Torsten Hoefler

Maciej Besta, Nils Blach, Ales Kubicek et al.

We introduce Graph of Thoughts (GoT): a framework that advances prompting capabilities in large language models (LLMs) beyond those offered by paradigms such as Chain-of-Thought or Tree of Thoughts (ToT). The key idea and primary advantage of GoT is the ability to model the information generated by an LLM as an arbitrary graph, where units of information ("LLM thoughts") are vertices, and edges correspond to dependencies between these vertices. This approach enables combining arbitrary LLM thoughts into synergistic outcomes, distilling the essence of whole networks of thoughts, or enhancing thoughts using feedback loops. We illustrate that GoT offers advantages over state of the art on different tasks, for example increasing the quality of sorting by 62% over ToT, while simultaneously reducing costs by >31%. We ensure that GoT is extensible with new thought transformations and thus can be used to spearhead new prompting schemes. This work brings the LLM reasoning closer to human thinking or brain mechanisms such as recurrence, both of which form complex networks.

Nikoli Dryden, Torsten Hoefler

Many data have an underlying dependence on spatial location; it may be weather on the Earth, a simulation on a mesh, or a registered image. Yet this feature is rarely taken advantage of, and violates common assumptions made by many neural network layers, such as translation equivariance. Further, many works that do incorporate locality fail to capture fine-grained structure. To address this, we introduce the Spatial Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) layer, a sparsely-gated layer that learns spatial structure in the input domain and routes experts at a fine-grained level to utilize it. We also develop new techniques to train SMoEs, including a self-supervised routing loss and damping expert errors. Finally, we show strong results for SMoEs on numerous tasks, and set new state-of-the-art results for medium-range weather prediction and post-processing ensemble weather forecasts.

Saleh Ashkboos, Langwen Huang, Nikoli Dryden et al.

Post-processing ensemble prediction systems can improve the reliability of weather forecasting, especially for extreme event prediction. In recent years, different machine learning models have been developed to improve the quality of weather post-processing. However, these models require a comprehensive dataset of weather simulations to produce high-accuracy results, which comes at a high computational cost to generate. This paper introduces the ENS-10 dataset, consisting of ten ensemble members spanning 20 years (1998-2017). The ensemble members are generated by perturbing numerical weather simulations to capture the chaotic behavior of the Earth. To represent the three-dimensional state of the atmosphere, ENS-10 provides the most relevant atmospheric variables at 11 distinct pressure levels and the surface at 0.5-degree resolution for forecast lead times T=0, 24, and 48 hours (two data points per week). We propose the ENS-10 prediction correction task for improving the forecast quality at a 48-hour lead time through ensemble post-processing. We provide a set of baselines and compare their skill at correcting the predictions of three important atmospheric variables. Moreover, we measure the baselines' skill at improving predictions of extreme weather events using our dataset. The ENS-10 dataset is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license.

Drago Plecko, Patrik Okanovic, Torsten Hoefler et al.

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems hold great promise for advancing various scientific disciplines, and are increasingly used in real-world applications. Despite their remarkable progress, further capabilities are expected in order to achieve more general types of intelligence. A critical distinction in this context is between factual knowledge, which can be evaluated against true or false answers (e.g., "what is the capital of England?"), and probabilistic knowledge, reflecting probabilistic properties of the real world (e.g., "what is the sex of a computer science graduate in the US?"). In this paper, our goal is to build a benchmark for understanding the capabilities of LLMs in terms of knowledge of probability distributions describing the real world. Given that LLMs are trained on vast amounts of text, it may be plausible that they internalize aspects of these distributions. Indeed, LLMs are touted as powerful universal approximators of real-world distributions. At the same time, classical results in statistics, known as curse of dimensionality, highlight fundamental challenges in learning distributions in high dimensions, challenging the notion of universal distributional learning. In this work, we develop the first benchmark to directly test this hypothesis, evaluating whether LLMs have access to empirical distributions describing real-world populations across domains such as economics, health, education, and social behavior. Our results demonstrate that LLMs perform poorly overall, and do not seem to internalize real-world statistics naturally. When interpreted in the context of Pearl's Causal Hierarchy (PCH), our benchmark demonstrates that language models do not contain knowledge on observational distributions (Layer 1 of PCH), and thus the Causal Hierarchy Theorem implies that interventional (Layer 2) and counterfactual (Layer 3) knowledge of these models is also limited.

Johannes de Fine Licht, Torsten Hoefler

High-level synthesis (HLS) tools have brought FPGA development into the mainstream, by allowing programmers to design architectures using familiar languages such as C, C++, and OpenCL. While the move to these languages has brought significant benefits, many aspects of traditional software engineering are still unsupported, or not exploited by developers in practice. Furthermore, designing reconfigurable architectures requires support for hardware constructs, such as FIFOs and shift registers, that are not native to CPU-oriented languages. To address this gap, we have developed hlslib, a collection of software tools, plug-in hardware modules, and code samples, designed to enhance the productivity of HLS developers. The goal of hlslib is two-fold: first, create a community-driven arena of bleeding edge development, which can move quicker, and provides more powerful abstractions than what is provided by vendors; and second, collect a wide range of example codes, both minimal proofs of concept, and larger, real-world applications, that can be reused directly or inspire other work. hlslib is offered as an open source library, containing CMake files, C++ headers, convenience scripts, and examples codes, and is receptive to any contribution that can benefit HLS developers, through general functionality or examples.

