Ashish Kumar Pandey

Sandeep Kumar, Koushik Biswas, Ashish Kumar Pandey

The tropical cyclone formation process is one of the most complex natural phenomena which is governed by various atmospheric, oceanographic, and geographic factors that varies with time and space. Despite several years of research, accurately predicting tropical cyclone formation remains a challenging task. While the existing numerical models have inherent limitations, the machine learning models fail to capture the spatial and temporal dimensions of the causal factors behind TC formation. In this study, a deep learning model has been proposed that can forecast the formation of a tropical cyclone with a lead time of up to 60 hours with high accuracy. The model uses the high-resolution reanalysis data ERA5 (ECMWF reanalysis 5th generation), and best track data IBTrACS (International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship) to forecast tropical cyclone formation in six ocean basins of the world. For 60 hours lead time the models achieve an accuracy in the range of 86.9% - 92.9% across the six ocean basins. The model takes about 5-15 minutes of training time depending on the ocean basin, and the amount of data used and can predict within seconds, thereby making it suitable for real-life usage.

Koushik Biswas, Sandeep Kumar, Shilpak Banerjee et al.

Deep learning researchers have a keen interest in proposing two new novel activation functions which can boost network performance. A good choice of activation function can have significant consequences in improving network performance. A handcrafted activation is the most common choice in neural network models. ReLU is the most common choice in the deep learning community due to its simplicity though ReLU has some serious drawbacks. In this paper, we have proposed a new novel activation function based on approximation of known activation functions like Leaky ReLU, and we call this function Smooth Maximum Unit (SMU). Replacing ReLU by SMU, we have got 6.22% improvement in the CIFAR100 dataset with the ShuffleNet V2 model.

Koushik Biswas, Sandeep Kumar, Shilpak Banerjee et al.

An activation function is a crucial component of a neural network that introduces non-linearity in the network. The state-of-the-art performance of a neural network depends also on the perfect choice of an activation function. We propose two novel non-monotonic smooth trainable activation functions, called ErfAct and Pserf. Experiments suggest that the proposed functions improve the network performance significantly compared to the widely used activations like ReLU, Swish, and Mish. Replacing ReLU by ErfAct and Pserf, we have 5.68% and 5.42% improvement for top-1 accuracy on Shufflenet V2 (2.0x) network in CIFAR100 dataset, 2.11% and 1.96% improvement for top-1 accuracy on Shufflenet V2 (2.0x) network in CIFAR10 dataset, 1.0%, and 1.0% improvement on mean average precision (mAP) on SSD300 model in Pascal VOC dataset.

Sandeep Kumar, Koushik Biswas, Ashish Kumar Pandey

Landfall of a tropical cyclone is the event when it moves over the land after crossing the coast of the ocean. It is important to know the characteristics of the landfall in terms of location and time, well advance in time to take preventive measures timely. In this article, we develop a deep learning model based on the combination of a Convolutional Neural network and a Long Short-Term memory network to predict the landfall's location and time of a tropical cyclone in six ocean basins of the world with high accuracy. We have used high-resolution spacial reanalysis data, ERA5, maintained by European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). The model takes any 9 hours, 15 hours, or 21 hours of data, during the progress of a tropical cyclone and predicts its landfall's location in terms of latitude and longitude and time in hours. For 21 hours of data, we achieve mean absolute error for landfall's location prediction in the range of 66.18 - 158.92 kilometers and for landfall's time prediction in the range of 4.71 - 8.20 hours across all six ocean basins. The model can be trained in just 30 to 45 minutes (based on ocean basin) and can predict the landfall's location and time in a few seconds, which makes it suitable for real time prediction.