Thomas Cass

Thomas Cass, Christian Litterer

It was pointed out in Crisan, Ghazali [2] that the error estimate for the cubature on Wiener space algorithm developed in Lyons, Victoir [11] requires an additional assumption on the drift. In this note we demonstrate that it is straightforward to adopt the analysis of Kusuoka [7] to obtain a general estimate without an additional assumptions on the drift. In the process we slightly sharpen the bounds derived in [7].

Andraž Jelinčič, Jiajie Tao, William F. Turner et al.

It is well understood that, when numerically simulating SDEs with general noise, achieving a strong convergence rate better than $O(\sqrt{h})$ (where h is the step size) requires the use of certain iterated integrals of Brownian motion, commonly referred to as its "Lévy areas". However, these stochastic integrals are difficult to simulate due to their non-Gaussian nature and for a $d$-dimensional Brownian motion with $d > 2$, no fast almost-exact sampling algorithm is known. In this paper, we propose LévyGAN, a deep-learning-based model for generating approximate samples of Lévy area conditional on a Brownian increment. Due to our "Bridge-flipping" operation, the output samples match all joint and conditional odd moments exactly. Our generator employs a tailored GNN-inspired architecture, which enforces the correct dependency structure between the output distribution and the conditioning variable. Furthermore, we incorporate a mathematically principled characteristic-function based discriminator. Lastly, we introduce a novel training mechanism termed "Chen-training", which circumvents the need for expensive-to-generate training data-sets. This new training procedure is underpinned by our two main theoretical results. For 4-dimensional Brownian motion, we show that LévyGAN exhibits state-of-the-art performance across several metrics which measure both the joint and marginal distributions. We conclude with a numerical experiment on the log-Heston model, a popular SDE in mathematical finance, demonstrating that high-quality synthetic Lévy area can lead to high order weak convergence and variance reduction when using multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC).

Nikita Zozoulenko, Thomas Cass, Lukas Gonon

The Mahalanobis distance is a classical tool used to measure the covariance-adjusted distance between points in $\bbR^d$. In this work, we extend the concept of Mahalanobis distance to separable Banach spaces by reinterpreting it as a Cameron-Martin norm associated with a probability measure. This approach leads to a basis-free, data-driven notion of anomaly distance through the so-called variance norm, which can naturally be estimated using empirical measures of a sample. Our framework generalizes the classical $\bbR^d$, functional $(L^2[0,1])^d$, and kernelized settings; importantly, it incorporates non-injective covariance operators. We prove that the variance norm is invariant under invertible bounded linear transformations of the data, extending previous results which are limited to unitary operators. In the Hilbert space setting, we connect the variance norm to the RKHS of the covariance operator, and establish consistency and convergence results for estimation using empirical measures with Tikhonov regularization. Using the variance norm, we introduce the notion of a kernelized nearest-neighbour Mahalanobis distance, and study some of its finite-sample concentration properties. In an empirical study on 12 real-world data sets, we demonstrate that the kernelized nearest-neighbour Mahalanobis distance outperforms the traditional kernelized Mahalanobis distance for multivariate time series novelty detection, using state-of-the-art time series kernels such as the signature, global alignment, and Volterra reservoir kernels.

Thomas Cass, Francesco Piatti, Jeffrey Pei

Signature kernels have emerged as a powerful tool within kernel methods for sequential data. In the paper "The Signature Kernel is the solution of a Goursat PDE", the authors identify a kernel trick that demonstrates that, for continuously differentiable paths, the signature kernel satisfies a Goursat problem for a hyperbolic partial differential equation (PDE) in two independent time variables. While finite difference methods have been explored for this PDE, they face limitations in accuracy and stability when handling highly oscillatory inputs. In this work, we introduce two advanced numerical schemes that leverage polynomial representations of boundary conditions through either approximation or interpolation techniques, and rigorously establish the theoretical convergence of the polynomial approximation scheme. Experimental evaluations reveal that our approaches yield improvements of several orders of magnitude in mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) compared to traditional finite difference schemes, without increasing computational complexity. Furthermore, like finite difference methods, our algorithms can be GPU-parallelized to reduce computational complexity from quadratic to linear in the length of the input sequences, thereby improving scalability for high-frequency data. We have implemented these algorithms in a dedicated Python library, which is publicly available at: https://github.com/FrancescoPiatti/polysigkernel.

