exponential nonlinearity based on the attenuation of light according to the Beer-Lambert Law. Conventional reconstruction often involves inverting this nonlinearity as a preprocessing step and then solving a convex inverse problem. However, this nonlinear measurement preprocessing required to use the Radon transform is poorly conditioned in the vicinity of high-density materials, such as metal. This preprocessing makes CT reconstruction methods numerically sensitive and susceptible to artifacts near high-density regions. In this paper, we study a technique where the signal is directly reconstructed from raw measurements through the nonlinear forward model. Though this optimization is nonconvex, we show that gradient descent provably converges to the global optimum at a geometric rate, perfectly reconstructing the underlying signal with a near minimal number of random measurements. We also prove similar results in the under-determined setting where the number of measurements is significantly smaller than the dimension of the signal. This is achieved by enforcing prior structural information about the signal through constraints on the optimization variables. We illustrate the benefits of direct nonlinear CT reconstruction with cone-beam CT experiments on synthetic and real 3D volumes. We show that this approach reduces metal artifacts compared to a commercial reconstruction of a human skull with metal dental crowns.

Karl Krauth, Sarah Dean, Alex Zhao et al.

Recommender systems operate in an inherently dynamical setting. Past recommendations influence future behavior, including which data points are observed and how user preferences change. However, experimenting in production systems with real user dynamics is often infeasible, and existing simulation-based approaches have limited scale. As a result, many state-of-the-art algorithms are designed to solve supervised learning problems, and progress is judged only by offline metrics. In this work we investigate the extent to which offline metrics predict online performance by evaluating eleven recommenders across six controlled simulated environments. We observe that offline metrics are correlated with online performance over a range of environments. However, improvements in offline metrics lead to diminishing returns in online performance. Furthermore, we observe that the ranking of recommenders varies depending on the amount of initial offline data available. We study the impact of adding exploration strategies, and observe that their effectiveness, when compared to greedy recommendation, is highly dependent on the recommendation algorithm. We provide the environments and recommenders described in this paper as Reclab: an extensible ready-to-use simulation framework at https://github.com/berkeley-reclab/RecLab.

Maxim Raginsky, Benjamin Recht

The goal of machine learning is to find models that minimize prediction error on data that has not yet been seen. Its operational paradigm assumes access to a dataset $S$ and articulates a scheme for evaluating how well a given model performs on an arbitrary sample. The sample can be $S$ (in which case we speak of ``in-sample'' performance) or some entirely new $S'$ (in which case we speak of ``out-of-sample'' performance). Traditional analysis of generalization assumes that both in- and out-of-sample data are i.i.d.\ draws from an infinite population. However, these probabilistic assumptions cannot be verified even in principle. This paper presents an alternative view of generalization through the lens of sensitivity analysis of solutions of optimization problems to perturbations in the problem data. Under this framework, generalization bounds are obtained by purely deterministic means and take the form of variational principles that relate in-sample and out-of-sample evaluations through an error term that quantifies how close out-of-sample data are to in-sample data. Statistical assumptions can then be used \textit{ex post} to characterize the situations when this error term is small (either on average or with high probability).

Jessica Dai, Paula Gradu, Inioluwa Deborah Raji et al.

When an individual reports a negative interaction with some system, how can their personal experience be contextualized within broader patterns of system behavior? We study the reporting database problem, where individual reports of adverse events arrive sequentially, and are aggregated over time. In this work, our goal is to identify whether there are subgroups--defined by any combination of relevant features--that are disproportionately likely to experience harmful interactions with the system. We formalize this problem as a sequential hypothesis test, and identify conditions on reporting behavior that are sufficient for making inferences about disparities in true rates of harm across subgroups. We show that algorithms for sequential hypothesis tests can be applied to this problem with a standard multiple testing correction. We then demonstrate our method on real-world datasets, including mortgage decisions and vaccine side effects; on each, our method (re-)identifies subgroups known to experience disproportionate harm using only a fraction of the data that was initially used to discover them.

Juan Carlos Perdomo, Benjamin Recht

This tutorial provides a survey of algorithms for Defensive Forecasting, where predictions are derived not by prognostication but by correcting past mistakes. Pioneered by Vovk, Defensive Forecasting frames the goal of prediction as a sequential game, and derives predictions to minimize metrics no matter what outcomes occur. We present an elementary introduction to this general theory and derive simple, near-optimal algorithms for online learning, calibration, prediction with expert advice, and online conformal prediction.

