Trevor Hastie

Tetiana Parshakova, Trevor Hastie, Eric Darve et al. · stanford

We consider multilevel low rank (MLR) matrices, defined as a row and column permutation of a sum of matrices, each one a block diagonal refinement of the previous one, with all blocks low rank given in factored form. MLR matrices extend low rank matrices but share many of their properties, such as the total storage required and complexity of matrix-vector multiplication. We address three problems that arise in fitting a given matrix by an MLR matrix in the Frobenius norm. The first problem is factor fitting, where we adjust the factors of the MLR matrix. The second is rank allocation, where we choose the ranks of the blocks in each level, subject to the total rank having a given value, which preserves the total storage needed for the MLR matrix. The final problem is to choose the hierarchical partition of rows and columns, along with the ranks and factors. This paper is accompanied by an open source package that implements the proposed methods.

Anav Sood, Trevor Hastie

We consider the problem of selecting a small subset of representative variables from a large dataset. In the computer science literature, this dimensionality reduction problem is typically formalized as Column Subset Selection (CSS). Meanwhile, the typical statistical formalization is to find an information-maximizing set of Principal Variables. This paper shows that these two approaches are equivalent, and moreover, both can be viewed as maximum likelihood estimation within a certain semi-parametric model. Within this model, we establish suitable conditions under which the CSS estimate is consistent in high dimensions, specifically in the proportional asymptotic regime where the number of variables over the sample size converges to a constant. Using these connections, we show how to efficiently (1) perform CSS using only summary statistics from the original dataset; (2) perform CSS in the presence of missing and/or censored data; and (3) select the subset size for CSS in a hypothesis testing framework.

Ismael Lemhadri, Harrison H. Li, Trevor Hastie

We introduce region-based explanations (RbX), a novel, model-agnostic method to generate local explanations of scalar outputs from a black-box prediction model using only query access. RbX is based on a greedy algorithm for building a convex polytope that approximates a region of feature space where model predictions are close to the prediction at some target point. This region is fully specified by the user on the scale of the predictions, rather than on the scale of the features. The geometry of this polytope - specifically the change in each coordinate necessary to escape the polytope - quantifies the local sensitivity of the predictions to each of the features. These "escape distances" can then be standardized to rank the features by local importance. RbX is guaranteed to satisfy a "sparsity axiom," which requires that features which do not enter into the prediction model are assigned zero importance. At the same time, real data examples and synthetic experiments show how RbX can more readily detect all locally relevant features than existing methods.

Tetiana Parshakova, Trevor Hastie, Stephen Boyd

We examine a special case of the multilevel factor model, with covariance given by multilevel low rank (MLR) matrix~\cite{parshakova2023factor}. We develop a novel, fast implementation of the expectation-maximization algorithm, tailored for multilevel factor models, to maximize the likelihood of the observed data. This method accommodates any hierarchical structure and maintains linear time and storage complexities per iteration. This is achieved through a new efficient technique for computing the inverse of the positive definite MLR matrix. We show that the inverse of positive definite MLR matrix is also an MLR matrix with the same sparsity in factors, and we use the recursive Sherman-Morrison-Woodbury matrix identity to obtain the factors of the inverse. Additionally, we present an algorithm that computes the Cholesky factorization of an expanded matrix with linear time and space complexities, yielding the covariance matrix as its Schur complement. This paper is accompanied by an open-source package that implements the proposed methods.

James Yang, Trevor Hastie

We develop fast and scalable algorithms based on block-coordinate descent to solve the group lasso and the group elastic net for generalized linear models along a regularization path. Special attention is given when the loss is the usual least squares loss (Gaussian loss). We show that each block-coordinate update can be solved efficiently using Newton's method and further improved using an adaptive bisection method, solving these updates with a quadratic convergence rate. Our benchmarks show that our package adelie performs 3 to 10 times faster than the next fastest package on a wide array of both simulated and real datasets. Moreover, we demonstrate that our package is a competitive lasso solver as well, matching the performance of the popular lasso package glmnet.

Thomas Le Menestrel, Erin Craig, Robert Tibshirani et al.

Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have uncovered the genetic basis of complex traits, but show an under-representation of non-European descent individuals, underscoring a critical gap in genetic research. Here, we assess whether we can improve disease prediction across diverse ancestries using multiomic data. We evaluate the performance of Group-LASSO INTERaction-NET (glinternet) and pretrained lasso in disease prediction focusing on diverse ancestries in the UK Biobank. Models were trained on data from White British and other ancestries and validated across a cohort of over 96,000 individuals for 8 diseases. Out of 96 models trained, we report 16 with statistically significant incremental predictive performance in terms of ROC-AUC scores (p-value < 0.05), found for diabetes, arthritis, gall stones, cystitis, asthma and osteoarthritis. For the interaction and pretrained models that outperformed the baseline, the PRS score was the primary driver behind prediction. Our findings indicate that both interaction terms and pre-training can enhance prediction accuracy but for a limited set of diseases and moderate improvements in accuracy

Erin Craig, Timothy Keyes, Jolanda Sarno et al.

Single-cell datasets often lack individual cell labels, making it challenging to identify cells associated with disease. To address this, we introduce Mixture Modeling for Multiple Instance Learning (MMIL), an expectation maximization method that enables the training and calibration of cell-level classifiers using patient-level labels. Our approach can be used to train e.g. lasso logistic regression models, gradient boosted trees, and neural networks. When applied to clinically-annotated, primary patient samples in Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) and Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL), our method accurately identifies cancer cells, generalizes across tissues and treatment timepoints, and selects biologically relevant features. In addition, MMIL is capable of incorporating cell labels into model training when they are known, providing a powerful framework for leveraging both labeled and unlabeled data simultaneously. Mixture Modeling for MIL offers a novel approach for cell classification, with significant potential to advance disease understanding and management, especially in scenarios with unknown gold-standard labels and high dimensionality.

Elena Tuzhilina, Trevor Hastie

Low-rank matrix approximation is one of the central concepts in machine learning, with applications in dimension reduction, de-noising, multivariate statistical methodology, and many more. A recent extension to LRMA is called low-rank matrix completion (LRMC). It solves the LRMA problem when some observations are missing and is especially useful for recommender systems. In this paper, we consider an element-wise weighted generalization of LRMA. The resulting weighted low-rank matrix approximation technique therefore covers LRMC as a special case with binary weights. WLRMA has many applications. For example, it is an essential component of GLM optimization algorithms, where an exponential family is used to model the entries of a matrix, and the matrix of natural parameters admits a low-rank structure. We propose an algorithm for solving the weighted problem, as well as two acceleration techniques. Further, we develop a non-SVD modification of the proposed algorithm that is able to handle extremely high-dimensional data. We compare the performance of all the methods on a small simulation example as well as a real-data application.

Stephen Bates, Trevor Hastie, Robert Tibshirani

Cross-validation is a widely-used technique to estimate prediction error, but its behavior is complex and not fully understood. Ideally, one would like to think that cross-validation estimates the prediction error for the model at hand, fit to the training data. We prove that this is not the case for the linear model fit by ordinary least squares; rather it estimates the average prediction error of models fit on other unseen training sets drawn from the same population. We further show that this phenomenon occurs for most popular estimates of prediction error, including data splitting, bootstrapping, and Mallow's Cp. Next, the standard confidence intervals for prediction error derived from cross-validation may have coverage far below the desired level. Because each data point is used for both training and testing, there are correlations among the measured accuracies for each fold, and so the usual estimate of variance is too small. We introduce a nested cross-validation scheme to estimate this variance more accurately, and we show empirically that this modification leads to intervals with approximately correct coverage in many examples where traditional cross-validation intervals fail.

Łukasz Kidziński, Francis K. C. Hui, David I. Warton et al.

Unmeasured or latent variables are often the cause of correlations between multivariate measurements, which are studied in a variety of fields such as psychology, ecology, and medicine. For Gaussian measurements, there are classical tools such as factor analysis or principal component analysis with a well-established theory and fast algorithms. Generalized Linear Latent Variable models (GLLVMs) generalize such factor models to non-Gaussian responses. However, current algorithms for estimating model parameters in GLLVMs require intensive computation and do not scale to large datasets with thousands of observational units or responses. In this article, we propose a new approach for fitting GLLVMs to high-dimensional datasets, based on approximating the model using penalized quasi-likelihood and then using a Newton method and Fisher scoring to learn the model parameters. Computationally, our method is noticeably faster and more stable, enabling GLLVM fits to much larger matrices than previously possible. We apply our method on a dataset of 48,000 observational units with over 2,000 observed species in each unit and find that most of the variability can be explained with a handful of factors. We publish an easy-to-use implementation of our proposed fitting algorithm.

