Naman Awasthi

Saad Mohammad Abrar, Naman Awasthi, Daniel Smolyak et al.

The US COVID-19 Forecast Hub, a repository of COVID-19 forecasts from over 50 independent research groups, is used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for their official COVID-19 communications. As such, the Forecast Hub is a critical centralized resource to promote transparent decision making. While the Forecast Hub has provided valuable predictions focused on accuracy, there is an opportunity to evaluate model performance across social determinants such as race and urbanization level that have been known to play a role in the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we carry out a comprehensive fairness analysis of the Forecast Hub model predictions and we show statistically significant diverse predictive performance across social determinants, with minority racial and ethnic groups as well as less urbanized areas often associated with higher prediction errors. We hope this work will encourage COVID-19 modelers and the CDC to report fairness metrics together with accuracy, and to reflect on the potential harms of the models on specific social groups and contexts.

Naman Awasthi, Saad Abrar, Daniel Smolyak et al.

COVID-19 forecasting models have been used to inform decision making around resource allocation and intervention decisions e.g., hospital beds or stay-at-home orders. State of the art deep learning models often use multimodal data such as mobility or socio-demographic data to enhance COVID-19 case prediction models. Nevertheless, related work has revealed under-reporting bias in COVID-19 cases as well as sampling bias in mobility data for certain minority racial and ethnic groups, which could in turn affect the fairness of the COVID-19 predictions along race labels. In this paper, we show that state of the art deep learning models output mean prediction errors that are significantly different across racial and ethnic groups; and which could, in turn, support unfair policy decisions. We also propose a novel de-biasing method, DemOpts, to increase the fairness of deep learning based forecasting models trained on potentially biased datasets. Our results show that DemOpts can achieve better error parity that other state of the art de-biasing approaches, thus effectively reducing the differences in the mean error distributions across more racial and ethnic groups.

Pooja Guhan, Naman Awasthi, and Kathryn McDonald et al.

We discuss MET, a learning-based algorithm proposed for perceiving a patient's level of engagement during telehealth sessions. We leverage latent vectors corresponding to Affective and Cognitive features frequently used in psychology literature to understand a person's level of engagement in a semi-supervised GAN-based framework. We showcase the efficacy of this method from the perspective of mental health and more specifically how this can be leveraged for a better understanding of patient engagement during telemental health sessions. To further the development of similar technologies that can be useful for telehealth, we also plan to release a dataset MEDICA containing 1299 video clips, each 3 seconds long and show experiments on the same. Our framework reports a 40% improvement in RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) over state-of-the-art methods for engagement estimation. In our real-world tests, we also observed positive correlations between the working alliance inventory scores reported by psychotherapists. This indicates the potential of the proposed model to present patient engagement estimations that aligns well with the engagement measures used by psychotherapists.