Damek Davis, Benjamin Recht

We show that several popular algorithms for reinforcement learning in large language models with binary rewards can be viewed as stochastic gradient ascent on a monotone transform of the probability of a correct answer given a prompt. In particular, the transformation associated with rejection sampling algorithms is the logarithm and that associated with the GRPO algorithm is the arcsine of the square root.

Alex Yu, Sara Fridovich-Keil, Matthew Tancik et al.

We introduce Plenoxels (plenoptic voxels), a system for photorealistic view synthesis. Plenoxels represent a scene as a sparse 3D grid with spherical harmonics. This representation can be optimized from calibrated images via gradient methods and regularization without any neural components. On standard, benchmark tasks, Plenoxels are optimized two orders of magnitude faster than Neural Radiance Fields with no loss in visual quality.

Mihaela Curmei, Sarah Dean, Benjamin Recht

In this work, we consider how preference models in interactive recommendation systems determine the availability of content and users' opportunities for discovery. We propose an evaluation procedure based on stochastic reachability to quantify the maximum probability of recommending a target piece of content to an user for a set of allowable strategic modifications. This framework allows us to compute an upper bound on the likelihood of recommendation with minimal assumptions about user behavior. Stochastic reachability can be used to detect biases in the availability of content and diagnose limitations in the opportunities for discovery granted to users. We show that this metric can be computed efficiently as a convex program for a variety of practical settings, and further argue that reachability is not inherently at odds with accuracy. We demonstrate evaluations of recommendation algorithms trained on large datasets of explicit and implicit ratings. Our results illustrate how preference models, selection rules, and user interventions impact reachability and how these effects can be distributed unevenly.

Esther Rolf, Theodora Worledge, Benjamin Recht et al.

Collecting more diverse and representative training data is often touted as a remedy for the disparate performance of machine learning predictors across subpopulations. However, a precise framework for understanding how dataset properties like diversity affect learning outcomes is largely lacking. By casting data collection as part of the learning process, we demonstrate that diverse representation in training data is key not only to increasing subgroup performances, but also to achieving population level objectives. Our analysis and experiments describe how dataset compositions influence performance and provide constructive results for using trends in existing data, alongside domain knowledge, to help guide intentional, objective-aware dataset design.

Moritz Hardt, Benjamin Recht

This graduate textbook on machine learning tells a story of how patterns in data support predictions and consequential actions. Starting with the foundations of decision making, we cover representation, optimization, and generalization as the constituents of supervised learning. A chapter on datasets as benchmarks examines their histories and scientific bases. Self-contained introductions to causality, the practice of causal inference, sequential decision making, and reinforcement learning equip the reader with concepts and tools to reason about actions and their consequences. Throughout, the text discusses historical context and societal impact. We invite readers from all backgrounds; some experience with probability, calculus, and linear algebra suffices.

Tengyuan Liang, Benjamin Recht

This paper provides elementary analyses of the regret and generalization of minimum-norm interpolating classifiers (MNIC). The MNIC is the function of smallest Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space norm that perfectly interpolates a label pattern on a finite data set. We derive a mistake bound for MNIC and a regularized variant that holds for all data sets. This bound follows from elementary properties of matrix inverses. Under the assumption that the data is independently and identically distributed, the mistake bound implies that MNIC generalizes at a rate proportional to the norm of the interpolating solution and inversely proportional to the number of data points. This rate matches similar rates derived for margin classifiers and perceptrons. We derive several plausible generative models where the norm of the interpolating classifier is bounded or grows at a rate sublinear in $n$. We also show that as long as the population class conditional distributions are sufficiently separable in total variation, then MNIC generalizes with a fast rate.

Andrew J. Taylor, Victor D. Dorobantu, Sarah Dean et al.

Modern nonlinear control theory seeks to endow systems with properties such as stability and safety, and has been deployed successfully across various domains. Despite this success, model uncertainty remains a significant challenge in ensuring that model-based controllers transfer to real world systems. This paper develops a data-driven approach to robust control synthesis in the presence of model uncertainty using Control Certificate Functions (CCFs), resulting in a convex optimization based controller for achieving properties like stability and safety. An important benefit of our framework is nuanced data-dependent guarantees, which in principle can yield sample-efficient data collection approaches that need not fully determine the input-to-state relationship. This work serves as a starting point for addressing important questions at the intersection of nonlinear control theory and non-parametric learning, both theoretical and in application. We validate the proposed method in simulation with an inverted pendulum in multiple experimental configurations.

Sarah Dean, Andrew J. Taylor, Ryan K. Cosner et al.

