Maximilian Kaiser

Fynn Oldenburg, Qiwei Han, Maximilian Kaiser

As advertisers increasingly shift their budgets toward digital advertising, accurately forecasting advertising costs becomes essential for optimizing marketing campaign returns. This paper presents a comprehensive study that employs various time-series forecasting methods to predict daily average CPC in the online advertising market. We evaluate the performance of statistical models, machine learning techniques, and deep learning approaches, including the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT). Our findings reveal that incorporating multivariate models, enriched with covariates derived from competitors' CPC patterns through time-series clustering, significantly improves forecasting accuracy. We interpret the results by analyzing feature importance and temporal attention, demonstrating how the models leverage both the advertiser's data and insights from the competitive landscape. Additionally, our method proves robust during major market shifts, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, consistently outperforming models that rely solely on individual advertisers' data. This study introduces a scalable technique for selecting relevant covariates from a broad pool of advertisers, offering more accurate long-term forecasts and strategic insights into budget allocation and competitive dynamics in digital advertising.

Erik Fubel, Niclas Michael Groll, Patrick Gundlach et al.

Search Engine Result Pages (SERPs) serve as the digital gateways to the vast expanse of the internet. Past decades have witnessed a surge in research primarily centered on the influence of website ranking on these pages, to determine the click-through rate (CTR). However, during this period, the landscape of SERPs has undergone a dramatic evolution: SERP features, encompassing elements such as knowledge panels, media galleries, FAQs, and more, have emerged as an increasingly prominent facet of these result pages. Our study examines the crucial role of these features, revealing them to be not merely aesthetic components, but strongly influence CTR and the associated behavior of internet users. We demonstrate how these features can significantly modulate web traffic, either amplifying or attenuating it. We dissect these intricate interaction effects leveraging a unique dataset of 67,000 keywords and their respective Google SERPs, spanning over 40 distinct US-based e-commerce domains, generating over 6 million clicks from 24 million views. This cross-website dataset, unprecedented in its scope, enables us to assess the impact of 24 different SERP features on organic CTR. Through an ablation study modeling CTR, we illustrate the incremental predictive power these features hold.

Max Würfel, Qiwei Han, Maximilian Kaiser

Online advertising revenues account for an increasing share of publishers' revenue streams, especially for small and medium-sized publishers who depend on the advertisement networks of tech companies such as Google and Facebook. Thus publishers may benefit significantly from accurate online advertising revenue forecasts to better manage their website monetization strategies. However, publishers who only have access to their own revenue data lack a holistic view of the total ad market of publishers, which in turn limits their ability to generate insights into their own future online advertising revenues. To address this business issue, we leverage a proprietary database encompassing Google Adsense revenues from a large collection of publishers in diverse areas. We adopt the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) model, a novel attention-based architecture to predict publishers' advertising revenues. We leverage multiple covariates, including not only the publisher's own characteristics but also other publishers' advertising revenues. Our prediction results outperform several benchmark deep-learning time-series forecast models over multiple time horizons. Moreover, we interpret the results by analyzing variable importance weights to identify significant features and self-attention weights to reveal persistent temporal patterns.