Cyrille Jégourel

Cyrille Jégourel, Axel Legay, Sean Sedwards

Statistical model checking avoids the exponential growth of states associated with probabilistic model checking by estimating properties from multiple executions of a system and by giving results within confidence bounds. Rare properties are often very important but pose a particular challenge for simulation-based approaches, hence a key objective under these circumstances is to reduce the number and length of simulations necessary to produce a given level of confidence. Importance sampling is a well-established technique that achieves this, however to maintain the advantages of statistical model checking it is necessary to find good importance sampling distributions without considering the entire state space. Motivated by the above, we present a simple algorithm that uses the notion of cross-entropy to find the optimal parameters for an importance sampling distribution. In contrast to previous work, our algorithm uses a low dimensional vector of parameters to define this distribution and thus avoids the often intractable explicit representation of a transition matrix. We show that our parametrisation leads to a unique optimum and can produce many orders of magnitude improvement in simulation efficiency. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methodology by applying it to models from reliability engineering and biochemistry.

Oka Kurniawan, Cyrille Jégourel, Norman Tiong Seng Lee et al.

Novice programmers often struggle with problem solving due to the high cognitive loads they face. Furthermore, many introductory programming courses do not explicitly teach it, assuming that problem solving skills are acquired along the way. In this paper, we present 'PCDIT', a non-linear problem solving framework that provides scaffolding to guide novice programmers through the process of transforming a problem specification into an implemented and tested solution for an imperative programming language. A key distinction of PCDIT is its focus on developing concrete cases for the problem early without actually writing test code: students are instead encouraged to think about the abstract steps from inputs to outputs before mapping anything down to syntax. We reflect on our experience of teaching an introductory programming course using PCDIT, and report the results of a survey that suggests it helped students to break down challenging problems, organise their thoughts, and reach working solutions.

Kenan Kalajdzic, Cyrille Jegourel, Ezio Bartocci et al.

We introduce feedback-control statistical system checking (FC-SSC), a new approach to statistical model checking that exploits principles of feedback-control for the analysis of cyber-physical systems (CPS). FC-SSC uses stochastic system identification to learn a CPS model, importance sampling to estimate the CPS state, and importance splitting to control the CPS so that the probability that the CPS satisfies a given property can be efficiently inferred. We illustrate the utility of FC-SSC on two example applications, each of which is simple enough to be easily understood, yet complex enough to exhibit all of FC-SCC's features. To the best of our knowledge, FC-SSC is the first statistical system checker to efficiently estimate the probability of rare events in realistic CPS applications or in any complex probabilistic program whose model is either not available, or is infeasible to derive through static-analysis techniques.

Uli Fahrenberg, Fabrizio Biondi, Kevin Corre et al.

We propose a new similarity measure between texts which, contrary to the current state-of-the-art approaches, takes a global view of the texts to be compared. We have implemented a tool to compute our textual distance and conducted experiments on several corpuses of texts. The experiments show that our methods can reliably identify different global types of texts.