Modern nonlinear control theory seeks to develop feedback controllers that endow systems with properties such as safety and stability. The guarantees ensured by these controllers often rely on accurate estimates of the system state for determining control actions. In practice, measurement model uncertainty can lead to error in state estimates that degrades these guarantees. In this paper, we seek to unify techniques from control theory and machine learning to synthesize controllers that achieve safety in the presence of measurement model uncertainty. We define the notion of a Measurement-Robust Control Barrier Function (MR-CBF) as a tool for determining safe control inputs when facing measurement model uncertainty. Furthermore, MR-CBFs are used to inform sampling methodologies for learning-based perception systems and quantify tolerable error in the resulting learned models. We demonstrate the efficacy of MR-CBFs in achieving safety with measurement model uncertainty on a simulated Segway system.

Esther Rolf, Jonathan Proctor, Tamma Carleton et al.

Combining satellite imagery with machine learning (SIML) has the potential to address global challenges by remotely estimating socioeconomic and environmental conditions in data-poor regions, yet the resource requirements of SIML limit its accessibility and use. We show that a single encoding of satellite imagery can generalize across diverse prediction tasks (e.g. forest cover, house price, road length). Our method achieves accuracy competitive with deep neural networks at orders of magnitude lower computational cost, scales globally, delivers label super-resolution predictions, and facilitates characterizations of uncertainty. Since image encodings are shared across tasks, they can be centrally computed and distributed to unlimited researchers, who need only fit a linear regression to their own ground truth data in order to achieve state-of-the-art SIML performance.

Sarah Dean, Benjamin Recht

In order to certify performance and safety, feedback control requires precise characterization of sensor errors. In this paper, we provide guarantees on such feedback systems when sensors are characterized by solving a supervised learning problem. We show a uniform error bound on nonparametric kernel regression under a dynamically-achievable dense sampling scheme. This allows for a finite-time convergence rate on the sub-optimality of using the regressor in closed-loop for waypoint tracking. We demonstrate our results in simulation with simplified unmanned aerial vehicle and autonomous driving examples.

Rohan Taori, Achal Dave, Vaishaal Shankar et al.

We study how robust current ImageNet models are to distribution shifts arising from natural variations in datasets. Most research on robustness focuses on synthetic image perturbations (noise, simulated weather artifacts, adversarial examples, etc.), which leaves open how robustness on synthetic distribution shift relates to distribution shift arising in real data. Informed by an evaluation of 204 ImageNet models in 213 different test conditions, we find that there is often little to no transfer of robustness from current synthetic to natural distribution shift. Moreover, most current techniques provide no robustness to the natural distribution shifts in our testbed. The main exception is training on larger and more diverse datasets, which in multiple cases increases robustness, but is still far from closing the performance gaps. Our results indicate that distribution shifts arising in real data are currently an open research problem. We provide our testbed and data as a resource for future work at https://modestyachts.github.io/imagenet-testbed/ .

Horia Mania, Michael I. Jordan, Benjamin Recht

While the identification of nonlinear dynamical systems is a fundamental building block of model-based reinforcement learning and feedback control, its sample complexity is only understood for systems that either have discrete states and actions or for systems that can be identified from data generated by i.i.d. random inputs. Nonetheless, many interesting dynamical systems have continuous states and actions and can only be identified through a judicious choice of inputs. Motivated by practical settings, we study a class of nonlinear dynamical systems whose state transitions depend linearly on a known feature embedding of state-action pairs. To estimate such systems in finite time identification methods must explore all directions in feature space. We propose an active learning approach that achieves this by repeating three steps: trajectory planning, trajectory tracking, and re-estimation of the system from all available data. We show that our method estimates nonlinear dynamical systems at a parametric rate, similar to the statistical rate of standard linear regression.

John Miller, Karl Krauth, Benjamin Recht et al.

We build four new test sets for the Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) and evaluate the ability of question-answering systems to generalize to new data. Our first test set is from the original Wikipedia domain and measures the extent to which existing systems overfit the original test set. Despite several years of heavy test set re-use, we find no evidence of adaptive overfitting. The remaining three test sets are constructed from New York Times articles, Reddit posts, and Amazon product reviews and measure robustness to natural distribution shifts. Across a broad range of models, we observe average performance drops of 3.8, 14.0, and 17.4 F1 points, respectively. In contrast, a strong human baseline matches or exceeds the performance of SQuAD models on the original domain and exhibits little to no drop in new domains. Taken together, our results confirm the surprising resilience of the holdout method and emphasize the need to move towards evaluation metrics that incorporate robustness to natural distribution shifts.