Patrik Okanovic, Andreas Kirsch, Jannes Kasper et al.

We introduce MODEL SELECTOR, a framework for label-efficient selection of pretrained classifiers. Given a pool of unlabeled target data, MODEL SELECTOR samples a small subset of highly informative examples for labeling, in order to efficiently identify the best pretrained model for deployment on this target dataset. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that MODEL SELECTOR drastically reduces the need for labeled data while consistently picking the best or near-best performing model. Across 18 model collections on 16 different datasets, comprising over 1,500 pretrained models, MODEL SELECTOR reduces the labeling cost by up to 94.15% to identify the best model compared to the cost of the strongest baseline. Our results further highlight the robustness of MODEL SELECTOR in model selection, as it reduces the labeling cost by up to 72.41% when selecting a near-best model, whose accuracy is only within 1% of the best model.

Yavuz Durmazkeser, Patrik Okanovic, Andreas Kirsch et al.

We introduce LLM SELECTOR, the first framework for active model selection of Large Language Models (LLMs). Unlike prior evaluation and benchmarking approaches that rely on fully annotated datasets, LLM SELECTOR efficiently identifies the best LLM with limited annotations. In particular, for any given task, LLM SELECTOR adaptively selects a small set of queries to annotate that are most informative about the best model for the task. To further reduce annotation cost, we leverage a judge-based oracle annotation model. Through extensive experiments on 6 benchmarks with 151 LLMs, we show that LLM SELECTOR reduces annotation costs by up to 59.62% when selecting the best and near-best LLM for the task.

Patrik Okanovic, Sameer Deshmukh, Grzegorz Kwasniewski et al.

The energy consumption of large-scale ML models is dominated by data movement, shuffling billions of parameters across memory hierarchies and data centers. Sparsification offers a principled way to mitigate these costs by pruning redundant weights and activations, thereby reducing data movement. Effective sparsification to prune redundant parameters is still challenging: existing methods incur significant accuracy degradation, performance overhead, or both. We introduce (Bl)ock (a)nd (S)parse (T)ransformers (BLaST), a general, robust, and reliable method for sparsification, applicable to linear layers in all settings. Our method iteratively sparsifies weight matrices into a block sparsity pattern suitable for efficient sparse matrix-matrix (SpMM) multiplication. BLaST achieves up to 95% sparsity in MLP weights with negligible accuracy loss (majority <2.25%). We show a 2.2x inference speedup for Llama 3.2 with 16 GPUs, and up to 4.45x reduction in inference memory footprint resulting in a 2.9x reduction in GPU setup and operating costs.

Peter Grönquist, Chengyuan Yao, Tal Ben-Nun et al.

Quantifying uncertainty in weather forecasts is critical, especially for predicting extreme weather events. This is typically accomplished with ensemble prediction systems, which consist of many perturbed numerical weather simulations, or trajectories, run in parallel. These systems are associated with a high computational cost and often involve statistical post-processing steps to inexpensively improve their raw prediction qualities. We propose a mixed model that uses only a subset of the original weather trajectories combined with a post-processing step using deep neural networks. These enable the model to account for non-linear relationships that are not captured by current numerical models or post-processing methods. Applied to global data, our mixed models achieve a relative improvement in ensemble forecast skill (CRPS) of over 14%. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the improvement is larger for extreme weather events on select case studies. We also show that our post-processing can use fewer trajectories to achieve comparable results to the full ensemble. By using fewer trajectories, the computational costs of an ensemble prediction system can be reduced, allowing it to run at higher resolution and produce more accurate forecasts.

Peter Grönquist, Tal Ben-Nun, Nikoli Dryden et al.

Modern weather forecast models perform uncertainty quantification using ensemble prediction systems, which collect nonparametric statistics based on multiple perturbed simulations. To provide accurate estimation, dozens of such computationally intensive simulations must be run. We show that deep neural networks can be used on a small set of numerical weather simulations to estimate the spread of a weather forecast, significantly reducing computational cost. To train the system, we both modify the 3D U-Net architecture and explore models that incorporate temporal data. Our models serve as a starting point to improve uncertainty quantification in current real-time weather forecasting systems, which is vital for predicting extreme events.

Elad Hoffer, Tal Ben-Nun, Itay Hubara et al.

Large-batch SGD is important for scaling training of deep neural networks. However, without fine-tuning hyperparameter schedules, the generalization of the model may be hampered. We propose to use batch augmentation: replicating instances of samples within the same batch with different data augmentations. Batch augmentation acts as a regularizer and an accelerator, increasing both generalization and performance scaling. We analyze the effect of batch augmentation on gradient variance and show that it empirically improves convergence for a wide variety of deep neural networks and datasets. Our results show that batch augmentation reduces the number of necessary SGD updates to achieve the same accuracy as the state-of-the-art. Overall, this simple yet effective method enables faster training and better generalization by allowing more computational resources to be used concurrently.