Miguel Arana-Catania

Runcong Zhao, Miguel Arana-Catania, Lixing Zhu et al.

In this demo, we introduce a web-based misinformation detection system PANACEA on COVID-19 related claims, which has two modules, fact-checking and rumour detection. Our fact-checking module, which is supported by novel natural language inference methods with a self-attention network, outperforms state-of-the-art approaches. It is also able to give automated veracity assessment and ranked supporting evidence with the stance towards the claim to be checked. In addition, PANACEA adapts the bi-directional graph convolutional networks model, which is able to detect rumours based on comment networks of related tweets, instead of relying on the knowledge base. This rumour detection module assists by warning the users in the early stages when a knowledge base may not be available.

Marco Ruiz, Miguel Arana-Catania, David R. Ardila et al.

Time-series causal discovery methods rely on assumptions such as stationarity, regular sampling, and bounded temporal dependence. When these assumptions are violated, structure learning can produce confident but misleading causal graphs without warning. We introduce Causal-Audit, a framework that formalizes assumption validation as calibrated risk assessment. The framework computes effect-size diagnostics across five assumption families (stationarity, irregularity, persistence, nonlinearity, and confounding proxies), aggregates them into four calibrated risk scores with uncertainty intervals, and applies an abstention-aware decision policy that recommends methods (e.g., PCMCI+, VAR-based Granger causality) only when evidence supports reliable inference. The semi-automatic diagnostic stage can also be used independently for structured assumption auditing in individual studies. Evaluation on a synthetic atlas of 500 data-generating processes (DGPs) spanning 10 violation families demonstrates well-calibrated risk scores (AUROC > 0.95), a 62% false positive reduction among recommended datasets, and 78% abstention on severe-violation cases. On 21 external evaluations from TimeGraph (18 categories) and CausalTime (3 domains), recommend-or-abstain decisions are consistent with benchmark specifications in all cases. An open-source implementation of our framework is available.

Julian Gerald Dcruz, Sam Mahoney, Jia Yun Chua et al.

Autonomous operations of robots in unknown environments are challenging due to the lack of knowledge of the dynamics of the interactions, such as the objects' movability. This work introduces a novel Causal Reinforcement Learning approach to enhancing robotics operations and applies it to an urban search and rescue (SAR) scenario. Our proposed machine learning architecture enables robots to learn the causal relationships between the visual characteristics of the objects, such as texture and shape, and the objects' dynamics upon interaction, such as their movability, significantly improving their decision-making processes. We conducted causal discovery and RL experiments demonstrating the Causal RL's superior performance, showing a notable reduction in learning times by over 24.5% in complex situations, compared to non-causal models.

İrem Üstek, Miguel Arana-Catania, Alexander Farr et al.

Wildfires pose a significantly increasing hazard to global ecosystems due to the climate crisis. Due to its complex nature, there is an urgent need for innovative approaches to wildfire prediction, such as machine learning. This research took a unique approach, differentiating from classical supervised learning, and addressed the gap in unsupervised wildfire prediction using autoencoders and clustering techniques for anomaly detection. Historical weather and normalised difference vegetation index datasets of Australia for 2005 - 2021 were utilised. Two main unsupervised approaches were analysed. The first used a deep autoencoder to obtain latent features, which were then fed into clustering models, isolation forest, local outlier factor and one-class SVM for anomaly detection. The second approach used a deep autoencoder to reconstruct the input data and use reconstruction errors to identify anomalies. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) autoencoders and fully connected (FC) autoencoders were employed in this part, both in an unsupervised way learning only from nominal data. The FC autoencoder outperformed its counterparts, achieving an accuracy of 0.71, an F1-score of 0.74, and an MCC of 0.42. These findings highlight the practicality of this method, as it effectively predicts wildfires in the absence of ground truth, utilising an unsupervised learning technique.

Konstantinos Platanitis, Miguel Arana-Catania, Leonardo Capicchiano et al.