Esther Rolf, Michael I. Jordan, Benjamin Recht

Observational data are often accompanied by natural structural indices, such as time stamps or geographic locations, which are meaningful to prediction tasks but are often discarded. We leverage semantically meaningful indexing data while ensuring robustness to potentially uninformative or misleading indices. We propose a post-estimation smoothing operator as a fast and effective method for incorporating structural index data into prediction. Because the smoothing step is separate from the original predictor, it applies to a broad class of machine learning tasks, with no need to retrain models. Our theoretical analysis details simple conditions under which post-estimation smoothing will improve accuracy over that of the original predictor. Our experiments on large scale spatial and temporal datasets highlight the speed and accuracy of post-estimation smoothing in practice. Together, these results illuminate a novel way to consider and incorporate the natural structure of index variables in machine learning.

Vaishaal Shankar, Alex Fang, Wenshuo Guo et al.

We investigate the connections between neural networks and simple building blocks in kernel space. In particular, using well established feature space tools such as direct sum, averaging, and moment lifting, we present an algebra for creating "compositional" kernels from bags of features. We show that these operations correspond to many of the building blocks of "neural tangent kernels (NTK)". Experimentally, we show that there is a correlation in test error between neural network architectures and the associated kernels. We construct a simple neural network architecture using only 3x3 convolutions, 2x2 average pooling, ReLU, and optimized with SGD and MSE loss that achieves 96% accuracy on CIFAR10, and whose corresponding compositional kernel achieves 90% accuracy. We also use our constructions to investigate the relative performance of neural networks, NTKs, and compositional kernels in the small dataset regime. In particular, we find that compositional kernels outperform NTKs and neural networks outperform both kernel methods.

Sarah Dean, Sarah Rich, Benjamin Recht

Recommender systems often rely on models which are trained to maximize accuracy in predicting user preferences. When the systems are deployed, these models determine the availability of content and information to different users. The gap between these objectives gives rise to a potential for unintended consequences, contributing to phenomena such as filter bubbles and polarization. In this work, we consider directly the information availability problem through the lens of user recourse. Using ideas of reachability, we propose a computationally efficient audit for top-$N$ linear recommender models. Furthermore, we describe the relationship between model complexity and the effort necessary for users to exert control over their recommendations. We use this insight to provide a novel perspective on the user cold-start problem. Finally, we demonstrate these concepts with an empirical investigation of a state-of-the-art model trained on a widely used movie ratings dataset.

Sarah Dean, Nikolai Matni, Benjamin Recht et al.

Motivated by vision-based control of autonomous vehicles, we consider the problem of controlling a known linear dynamical system for which partial state information, such as vehicle position, is extracted from complex and nonlinear data, such as a camera image. Our approach is to use a learned perception map that predicts some linear function of the state and to design a corresponding safe set and robust controller for the closed loop system with this sensing scheme. We show that under suitable smoothness assumptions on both the perception map and the generative model relating state to complex and nonlinear data, parameters of the safe set can be learned via appropriately dense sampling of the state space. We then prove that the resulting perception-control loop has favorable generalization properties. We illustrate the usefulness of our approach on a synthetic example and on the self-driving car simulation platform CARLA.

Vaishaal Shankar, Achal Dave, Rebecca Roelofs et al.

We study the robustness of image classifiers to temporal perturbations derived from videos. As part of this study, we construct two datasets, ImageNet-Vid-Robust and YTBB-Robust , containing a total 57,897 images grouped into 3,139 sets of perceptually similar images. Our datasets were derived from ImageNet-Vid and Youtube-BB respectively and thoroughly re-annotated by human experts for image similarity. We evaluate a diverse array of classifiers pre-trained on ImageNet and show a median classification accuracy drop of 16 and 10 on our two datasets. Additionally, we evaluate three detection models and show that natural perturbations induce both classification as well as localization errors, leading to a median drop in detection mAP of 14 points. Our analysis demonstrates that perturbations occurring naturally in videos pose a substantial and realistic challenge to deploying convolutional neural networks in environments that require both reliable and low-latency predictions

Karl Krauth, Stephen Tu, Benjamin Recht

We study the sample complexity of approximate policy iteration (PI) for the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR), building on a recent line of work using LQR as a testbed to understand the limits of reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms on continuous control tasks. Our analysis quantifies the tension between policy improvement and policy evaluation, and suggests that policy evaluation is the dominant factor in terms of sample complexity. Specifically, we show that to obtain a controller that is within $\varepsilon$ of the optimal LQR controller, each step of policy evaluation requires at most $(n+d)^3/\varepsilon^2$ samples, where $n$ is the dimension of the state vector and $d$ is the dimension of the input vector. On the other hand, only $\log(1/\varepsilon)$ policy improvement steps suffice, resulting in an overall sample complexity of $(n+d)^3 \varepsilon^{-2} \log(1/\varepsilon)$. We furthermore build on our analysis and construct a simple adaptive procedure based on $\varepsilon$-greedy exploration which relies on approximate PI as a sub-routine and obtains $T^{2/3}$ regret, improving upon a recent result of Abbasi-Yadkori et al.

