Chen Dan

Anubhav Bhatti, Yuwei Liu, Chen Dan et al.

Sepsis and septic shock are a critical medical condition affecting millions globally, with a substantial mortality rate. This paper uses state-of-the-art deep learning (DL) architectures to introduce a multi-step forecasting system to predict vital signs indicative of septic shock progression in Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Our approach utilizes a short window of historical vital sign data to forecast future physiological conditions. We introduce a DL-based vital sign forecasting system that predicts up to 3 hours of future vital signs from 6 hours of past data. We further adopt the DILATE loss function to capture better the shape and temporal dynamics of vital signs, which are critical for clinical decision-making. We compare three DL models, N-BEATS, N-HiTS, and Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT), using the publicly available eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD), highlighting their forecasting capabilities in a critical care setting. We evaluate the performance of our models using mean squared error (MSE) and dynamic time warping (DTW) metrics. Our findings show that while TFT excels in capturing overall trends, N-HiTS is superior in retaining short-term fluctuations within a predefined range. This paper demonstrates the potential of deep learning in transforming the monitoring systems in ICUs, potentially leading to significant improvements in patient care and outcomes by accurately forecasting vital signs to assist healthcare providers in detecting early signs of physiological instability and anticipating septic shock.

Xun Zheng, Chen Dan, Bryon Aragam et al.

We develop a framework for learning sparse nonparametric directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from data. Our approach is based on a recent algebraic characterization of DAGs that led to a fully continuous program for score-based learning of DAG models parametrized by a linear structural equation model (SEM). We extend this algebraic characterization to nonparametric SEM by leveraging nonparametric sparsity based on partial derivatives, resulting in a continuous optimization problem that can be applied to a variety of nonparametric and semiparametric models including GLMs, additive noise models, and index models as special cases. Unlike existing approaches that require specific modeling choices, loss functions, or algorithms, we present a completely general framework that can be applied to general nonlinear models (e.g. without additive noise), general differentiable loss functions, and generic black-box optimization routines. The code is available at https://github.com/xunzheng/notears.

Divij Gupta, Anubhav Bhatti, Suraj Parmar et al.

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) is a widely used technique for fine-tuning large pre-trained or foundational models across different modalities and tasks. However, its application to time series data, particularly within foundational models, remains underexplored. This paper examines the impact of LoRA on contemporary time series foundational models: Lag-Llama, MOIRAI, and Chronos. We demonstrate LoRA's fine-tuning potential for forecasting the vital signs of sepsis patients in intensive care units (ICUs), emphasizing the models' adaptability to previously unseen, out-of-domain modalities. Integrating LoRA aims to enhance forecasting performance while reducing inefficiencies associated with fine-tuning large models on limited domain-specific data. Our experiments show that LoRA fine-tuning of time series foundational models significantly improves forecasting, achieving results comparable to state-of-the-art models trained from scratch on similar modalities. We conduct comprehensive ablation studies to demonstrate the trade-offs between the number of tunable parameters and forecasting performance and assess the impact of varying LoRA matrix ranks on model performance.

Saba Ahmadi, Siddharth Bhandari, Avrim Blum et al.

We initiate the study of a new notion of adversarial loss which we call distributional adversarial loss. In this notion, we assume for each original example, the allowed adversarial perturbation set is a family of distributions, and the adversarial loss over each example is the maximum loss over all the associated distributions. The goal is to minimize the overall adversarial loss. We show sample complexity bounds in the PAC-learning setting for our notion of adversarial loss. Our notion of adversarial loss contrasts the prior work on robust learning that considers a set of points, not distributions, as the perturbation set of each clean example. As an application of our approach, we show how to unify the two lines of work on randomized smoothing and robust learning in the PAC-learning setting and derive sample complexity bounds for randomized smoothing methods. Furthermore, we investigate the role of randomness in achieving robustness against adversarial attacks. We show a general derandomization technique that preserves the extent of a randomized classifier's robustness against adversarial attacks and show its effectiveness empirically.

Yuwei Liu, Chen Dan, Anubhav Bhatti et al.

Sepsis is a leading cause of mortality in intensive care units (ICUs), representing a substantial medical challenge. The complexity of analyzing diverse vital signs to predict sepsis further aggravates this issue. While deep learning techniques have been advanced for early sepsis prediction, their 'black-box' nature obscures the internal logic, impairing interpretability in critical settings like ICUs. This paper introduces a framework that combines a deep learning model with an attention mechanism that highlights the critical time steps in the forecasting process, thus improving model interpretability and supporting clinical decision-making. We show that the attention mechanism could be adapted to various black box time series forecasting models such as N-HiTS and N-BEATS. Our method preserves the accuracy of conventional deep learning models while enhancing interpretability through attention-weight-generated heatmaps. We evaluated our model on the eICU-CRD dataset, focusing on forecasting vital signs for sepsis patients. We assessed its performance using mean squared error (MSE) and dynamic time warping (DTW) metrics. We explored the attention maps of N-HiTS and N-BEATS, examining the differences in their performance and identifying crucial factors influencing vital sign forecasting.