This paper presents a machine learning approach to estimate the inertial parameters of a spacecraft in cases when those change during operations, e.g. multiple deployments of payloads, unfolding of appendages and booms, propellant consumption as well as during in-orbit servicing and active debris removal operations. The machine learning approach uses time series clustering together with an optimised actuation sequence generated by reinforcement learning to facilitate distinguishing among different inertial parameter sets. The performance of the proposed strategy is assessed against the case of a multi-satellite deployment system showing that the algorithm is resilient towards common disturbances in such kinds of operations.

Abdulaziz Alwalan, Miguel Arana-Catania

In this work we demonstrate the possibility of estimating the wind environment of a UAV without specialised sensors, using only the UAV's trajectory, applying a causal machine learning approach. We implement the causal curiosity method which combines machine learning times series classification and clustering with a causal framework. We analyse three distinct wind environments: constant wind, shear wind, and turbulence, and explore different optimisation strategies for optimal UAV manoeuvres to estimate the wind conditions. The proposed approach can be used to design optimal trajectories in challenging weather conditions, and to avoid specialised sensors that add to the UAV's weight and compromise its functionality.

Jia Yun Chua, Argyrios Zolotas, Miguel Arana-Catania

Remote sensing has become a vital tool across sectors such as urban planning, environmental monitoring, and disaster response. While the volume of data generated has increased significantly, traditional vision models are often constrained by the requirement for extensive domain-specific labelled data and their limited ability to understand the context within complex environments. Vision Language Models offer a complementary approach by integrating visual and textual data; however, their application to remote sensing remains underexplored, particularly given their generalist nature. This work investigates the combination of vision models and VLMs to enhance image analysis in remote sensing, with a focus on aircraft detection and scene understanding. The integration of YOLO with VLMs such as LLaVA, ChatGPT, and Gemini aims to achieve more accurate and contextually aware image interpretation. Performance is evaluated on both labelled and unlabelled remote sensing data, as well as degraded image scenarios which are crucial for remote sensing. The findings show an average MAE improvement of 48.46% across models in the accuracy of aircraft detection and counting, especially in challenging conditions, in both raw and degraded scenarios. A 6.17% improvement in CLIPScore for comprehensive understanding of remote sensing images is obtained. The proposed approach combining traditional vision models and VLMs paves the way for more advanced and efficient remote sensing image analysis, especially in few-shot learning scenarios.

Angel Pan Du, Miguel Arana-Catania, Enric Grustan Gutiérrez

Artificial Intelligence algorithms are introduced in this work as a tool to predict the performance of new chemical compounds as alternative propellants for electric propulsion, focusing on predicting their ionisation characteristics and fragmentation patterns. The chemical properties and structure of the compounds are encoded using a chemical fingerprint, and the training datasets are extracted from the NIST WebBook. The AI-predicted ionisation energy and minimum appearance energy have a mean relative error of 6.87% and 7.99%, respectively, and a predicted ion mass with a 23.89% relative error. In the cases of full mass spectra due to electron ionisation, the predictions have a cosine similarity of 0.6395 and align with the top 10 most similar mass spectra in 78% of instances within a 30 Da range.

Yan-Shan Lu, Miguel Arana-Catania, Saurabh Upadhyay et al.