Yifang Liu, Zhentao Xu, Qiyuan An et al.

Relevance and diversity are both important to the success of recommender systems, as they help users to discover from a large pool of items a compact set of candidates that are not only interesting but exploratory as well. The challenge is that relevance and diversity usually act as two competing objectives in conventional recommender systems, which necessities the classic trade-off between exploitation and exploration. Traditionally, higher diversity often means sacrifice on relevance and vice versa. We propose a new approach, heterogeneous inference, which extends the general collaborative filtering (CF) by introducing a new way of CF inference, negative-to-positive. Heterogeneous inference achieves divergent relevance, where relevance and diversity support each other as two collaborating objectives in one recommendation model, and where recommendation diversity is an inherent outcome of the relevance inference process. Benefiting from its succinctness and flexibility, our approach is applicable to a wide range of recommendation scenarios/use-cases at various sophistication levels. Our analysis and experiments on public datasets and real-world production data show that our approach outperforms existing methods on relevance and diversity simultaneously.

J. Kenneth Tay, Nima Aghaeepour, Trevor Hastie et al.

In some supervised learning settings, the practitioner might have additional information on the features used for prediction. We propose a new method which leverages this additional information for better prediction. The method, which we call the feature-weighted elastic net ("fwelnet"), uses these "features of features" to adapt the relative penalties on the feature coefficients in the elastic net penalty. In our simulations, fwelnet outperforms the lasso in terms of test mean squared error and usually gives an improvement in true positive rate or false positive rate for feature selection. We also apply this method to early prediction of preeclampsia, where fwelnet outperforms the lasso in terms of 10-fold cross-validated area under the curve (0.86 vs. 0.80). We also provide a connection between fwelnet and the group lasso and suggest how fwelnet might be used for multi-task learning.

Trevor Hastie

Ridge or more formally $\ell_2$ regularization shows up in many areas of statistics and machine learning. It is one of those essential devices that any good data scientist needs to master for their craft. In this brief ridge fest I have collected together some of the magic and beauty of ridge that my colleagues and I have encountered over the past 40 years in applied statistics.

Trevor Hastie, Andrea Montanari, Saharon Rosset et al.

Interpolators -- estimators that achieve zero training error -- have attracted growing attention in machine learning, mainly because state-of-the art neural networks appear to be models of this type. In this paper, we study minimum $\ell_2$ norm ("ridgeless") interpolation in high-dimensional least squares regression. We consider two different models for the feature distribution: a linear model, where the feature vectors $x_i \in {\mathbb R}^p$ are obtained by applying a linear transform to a vector of i.i.d. entries, $x_i = Σ^{1/2} z_i$ (with $z_i \in {\mathbb R}^p$); and a nonlinear model, where the feature vectors are obtained by passing the input through a random one-layer neural network, $x_i = \varphi(W z_i)$ (with $z_i \in {\mathbb R}^d$, $W \in {\mathbb R}^{p \times d}$ a matrix of i.i.d. entries, and $\varphi$ an activation function acting componentwise on $W z_i$). We recover -- in a precise quantitative way -- several phenomena that have been observed in large-scale neural networks and kernel machines, including the "double descent" behavior of the prediction risk, and the potential benefits of overparametrization.

Łukasz Kidziński, Trevor Hastie

In clinical practice and biomedical research, measurements are often collected sparsely and irregularly in time while the data acquisition is expensive and inconvenient. Examples include measurements of spine bone mineral density, cancer growth through mammography or biopsy, a progression of defective vision, or assessment of gait in patients with neurological disorders. Since the data collection is often costly and inconvenient, estimation of progression from sparse observations is of great interest for practitioners. From the statistical standpoint, such data is often analyzed in the context of a mixed-effect model where time is treated as both a fixed-effect (population progression curve) and a random-effect (individual variability). Alternatively, researchers analyze Gaussian processes or functional data where observations are assumed to be drawn from a certain distribution of processes. These models are flexible but rely on probabilistic assumptions, require very careful implementation, specific to the given problem, and tend to be slow in practice. In this study, we propose an alternative elementary framework for analyzing longitudinal data, relying on matrix completion. Our method yields estimates of progression curves by iterative application of the Singular Value Decomposition. Our framework covers multivariate longitudinal data, regression, and can be easily extended to other settings. As it relies on existing tools for matrix algebra it is efficient and easy to implement. We apply our methods to understand trends of progression of motor impairment in children with Cerebral Palsy. Our model approximates individual progression curves and explains 30% of the variability. Low-rank representation of progression trends enables identification of different progression trends in subtypes of Cerebral Palsy.