Runtian Zhai, Chen Dan, Zico Kolter et al.

Empirical risk minimization (ERM) is known in practice to be non-robust to distributional shift where the training and the test distributions are different. A suite of approaches, such as importance weighting, and variants of distributionally robust optimization (DRO), have been proposed to solve this problem. But a line of recent work has empirically shown that these approaches do not significantly improve over ERM in real applications with distribution shift. The goal of this work is to obtain a comprehensive theoretical understanding of this intriguing phenomenon. We first posit the class of Generalized Reweighting (GRW) algorithms, as a broad category of approaches that iteratively update model parameters based on iterative reweighting of the training samples. We show that when overparameterized models are trained under GRW, the resulting models are close to that obtained by ERM. We also show that adding small regularization which does not greatly affect the empirical training accuracy does not help. Together, our results show that a broad category of what we term GRW approaches are not able to achieve distributionally robust generalization. Our work thus has the following sobering takeaway: to make progress towards distributionally robust generalization, we either have to develop non-GRW approaches, or perhaps devise novel classification/regression loss functions that are adapted to the class of GRW approaches.

Runtian Zhai, Chen Dan, Arun Sai Suggala et al.

Many modern machine learning tasks require models with high tail performance, i.e. high performance over the worst-off samples in the dataset. This problem has been widely studied in fields such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and risk-sensitive decision making. A popular approach to maximize the model's tail performance is to minimize the CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) loss, which computes the average risk over the tails of the loss. However, for classification tasks where models are evaluated by the zero-one loss, we show that if the classifiers are deterministic, then the minimizer of the average zero-one loss also minimizes the CVaR zero-one loss, suggesting that CVaR loss minimization is not helpful without additional assumptions. We circumvent this negative result by minimizing the CVaR loss over randomized classifiers, for which the minimizers of the average zero-one loss and the CVaR zero-one loss are no longer the same, so minimizing the latter can lead to better tail performance. To learn such randomized classifiers, we propose the Boosted CVaR Classification framework which is motivated by a direct relationship between CVaR and a classical boosting algorithm called LPBoost. Based on this framework, we design an algorithm called $α$-AdaLPBoost. We empirically evaluate our proposed algorithm on four benchmark datasets and show that it achieves higher tail performance than deterministic model training methods.

Runtian Zhai, Chen Dan, J. Zico Kolter et al.

Many machine learning tasks involve subpopulation shift where the testing data distribution is a subpopulation of the training distribution. For such settings, a line of recent work has proposed the use of a variant of empirical risk minimization(ERM) known as distributionally robust optimization (DRO). In this work, we apply DRO to real, large-scale tasks with subpopulation shift, and observe that DRO performs relatively poorly, and moreover has severe instability. We identify one direct cause of this phenomenon: sensitivity of DRO to outliers in the datasets. To resolve this issue, we propose the framework of DORO, for Distributional and Outlier Robust Optimization. At the core of this approach is a refined risk function which prevents DRO from overfitting to potential outliers. We instantiate DORO for the Cressie-Read family of Rényi divergence, and delve into two specific instances of this family: CVaR and $χ^2$-DRO. We theoretically prove the effectiveness of the proposed method, and empirically show that DORO improves the performance and stability of DRO with experiments on large modern datasets, thereby positively addressing the open question raised by Hashimoto et al., 2018.

Han Zhao, Chen Dan, Bryon Aragam et al.

A wide range of machine learning applications such as privacy-preserving learning, algorithmic fairness, and domain adaptation/generalization among others, involve learning invariant representations of the data that aim to achieve two competing goals: (a) maximize information or accuracy with respect to a target response, and (b) maximize invariance or independence with respect to a set of protected features (e.g., for fairness, privacy, etc). Despite their wide applicability, theoretical understanding of the optimal tradeoffs -- with respect to accuracy, and invariance -- achievable by invariant representations is still severely lacking. In this paper, we provide an information theoretic analysis of such tradeoffs under both classification and regression settings. More precisely, we provide a geometric characterization of the accuracy and invariance achievable by any representation of the data; we term this feasible region the information plane. We provide an inner bound for this feasible region for the classification case, and an exact characterization for the regression case, which allows us to either bound or exactly characterize the Pareto optimal frontier between accuracy and invariance. Although our contributions are mainly theoretical, a key practical application of our results is in certifying the potential sub-optimality of any given representation learning algorithm for either classification or regression tasks. Our results shed new light on the fundamental interplay between accuracy and invariance, and may be useful in guiding the design of future representation learning algorithms.

