Jason Poulos

Jason Poulos, Shuxi Zeng

This paper proposes a method for estimating the effect of a policy intervention on an outcome over time. We train recurrent neural networks (RNNs) on the history of control unit outcomes to learn a useful representation for predicting future outcomes. The learned representation of control units is then applied to the treated units for predicting counterfactual outcomes. RNNs are specifically structured to exploit temporal dependencies in panel data, and are able to learn negative and nonlinear interactions between control unit outcomes. We apply the method to the problem of estimating the long-run impact of U.S. homestead policy on public school spending.

Jason Poulos, Rafael Valle

Missing data imputation can help improve the performance of prediction models in situations where missing data hide useful information. This paper compares methods for imputing missing categorical data for supervised classification tasks. We experiment on two machine learning benchmark datasets with missing categorical data, comparing classifiers trained on non-imputed (i.e., one-hot encoded) or imputed data with different levels of additional missing-data perturbation. We show imputation methods can increase predictive accuracy in the presence of missing-data perturbation, which can actually improve prediction accuracy by regularizing the classifier. We achieve the state-of-the-art on the Adult dataset with missing-data perturbation and k-nearest-neighbors (k-NN) imputation.