Alejandro Schuler, Ken Jung, Robert Tibshirani et al.

Many decisions in healthcare, business, and other policy domains are made without the support of rigorous evidence due to the cost and complexity of performing randomized experiments. Using observational data to answer causal questions is risky: subjects who receive different treatments also differ in other ways that affect outcomes. Many causal inference methods have been developed to mitigate these biases. However, there is no way to know which method might produce the best estimate of a treatment effect in a given study. In analogy to cross-validation, which estimates the prediction error of predictive models applied to a given dataset, we propose synth-validation, a procedure that estimates the estimation error of causal inference methods applied to a given dataset. In synth-validation, we use the observed data to estimate generative distributions with known treatment effects. We apply each causal inference method to datasets sampled from these distributions and compare the effect estimates with the known effects to estimate error. Using simulations, we show that using synth-validation to select a causal inference method for each study lowers the expected estimation error relative to consistently using any single method.

Scott Powers, Junyang Qian, Kenneth Jung et al.

When devising a course of treatment for a patient, doctors often have little quantitative evidence on which to base their decisions, beyond their medical education and published clinical trials. Stanford Health Care alone has millions of electronic medical records (EMRs) that are only just recently being leveraged to inform better treatment recommendations. These data present a unique challenge because they are high-dimensional and observational. Our goal is to make personalized treatment recommendations based on the outcomes for past patients similar to a new patient. We propose and analyze three methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using observational data. Our methods perform well in simulations using a wide variety of treatment effect functions, and we present results of applying the two most promising methods to data from The SPRINT Data Analysis Challenge, from a large randomized trial of a treatment for high blood pressure.

Scott Powers, Trevor Hastie, Robert Tibshirani

We propose the nuclear norm penalty as an alternative to the ridge penalty for regularized multinomial regression. This convex relaxation of reduced-rank multinomial regression has the advantage of leveraging underlying structure among the response categories to make better predictions. We apply our method, nuclear penalized multinomial regression (NPMR), to Major League Baseball play-by-play data to predict outcome probabilities based on batter-pitcher matchups. The interpretation of the results meshes well with subject-area expertise and also suggests a novel understanding of what differentiates players.

Nicholas Boyd, Trevor Hastie, Stephen Boyd et al.

We extend the adaptive regression spline model by incorporating saturation, the natural requirement that a function extend as a constant outside a certain range. We fit saturating splines to data using a convex optimization problem over a space of measures, which we solve using an efficient algorithm based on the conditional gradient method. Unlike many existing approaches, our algorithm solves the original infinite-dimensional (for splines of degree at least two) optimization problem without pre-specified knot locations. We then adapt our algorithm to fit generalized additive models with saturating splines as coordinate functions and show that the saturation requirement allows our model to simultaneously perform feature selection and nonlinear function fitting. Finally, we briefly sketch how the method can be extended to higher order splines and to different requirements on the extension outside the data range.

Rakesh Achanta, Trevor Hastie

In this paper, we address the task of Optical Character Recognition(OCR) for the Telugu script. We present an end-to-end framework that segments the text image, classifies the characters and extracts lines using a language model. The segmentation is based on mathematical morphology. The classification module, which is the most challenging task of the three, is a deep convolutional neural network. The language is modelled as a third degree markov chain at the glyph level. Telugu script is a complex alphasyllabary and the language is agglutinative, making the problem hard. In this paper we apply the latest advances in neural networks to achieve state-of-the-art error rates. We also review convolutional neural networks in great detail and expound the statistical justification behind the many tricks needed to make Deep Learning work.