Chen Dan, Yuting Wei, Pradeep Ravikumar

Adversarial robustness has become a fundamental requirement in modern machine learning applications. Yet, there has been surprisingly little statistical understanding so far. In this paper, we provide the first result of the optimal minimax guarantees for the excess risk for adversarially robust classification, under Gaussian mixture model proposed by \cite{schmidt2018adversarially}. The results are stated in terms of the Adversarial Signal-to-Noise Ratio (AdvSNR), which generalizes a similar notion for standard linear classification to the adversarial setting. For the Gaussian mixtures with AdvSNR value of $r$, we establish an excess risk lower bound of order $Θ(e^{-(\frac{1}{8}+o(1)) r^2} \frac{d}{n})$ and design a computationally efficient estimator that achieves this optimal rate. Our results built upon minimal set of assumptions while cover a wide spectrum of adversarial perturbations including $\ell_p$ balls for any $p \ge 1$.

Ziyu Xu, Chen Dan, Justin Khim et al.

We address imbalanced classification, the problem in which a label may have low marginal probability relative to other labels, by weighting losses according to the correct class. First, we examine the convergence rates of the expected excess weighted risk of plug-in classifiers where the weighting for the plug-in classifier and the risk may be different. This leads to irreducible errors that do not converge to the weighted Bayes risk, which motivates our consideration of robust risks. We define a robust risk that minimizes risk over a set of weightings and show excess risk bounds for this problem. Finally, we show that particular choices of the weighting set leads to a special instance of conditional value at risk (CVaR) from stochastic programming, which we call label conditional value at risk (LCVaR). Additionally, we generalize this weighting to derive a new robust risk problem that we call label heterogeneous conditional value at risk (LHCVaR). Finally, we empirically demonstrate the efficacy of LCVaR and LHCVaR on improving class conditional risks.

Avrim Blum, Chen Dan, Saeed Seddighin

Simulated annealing is an effective and general means of optimization. It is in fact inspired by metallurgy, where the temperature of a material determines its behavior in thermodynamics. Likewise, in simulated annealing, the actions that the algorithm takes depend entirely on the value of a variable which captures the notion of temperature. Typically, simulated annealing starts with a high temperature, which makes the algorithm pretty unpredictable, and gradually cools the temperature down to become more stable. A key component that plays a crucial role in the performance of simulated annealing is the criteria under which the temperature changes namely, the cooling schedule. Motivated by this, we study the following question in this work: "Given enough samples to the instances of a specific class of optimization problems, can we design optimal (or approximately optimal) cooling schedules that minimize the runtime or maximize the success rate of the algorithm on average when the underlying problem is drawn uniformly at random from the same class?" We provide positive results both in terms of sample complexity and simulation complexity. For sample complexity, we show that $\tilde O(\sqrt{m})$ samples suffice to find an approximately optimal cooling schedule of length $m$. We complement this result by giving a lower bound of $\tilde Ω(m^{1/3})$ on the sample complexity of any learning algorithm that provides an almost optimal cooling schedule. These results are general and rely on no assumption. For simulation complexity, however, we make additional assumptions to measure the success rate of an algorithm. To this end, we introduce the monotone stationary graph that models the performance of simulated annealing. Based on this model, we present polynomial time algorithms with provable guarantees for the learning problem.

Runtian Zhai, Chen Dan, Di He et al.

Adversarial training is one of the most popular ways to learn robust models but is usually attack-dependent and time costly. In this paper, we propose the MACER algorithm, which learns robust models without using adversarial training but performs better than all existing provable l2-defenses. Recent work shows that randomized smoothing can be used to provide a certified l2 radius to smoothed classifiers, and our algorithm trains provably robust smoothed classifiers via MAximizing the CErtified Radius (MACER). The attack-free characteristic makes MACER faster to train and easier to optimize. In our experiments, we show that our method can be applied to modern deep neural networks on a wide range of datasets, including Cifar-10, ImageNet, MNIST, and SVHN. For all tasks, MACER spends less training time than state-of-the-art adversarial training algorithms, and the learned models achieve larger average certified radius.

Chen Dan, Hong Wang, Hongyang Zhang et al.