Horia Mania, John Miller, Ludwig Schmidt et al.

Excessive reuse of test data has become commonplace in today's machine learning workflows. Popular benchmarks, competitions, industrial scale tuning, among other applications, all involve test data reuse beyond guidance by statistical confidence bounds. Nonetheless, recent replication studies give evidence that popular benchmarks continue to support progress despite years of extensive reuse. We proffer a new explanation for the apparent longevity of test data: Many proposed models are similar in their predictions and we prove that this similarity mitigates overfitting. Specifically, we show empirically that models proposed for the ImageNet ILSVRC benchmark agree in their predictions well beyond what we can conclude from their accuracy levels alone. Likewise, models created by large scale hyperparameter search enjoy high levels of similarity. Motivated by these empirical observations, we give a non-asymptotic generalization bound that takes similarity into account, leading to meaningful confidence bounds in practical settings.

Horia Mania, Stephen Tu, Benjamin Recht

We study the performance of the certainty equivalent controller on Linear Quadratic (LQ) control problems with unknown transition dynamics. We show that for both the fully and partially observed settings, the sub-optimality gap between the cost incurred by playing the certainty equivalent controller on the true system and the cost incurred by using the optimal LQ controller enjoys a fast statistical rate, scaling as the square of the parameter error. To the best of our knowledge, our result is the first sub-optimality guarantee in the partially observed Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) setting. Furthermore, in the fully observed Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR), our result improves upon recent work by Dean et al. (2017), who present an algorithm achieving a sub-optimality gap linear in the parameter error. A key part of our analysis relies on perturbation bounds for discrete Riccati equations. We provide two new perturbation bounds, one that expands on an existing result from Konstantinov et al. (1993), and another based on a new elementary proof strategy.

Benjamin Recht, Rebecca Roelofs, Ludwig Schmidt et al.

We build new test sets for the CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets. Both benchmarks have been the focus of intense research for almost a decade, raising the danger of overfitting to excessively re-used test sets. By closely following the original dataset creation processes, we test to what extent current classification models generalize to new data. We evaluate a broad range of models and find accuracy drops of 3% - 15% on CIFAR-10 and 11% - 14% on ImageNet. However, accuracy gains on the original test sets translate to larger gains on the new test sets. Our results suggest that the accuracy drops are not caused by adaptivity, but by the models' inability to generalize to slightly "harder" images than those found in the original test sets.

Max Simchowitz, Ross Boczar, Benjamin Recht

We analyze a simple prefiltered variation of the least squares estimator for the problem of estimation with biased, semi-parametric noise, an error model studied more broadly in causal statistics and active learning. We prove an oracle inequality which demonstrates that this procedure provably mitigates the variance introduced by long-term dependencies. We then demonstrate that prefiltered least squares yields, to our knowledge, the first algorithm that provably estimates the parameters of partially-observed linear systems that attains rates which do not not incur a worst-case dependence on the rate at which these dependencies decay. The algorithm is provably consistent even for systems which satisfy the weaker marginal stability condition obeyed by many classical models based on Newtonian mechanics. In this context, our semi-parametric framework yields guarantees for both stochastic and worst-case noise.

Stephen Tu, Benjamin Recht

The effectiveness of model-based versus model-free methods is a long-standing question in reinforcement learning (RL). Motivated by recent empirical success of RL on continuous control tasks, we study the sample complexity of popular model-based and model-free algorithms on the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR). We show that for policy evaluation, a simple model-based plugin method requires asymptotically less samples than the classical least-squares temporal difference (LSTD) estimator to reach the same quality of solution; the sample complexity gap between the two methods can be at least a factor of state dimension. For policy evaluation, we study a simple family of problem instances and show that nominal (certainty equivalence principle) control also requires several factors of state and input dimension fewer samples than the policy gradient method to reach the same level of control performance on these instances. Furthermore, the gap persists even when employing commonly used baselines. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first theoretical result which demonstrates a separation in the sample complexity between model-based and model-free methods on a continuous control task.

Liam Li, Kevin Jamieson, Afshin Rostamizadeh et al.