Francesco Piatti, Thomas Cass, William F. Turner

We introduce a training-efficient framework for time-series learning that combines random features with controlled differential equations (CDEs). In this approach, large randomly parameterized CDEs act as continuous-time reservoirs, mapping input paths to rich representations. Only a linear readout layer is trained, resulting in fast, scalable models with strong inductive bias. Building on this foundation, we propose two variants: (i) Random Fourier CDEs (RF-CDEs): these lift the input signal using random Fourier features prior to the dynamics, providing a kernel-free approximation of RBF-enhanced sequence models; (ii) Random Rough DEs (R-RDEs): these operate directly on rough-path inputs via a log-ODE discretization, using log-signatures to capture higher-order temporal interactions while remaining stable and efficient. We prove that in the infinite-width limit, these model induces the RBF-lifted signature kernel and the rough signature kernel, respectively, offering a unified perspective on random-feature reservoirs, continuous-time deep architectures, and path-signature theory. We evaluate both models across a range of time-series benchmarks, demonstrating competitive or state-of-the-art performance. These methods provide a practical alternative to explicit signature computations, retaining their inductive bias while benefiting from the efficiency of random features.

Thomas Cass, Cristopher Salvi

These notes expound the recent use of the signature transform and rough path theory in data science and machine learning. We develop the core theory of the signature from first principles and then survey some recent popular applications of this approach, including signature-based kernel methods and neural rough differential equations. The notes are based on a course given by the two authors at Imperial College London.

Paola Arrubarrena, Maud Lemercier, Bojan Nikolic et al. · oxford

We introduce SigNova, a new semi-supervised framework for detecting anomalies in streamed data. While our initial examples focus on detecting radio-frequency interference (RFI) in digitized signals within the field of radio astronomy, it is important to note that SigNova's applicability extends to any type of streamed data. The framework comprises three primary components. Firstly, we use the signature transform to extract a canonical collection of summary statistics from observational sequences. This allows us to represent variable-length visibility samples as finite-dimensional feature vectors. Secondly, each feature vector is assigned a novelty score, calculated as the Mahalanobis distance to its nearest neighbor in an RFI-free training set. By thresholding these scores we identify observation ranges that deviate from the expected behavior of RFI-free visibility samples without relying on stringent distributional assumptions. Thirdly, we integrate this anomaly detector with Pysegments, a segmentation algorithm, to localize consecutive observations contaminated with RFI, if any. This approach provides a compelling alternative to classical windowing techniques commonly used for RFI detection. Importantly, the complexity of our algorithm depends on the RFI pattern rather than on the size of the observation window. We demonstrate how SigNova improves the detection of various types of RFI (e.g., broadband and narrowband) in time-frequency visibility data. We validate our framework on the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) telescope and simulated data and the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA).

Nikita Zozoulenko, Thomas Cass, Lukas Gonon

We introduce Random Feature Representation Boosting (RFRBoost), a novel method for constructing deep residual random feature neural networks (RFNNs) using boosting theory. RFRBoost uses random features at each layer to learn the functional gradient of the network representation, enhancing performance while preserving the convex optimization benefits of RFNNs. In the case of MSE loss, we obtain closed-form solutions to greedy layer-wise boosting with random features. For general loss functions, we show that fitting random feature residual blocks reduces to solving a quadratically constrained least squares problem. Through extensive numerical experiments on tabular datasets for both regression and classification, we show that RFRBoost significantly outperforms RFNNs and end-to-end trained MLP ResNets in the small- to medium-scale regime where RFNNs are typically applied. Moreover, RFRBoost offers substantial computational benefits, and theoretical guarantees stemming from boosting theory.

Maud Lemercier, Cristopher Salvi, Thomas Cass et al.

Making predictions and quantifying their uncertainty when the input data is sequential is a fundamental learning challenge, recently attracting increasing attention. We develop SigGPDE, a new scalable sparse variational inference framework for Gaussian Processes (GPs) on sequential data. Our contribution is twofold. First, we construct inducing variables underpinning the sparse approximation so that the resulting evidence lower bound (ELBO) does not require any matrix inversion. Second, we show that the gradients of the GP signature kernel are solutions of a hyperbolic partial differential equation (PDE). This theoretical insight allows us to build an efficient back-propagation algorithm to optimize the ELBO. We showcase the significant computational gains of SigGPDE compared to existing methods, while achieving state-of-the-art performance for classification tasks on large datasets of up to 1 million multivariate time series.