Yuri Fonseca

Yuri Fonseca, Caio Peixoto, Yuri Saporito

Instrumental variables (IVs) provide a powerful strategy for identifying causal effects in the presence of unobservable confounders. Within the nonparametric setting (NPIV), recent methods have been based on nonlinear generalizations of Two-Stage Least Squares and on minimax formulations derived from moment conditions or duality. In a novel direction, we show how to formulate a functional stochastic gradient descent algorithm to tackle NPIV regression by directly minimizing the populational risk. We provide theoretical support in the form of bounds on the excess risk, and conduct numerical experiments showcasing our method's superior stability and competitive performance relative to current state-of-the-art alternatives. This algorithm enables flexible estimator choices, such as neural networks or kernel based methods, as well as non-quadratic loss functions, which may be suitable for structural equations beyond the setting of continuous outcomes and additive noise. Finally, we demonstrate this flexibility of our framework by presenting how it naturally addresses the important case of binary outcomes, which has received far less attention by recent developments in the NPIV literature.

Tiffany Tianhui Cai, Yuri Fonseca, Kaiwen Hou et al.

Popular debiased estimation methods for causal inference -- such as augmented inverse propensity weighting and targeted maximum likelihood estimation -- enjoy desirable asymptotic properties like statistical efficiency and double robustness but they can produce unstable estimates when there is limited overlap between treatment and control, requiring additional assumptions or ad hoc adjustments in practice (e.g., truncating propensity scores). In contrast, simple plug-in estimators are stable but lack desirable asymptotic properties. We propose a novel debiasing approach that achieves the best of both worlds, producing stable plug-in estimates with desirable asymptotic properties. Our constrained learning framework solves for the best plug-in estimator under the constraint that the first-order error with respect to the plugged-in quantity is zero, and can leverage flexible model classes including neural networks and tree ensembles. In several experimental settings, including ones in which we handle text-based covariates by fine-tuning language models, our constrained learning-based estimator outperforms basic versions of one-step estimation and targeting in challenging settings with limited overlap between treatment and control, and performs similarly otherwise.

Omar Besbes, Yuri Fonseca, Ilan Lobel

We study the problems of offline and online contextual optimization with feedback information, where instead of observing the loss, we observe, after-the-fact, the optimal action an oracle with full knowledge of the objective function would have taken. We aim to minimize regret, which is defined as the difference between our losses and the ones incurred by an all-knowing oracle. In the offline setting, the decision-maker has information available from past periods and needs to make one decision, while in the online setting, the decision-maker optimizes decisions dynamically over time based a new set of feasible actions and contextual functions in each period. For the offline setting, we characterize the optimal minimax policy, establishing the performance that can be achieved as a function of the underlying geometry of the information induced by the data. In the online setting, we leverage this geometric characterization to optimize the cumulative regret. We develop an algorithm that yields the first regret bound for this problem that is logarithmic in the time horizon. Finally, we show via simulation that our proposed algorithms outperform previous methods from the literature.

Yuri Fonseca, Marcelo Medeiros, Gabriel Vasconcelos et al.

In this paper, we introduce a new machine learning (ML) model for nonlinear regression called the Boosted Smooth Transition Regression Trees (BooST), which is a combination of boosting algorithms with smooth transition regression trees. The main advantage of the BooST model is the estimation of the derivatives (partial effects) of very general nonlinear models. Therefore, the model can provide more interpretation about the mapping between the covariates and the dependent variable than other tree-based models, such as Random Forests. We present several examples with both simulated and real data.