Modern learning models are characterized by large hyperparameter spaces and long training times. These properties, coupled with the rise of parallel computing and the growing demand to productionize machine learning workloads, motivate the need to develop mature hyperparameter optimization functionality in distributed computing settings. We address this challenge by first introducing a simple and robust hyperparameter optimization algorithm called ASHA, which exploits parallelism and aggressive early-stopping to tackle large-scale hyperparameter optimization problems. Our extensive empirical results show that ASHA outperforms existing state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization methods; scales linearly with the number of workers in distributed settings; and is suitable for massive parallelism, as demonstrated on a task with 500 workers. We then describe several design decisions we encountered, along with our associated solutions, when integrating ASHA in Determined AI's end-to-end production-quality machine learning system that offers hyperparameter tuning as a service.

Stephen Tu, Ross Boczar, Benjamin Recht

The problem of estimating the $\mathcal{H}_\infty$-norm of an LTI system from noisy input/output measurements has attracted recent attention as an alternative to parameter identification for bounding unmodeled dynamics in robust control. In this paper, we study lower bounds for $\mathcal{H}_\infty$-norm estimation under a query model where at each iteration the algorithm chooses a bounded input signal and receives the response of the chosen signal corrupted by white noise. We prove that when the underlying system is an FIR filter, $\mathcal{H}_\infty$-norm estimation is no more efficient than model identification for passive sampling. For active sampling, we show that norm estimation is at most a factor of $\log{r}$ more sample efficient than model identification, where $r$ is the length of the filter. We complement our theoretical results with experiments which demonstrate that a simple non-adaptive estimator of the norm is competitive with state-of-the-art adaptive norm estimation algorithms.

Esther Rolf, David Fridovich-Keil, Max Simchowitz et al.

We study an adaptive source seeking problem, in which a mobile robot must identify the strongest emitter(s) of a signal in an environment with background emissions. Background signals may be highly heterogeneous and can mislead algorithms that are based on receding horizon control. We propose AdaSearch, a general algorithm for adaptive source seeking in the face of heterogeneous background noise. AdaSearch combines global trajectory planning with principled confidence intervals in order to concentrate measurements in promising regions while guaranteeing sufficient coverage of the entire area. Theoretical analysis shows that AdaSearch confers gains over a uniform sampling strategy when the distribution of background signals is highly variable. Simulation experiments demonstrate that when applied to the problem of radioactive source seeking, AdaSearch outperforms both uniform sampling and a receding time horizon information-maximization approach based on the current literature. We also demonstrate AdaSearch in hardware, providing further evidence of its potential for real-time implementation.

Sarah Dean, Stephen Tu, Nikolai Matni et al.

We study the constrained linear quadratic regulator with unknown dynamics, addressing the tension between safety and exploration in data-driven control techniques. We present a framework which allows for system identification through persistent excitation, while maintaining safety by guaranteeing the satisfaction of state and input constraints. This framework involves a novel method for synthesizing robust constraint-satisfying feedback controllers, leveraging newly developed tools from system level synthesis. We connect statistical results with cost sub-optimality bounds to give non-asymptotic guarantees on both estimation and controller performance.

Benjamin Recht

This manuscript surveys reinforcement learning from the perspective of optimization and control with a focus on continuous control applications. It surveys the general formulation, terminology, and typical experimental implementations of reinforcement learning and reviews competing solution paradigms. In order to compare the relative merits of various techniques, this survey presents a case study of the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) with unknown dynamics, perhaps the simplest and best-studied problem in optimal control. The manuscript describes how merging techniques from learning theory and control can provide non-asymptotic characterizations of LQR performance and shows that these characterizations tend to match experimental behavior. In turn, when revisiting more complex applications, many of the observed phenomena in LQR persist. In particular, theory and experiment demonstrate the role and importance of models and the cost of generality in reinforcement learning algorithms. This survey concludes with a discussion of some of the challenges in designing learning systems that safely and reliably interact with complex and uncertain environments and how tools from reinforcement learning and control might be combined to approach these challenges.

Benjamin Recht, Rebecca Roelofs, Ludwig Schmidt et al.

Machine learning is currently dominated by largely experimental work focused on improvements in a few key tasks. However, the impressive accuracy numbers of the best performing models are questionable because the same test sets have been used to select these models for multiple years now. To understand the danger of overfitting, we measure the accuracy of CIFAR-10 classifiers by creating a new test set of truly unseen images. Although we ensure that the new test set is as close to the original data distribution as possible, we find a large drop in accuracy (4% to 10%) for a broad range of deep learning models. Yet more recent models with higher original accuracy show a smaller drop and better overall performance, indicating that this drop is likely not due to overfitting based on adaptivity. Instead, we view our results as evidence that current accuracy numbers are brittle and susceptible to even minute natural variations in the data distribution.