Alexandra Chouldechova, Trevor Hastie

We introduce GAMSEL (Generalized Additive Model Selection), a penalized likelihood approach for fitting sparse generalized additive models in high dimension. Our method interpolates between null, linear and additive models by allowing the effect of each variable to be estimated as being either zero, linear, or a low-complexity curve, as determined by the data. We present a blockwise coordinate descent procedure for efficiently optimizing the penalized likelihood objective over a dense grid of the tuning parameter, producing a regularization path of additive models. We demonstrate the performance of our method on both real and simulated data examples, and compare it with existing techniques for additive model selection.

Trevor Hastie, Rahul Mazumder, Jason Lee et al.

The matrix-completion problem has attracted a lot of attention, largely as a result of the celebrated Netflix competition. Two popular approaches for solving the problem are nuclear-norm-regularized matrix approximation (Candes and Tao, 2009, Mazumder, Hastie and Tibshirani, 2010), and maximum-margin matrix factorization (Srebro, Rennie and Jaakkola, 2005). These two procedures are in some cases solving equivalent problems, but with quite different algorithms. In this article we bring the two approaches together, leading to an efficient algorithm for large matrix factorization and completion that outperforms both of these. We develop a software package "softImpute" in R for implementing our approaches, and a distributed version for very large matrices using the "Spark" cluster programming environment.

Ya Le, Trevor Hastie

We develop a class of rules spanning the range between quadratic discriminant analysis and naive Bayes, through a path of sparse graphical models. A group lasso penalty is used to introduce shrinkage and encourage a similar pattern of sparsity across precision matrices. It gives sparse estimates of interactions and produces interpretable models. Inspired by the connected-components structure of the estimated precision matrices, we propose the community Bayes model, which partitions features into several conditional independent communities and splits the classification problem into separate smaller ones. The community Bayes idea is quite general and can be applied to non-Gaussian data and likelihood-based classifiers.

Noah Simon, Jerome Friedman, Trevor Hastie

In this paper we purpose a blockwise descent algorithm for group-penalized multiresponse regression. Using a quasi-newton framework we extend this to group-penalized multinomial regression. We give a publicly available implementation for these in R, and compare the speed of this algorithm to a competing algorithm --- we show that our implementation is an order of magnitude faster than its competitor, and can solve gene-expression-sized problems in real time.

Stefan Wager, Trevor Hastie, Bradley Efron

We study the variability of predictions made by bagged learners and random forests, and show how to estimate standard errors for these methods. Our work builds on variance estimates for bagging proposed by Efron (1992, 2012) that are based on the jackknife and the infinitesimal jackknife (IJ). In practice, bagged predictors are computed using a finite number B of bootstrap replicates, and working with a large B can be computationally expensive. Direct applications of jackknife and IJ estimators to bagging require B on the order of n^{1.5} bootstrap replicates to converge, where n is the size of the training set. We propose improved versions that only require B on the order of n replicates. Moreover, we show that the IJ estimator requires 1.7 times less bootstrap replicates than the jackknife to achieve a given accuracy. Finally, we study the sampling distributions of the jackknife and IJ variance estimates themselves. We illustrate our findings with multiple experiments and simulation studies.

William Fithian, Trevor Hastie

For classification problems with significant class imbalance, subsampling can reduce computational costs at the price of inflated variance in estimating model parameters. We propose a method for subsampling efficiently for logistic regression by adjusting the class balance locally in feature space via an accept-reject scheme. Our method generalizes standard case-control sampling, using a pilot estimate to preferentially select examples whose responses are conditionally rare given their features. The biased subsampling is corrected by a post-hoc analytic adjustment to the parameters. The method is simple and requires one parallelizable scan over the full data set. Standard case-control sampling is inconsistent under model misspecification for the population risk-minimizing coefficients $θ^*$. By contrast, our estimator is consistent for $θ^*$ provided that the pilot estimate is. Moreover, under correct specification and with a consistent, independent pilot estimate, our estimator has exactly twice the asymptotic variance of the full-sample MLE - even if the selected subsample comprises a miniscule fraction of the full data set, as happens when the original data are severely imbalanced. The factor of two improves to $1+\frac{1}{c}$ if we multiply the baseline acceptance probabilities by $c>1$ (and weight points with acceptance probability greater than 1), taking roughly $\frac{1+c}{2}$ times as many data points into the subsample. Experiments on simulated and real data show that our method can substantially outperform standard case-control subsampling.