We study the low rank approximation problem of any given matrix $A$ over $\mathbb{R}^{n\times m}$ and $\mathbb{C}^{n\times m}$ in entry-wise $\ell_p$ loss, that is, finding a rank-$k$ matrix $X$ such that $\|A-X\|_p$ is minimized. Unlike the traditional $\ell_2$ setting, this particular variant is NP-Hard. We show that the algorithm of column subset selection, which was an algorithmic foundation of many existing algorithms, enjoys approximation ratio $(k+1)^{1/p}$ for $1\le p\le 2$ and $(k+1)^{1-1/p}$ for $p\ge 2$. This improves upon the previous $O(k+1)$ bound for $p\ge 1$ \cite{chierichetti2017algorithms}. We complement our analysis with lower bounds; these bounds match our upper bounds up to constant $1$ when $p\geq 2$. At the core of our techniques is an application of \emph{Riesz-Thorin interpolation theorem} from harmonic analysis, which might be of independent interest to other algorithmic designs and analysis more broadly. As a consequence of our analysis, we provide better approximation guarantees for several other algorithms with various time complexity. For example, to make the algorithm of column subset selection computationally efficient, we analyze a polynomial time bi-criteria algorithm which selects $O(k\log m)$ columns. We show that this algorithm has an approximation ratio of $O((k+1)^{1/p})$ for $1\le p\le 2$ and $O((k+1)^{1-1/p})$ for $p\ge 2$. This improves over the best-known bound with an $O(k+1)$ approximation ratio. Our bi-criteria algorithm also implies an exact-rank method in polynomial time with a slightly larger approximation ratio.

Runtian Zhai, Tianle Cai, Di He et al.

Neural network robustness has recently been highlighted by the existence of adversarial examples. Many previous works show that the learned networks do not perform well on perturbed test data, and significantly more labeled data is required to achieve adversarially robust generalization. In this paper, we theoretically and empirically show that with just more unlabeled data, we can learn a model with better adversarially robust generalization. The key insight of our results is based on a risk decomposition theorem, in which the expected robust risk is separated into two parts: the stability part which measures the prediction stability in the presence of perturbations, and the accuracy part which evaluates the standard classification accuracy. As the stability part does not depend on any label information, we can optimize this part using unlabeled data. We further prove that for a specific Gaussian mixture problem, adversarially robust generalization can be almost as easy as the standard generalization in supervised learning if a sufficiently large amount of unlabeled data is provided. Inspired by the theoretical findings, we further show that a practical adversarial training algorithm that leverages unlabeled data can improve adversarial robust generalization on MNIST and Cifar-10.

Chen Dan, Liu Leqi, Bryon Aragam et al.

We study the sample complexity of semi-supervised learning (SSL) and introduce new assumptions based on the mismatch between a mixture model learned from unlabeled data and the true mixture model induced by the (unknown) class conditional distributions. Under these assumptions, we establish an $Ω(K\log K)$ labeled sample complexity bound without imposing parametric assumptions, where $K$ is the number of classes. Our results suggest that even in nonparametric settings it is possible to learn a near-optimal classifier using only a few labeled samples. Unlike previous theoretical work which focuses on binary classification, we consider general multiclass classification ($K>2$), which requires solving a difficult permutation learning problem. This permutation defines a classifier whose classification error is controlled by the Wasserstein distance between mixing measures, and we provide finite-sample results characterizing the behaviour of the excess risk of this classifier. Finally, we describe three algorithms for computing these estimators based on a connection to bipartite graph matching, and perform experiments to illustrate the superiority of the MLE over the majority vote estimator.

Bryon Aragam, Chen Dan, Eric P. Xing et al.

Motivated by problems in data clustering, we establish general conditions under which families of nonparametric mixture models are identifiable, by introducing a novel framework involving clustering overfitted \emph{parametric} (i.e. misspecified) mixture models. These identifiability conditions generalize existing conditions in the literature, and are flexible enough to include for example mixtures of Gaussian mixtures. In contrast to the recent literature on estimating nonparametric mixtures, we allow for general nonparametric mixture components, and instead impose regularity assumptions on the underlying mixing measure. As our primary application, we apply these results to partition-based clustering, generalizing the notion of a Bayes optimal partition from classical parametric model-based clustering to nonparametric settings. Furthermore, this framework is constructive so that it yields a practical algorithm for learning identified mixtures, which is illustrated through several examples on real data. The key conceptual device in the analysis is the convex, metric geometry of probability measures on metric spaces and its connection to the Wasserstein convergence of mixing measures. The result is a flexible framework for nonparametric clustering with formal consistency guarantees.