Sarah Dean, Horia Mania, Nikolai Matni et al.

We consider adaptive control of the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR), where an unknown linear system is controlled subject to quadratic costs. Leveraging recent developments in the estimation of linear systems and in robust controller synthesis, we present the first provably polynomial time algorithm that provides high probability guarantees of sub-linear regret on this problem. We further study the interplay between regret minimization and parameter estimation by proving a lower bound on the expected regret in terms of the exploration schedule used by any algorithm. Finally, we conduct a numerical study comparing our robust adaptive algorithm to other methods from the adaptive LQR literature, and demonstrate the flexibility of our proposed method by extending it to a demand forecasting problem subject to state constraints.

Max Simchowitz, Ahmed El Alaoui, Benjamin Recht

We prove a \emph{query complexity} lower bound for approximating the top $r$ dimensional eigenspace of a matrix. We consider an oracle model where, given a symmetric matrix $\mathbf{M} \in \mathbb{R}^{d \times d}$, an algorithm $\mathsf{Alg}$ is allowed to make $\mathsf{T}$ exact queries of the form $\mathsf{w}^{(i)} = \mathbf{M} \mathsf{v}^{(i)}$ for $i$ in $\{1,...,\mathsf{T}\}$, where $\mathsf{v}^{(i)}$ is drawn from a distribution which depends arbitrarily on the past queries and measurements $\{\mathsf{v}^{(j)},\mathsf{w}^{(i)}\}_{1 \le j \le i-1}$. We show that for every $\mathtt{gap} \in (0,1/2]$, there exists a distribution over matrices $\mathbf{M}$ for which 1) $\mathrm{gap}_r(\mathbf{M}) = Ω(\mathtt{gap})$ (where $\mathrm{gap}_r(\mathbf{M})$ is the normalized gap between the $r$ and $r+1$-st largest-magnitude eigenvector of $\mathbf{M}$), and 2) any algorithm $\mathsf{Alg}$ which takes fewer than $\mathrm{const} \times \frac{r \log d}{\sqrt{\mathtt{gap}}}$ queries fails (with overwhelming probability) to identity a matrix $\widehat{\mathsf{V}} \in \mathbb{R}^{d \times r}$ with orthonormal columns for which $\langle \widehat{\mathsf{V}}, \mathbf{M} \widehat{\mathsf{V}}\rangle \ge (1 - \mathrm{const} \times \mathtt{gap})\sum_{i=1}^r λ_i(\mathbf{M})$. Our bound requires only that $d$ is a small polynomial in $1/\mathtt{gap}$ and $r$, and matches the upper bounds of Musco and Musco '15. Moreover, it establishes a strict separation between convex optimization and \emph{randomized}, "strict-saddle" non-convex optimization of which PCA is a canonical example: in the former, first-order methods can have dimension-free iteration complexity, whereas in PCA, the iteration complexity of gradient-based methods must necessarily grow with the dimension.

Ross Boczar, Nikolai Matni, Benjamin Recht

As the systems we control become more complex, first-principle modeling becomes either impossible or intractable, motivating the use of machine learning techniques for the control of systems with continuous action spaces. As impressive as the empirical success of these methods have been, strong theoretical guarantees of performance, safety, or robustness are few and far between. This paper takes a step towards such providing such guarantees by establishing finite-data performance guarantees for the robust output-feedback control of an unknown FIR SISO system. In particular, we introduce the "Coarse-ID control" pipeline, which is composed of a system identification step followed by a robust controller synthesis procedure, and analyze its end-to-end performance, providing quantitative bounds on the performance degradation suffered due to model uncertainty as a function of the number of experiments run to identify the system. We conclude with numerical examples demonstrating the effectiveness of our method.

Horia Mania, Aurelia Guy, Benjamin Recht

A common belief in model-free reinforcement learning is that methods based on random search in the parameter space of policies exhibit significantly worse sample complexity than those that explore the space of actions. We dispel such beliefs by introducing a random search method for training static, linear policies for continuous control problems, matching state-of-the-art sample efficiency on the benchmark MuJoCo locomotion tasks. Our method also finds a nearly optimal controller for a challenging instance of the Linear Quadratic Regulator, a classical problem in control theory, when the dynamics are not known. Computationally, our random search algorithm is at least 15 times more efficient than the fastest competing model-free methods on these benchmarks. We take advantage of this computational efficiency to evaluate the performance of our method over hundreds of random seeds and many different hyperparameter configurations for each benchmark task. Our simulations highlight a high variability in performance in these benchmark tasks, suggesting that commonly used estimations of sample efficiency do not adequately evaluate the performance of RL algorithms.

Max Simchowitz, Horia Mania, Stephen Tu et al.

We prove that the ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimator attains nearly minimax optimal performance for the identification of linear dynamical systems from a single observed trajectory. Our upper bound relies on a generalization of Mendelson's small-ball method to dependent data, eschewing the use of standard mixing-time arguments. Our lower bounds reveal that these upper bounds match up to logarithmic factors. In particular, we capture the correct signal-to-noise behavior of the problem, showing that more unstable linear systems are easier to estimate. This behavior is qualitatively different from arguments which rely on mixing-time calculations that suggest that unstable systems are more difficult to estimate. We generalize our technique to provide bounds for a more general class of linear response time-series.

Stephen Tu, Benjamin Recht

Reinforcement learning (RL) has been successfully used to solve many continuous control tasks. Despite its impressive results however, fundamental questions regarding the sample complexity of RL on continuous problems remain open. We study the performance of RL in this setting by considering the behavior of the Least-Squares Temporal Difference (LSTD) estimator on the classic Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) problem from optimal control. We give the first finite-time analysis of the number of samples needed to estimate the value function for a fixed static state-feedback policy to within $\varepsilon$-relative error. In the process of deriving our result, we give a general characterization for when the minimum eigenvalue of the empirical covariance matrix formed along the sample path of a fast-mixing stochastic process concentrates above zero, extending a result by Koltchinskii and Mendelson in the independent covariates setting. Finally, we provide experimental evidence indicating that our analysis correctly captures the qualitative behavior of LSTD on several LQR instances.

Jason D. Lee, Ioannis Panageas, Georgios Piliouras et al.

We establish that first-order methods avoid saddle points for almost all initializations. Our results apply to a wide variety of first-order methods, including gradient descent, block coordinate descent, mirror descent and variants thereof. The connecting thread is that such algorithms can be studied from a dynamical systems perspective in which appropriate instantiations of the Stable Manifold Theorem allow for a global stability analysis. Thus, neither access to second-order derivative information nor randomness beyond initialization is necessary to provably avoid saddle points.

Sarah Dean, Horia Mania, Nikolai Matni et al.

This paper addresses the optimal control problem known as the Linear Quadratic Regulator in the case when the dynamics are unknown. We propose a multi-stage procedure, called Coarse-ID control, that estimates a model from a few experimental trials, estimates the error in that model with respect to the truth, and then designs a controller using both the model and uncertainty estimate. Our technique uses contemporary tools from random matrix theory to bound the error in the estimation procedure. We also employ a recently developed approach to control synthesis called System Level Synthesis that enables robust control design by solving a convex optimization problem. We provide end-to-end bounds on the relative error in control cost that are nearly optimal in the number of parameters and that highlight salient properties of the system to be controlled such as closed-loop sensitivity and optimal control magnitude. We show experimentally that the Coarse-ID approach enables efficient computation of a stabilizing controller in regimes where simple control schemes that do not take the model uncertainty into account fail to stabilize the true system.

Eric Jonas, Monica G. Bobra, Vaishaal Shankar et al.

The precise physical process that triggers solar flares is not currently understood. Here we attempt to capture the signature of this mechanism in solar image data of various wavelengths and use these signatures to predict flaring activity. We do this by developing an algorithm that [1] automatically generates features in 5.5 TB of image data taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory of the solar photosphere, chromosphere, transition region, and corona during the time period between May 2010 and May 2014, [2] combines these features with other features based on flaring history and a physical understanding of putative flaring processes, and [3] classifies these features to predict whether a solar active region will flare within a time period of $T$ hours, where $T$ = 2 and 24. We find that when optimizing for the True Skill Score (TSS), photospheric vector magnetic field data combined with flaring history yields the best performance, and when optimizing for the area under the precision-recall curve, all the data are helpful. Our model performance yields a TSS of $0.84 \pm 0.03$ and $0.81 \pm 0.03$ in the $T$ = 2 and 24 hour cases, respectively, and a value of $0.13 \pm 0.07$ and $0.43 \pm 0.08$ for the area under the precision-recall curve in the $T$ = 2 and 24 hour cases, respectively. These relatively high scores are similar to, but not greater than, other attempts to predict solar flares. Given the similar values of algorithm performance across various types of models reported in the literature, we conclude that we can expect a certain baseline predictive capacity using these data. This is the first attempt to predict solar flares using photospheric vector magnetic field data as well as multiple wavelengths of image data from the chromosphere, transition region, and corona.