Mars exploration requires precise and reliable terrain models to ensure safe rover navigation across its unpredictable and often hazardous landscapes. Stereoscopic vision serves a critical role in the rover's perception, allowing scene reconstruction by generating precise depth maps through stereo matching. State-of-the-art Martian planetary exploration uses traditional local block-matching, aggregates cost over square windows, and refines disparities via smoothness constraints. However, this method often struggles with low-texture images, occlusion, and repetitive patterns because it considers only limited neighbouring pixels and lacks a wider understanding of scene context. This paper uses Semi-Global Matching (SGM) with superpixel-based refinement to mitigate the inherent block artefacts and recover lost details. The approach balances the efficiency and accuracy of SGM and adds context-aware segmentation to support more coherent depth inference. The proposed method has been evaluated in three datasets with successful results: In a Mars analogue, the terrain maps obtained show improved structural consistency, particularly in sloped or occlusion-prone regions. Large gaps behind rocks, which are common in raw disparity outputs, are reduced, and surface details like small rocks and edges are captured more accurately. Another two datasets, evaluated to test the method's general robustness and adaptability, show more precise disparity maps and more consistent terrain models, better suited for the demands of autonomous navigation on Mars, and competitive accuracy across both non-occluded and full-image error metrics. This paper outlines the entire terrain modelling process, from finding corresponding features to generating the final 2D navigation maps, offering a complete pipeline suitable for integration in future planetary exploration missions.

Julian Gerald Dcruz, Argyrios Zolotas, Niall Ross Greenwood et al.

With artificial intelligence (AI) being applied to bring autonomy to decision-making in safety-critical domains such as the ones typified in the aerospace and emergency-response services, there has been a call to address the ethical implications of structuring those decisions, so they remain reliable and justifiable when human lives are at stake. This paper contributes to addressing the challenge of decision-making by proposing a structured decision-making framework as a foundational step towards responsible AI. The proposed structured decision-making framework is implemented in autonomous decision-making, specifically within disaster management. By introducing concepts of Enabler agents, Levels and Scenarios, the proposed framework's performance is evaluated against systems relying solely on judgement-based insights, as well as human operators who have disaster experience: victims, volunteers, and stakeholders. The results demonstrate that the structured decision-making framework achieves 60.94% greater stability in consistently accurate decisions across multiple Scenarios, compared to judgement-based systems. Moreover, the study shows that the proposed framework outperforms human operators with a 38.93% higher accuracy across various Scenarios. These findings demonstrate the promise of the structured decision-making framework for building more reliable autonomous AI applications in safety-critical contexts.

Haitao Tian, Argyrios Zolotas, Miguel Arana-Catania

In this study, we explore the use of Convolutional Neural Networks for improving train speed estimation accuracy, addressing the complex challenges of modern railway systems. We investigate three CNN architectures - single-branch 2D, single-branch 1D, and multiple-branch models - and compare them with the Adaptive Kalman Filter. We analyse their performance using simulated train operation datasets with and without Wheel Slide Protection activation. Our results reveal that CNN-based approaches, especially the multiple-branch model, demonstrate superior accuracy and robustness compared to traditional methods, particularly under challenging operational conditions. These findings highlight the potential of deep learning techniques to enhance railway safety and operational efficiency by more effectively capturing intricate patterns in complex transportation datasets.

Nouf Almesafri, Hector Figueiredo, Miguel Arana-Catania

This study investigates the performance of the two most relevant computer vision deep learning architectures, Convolutional Neural Network and Vision Transformer, for event-based cameras. These cameras capture scene changes, unlike traditional frame-based cameras with capture static images, and are particularly suited for dynamic environments such as UAVs and autonomous vehicles. The deep learning models studied in this work are ResNet34 and ViT B16, fine-tuned on the GEN1 event-based dataset. The research evaluates and compares these models under both standard conditions and in the presence of simulated noise. Initial evaluations on the clean GEN1 dataset reveal that ResNet34 and ViT B16 achieve accuracies of 88% and 86%, respectively, with ResNet34 showing a slight advantage in classification accuracy. However, the ViT B16 model demonstrates notable robustness, particularly given its pre-training on a smaller dataset. Although this study focuses on ground-based vehicle classification, the methodologies and findings hold significant promise for adaptation to UAV contexts, including aerial object classification and event-based vision systems for aviation-related tasks.

Miguel Arana-Catania, Weisi Guo

Causal understanding is important in many disciplines of science and engineering, where we seek to understand how different factors in the system causally affect an experiment or situation and pave a pathway towards creating effective or optimising existing models. Examples of use cases are autonomous exploration and modelling of unknown environments or assessing key variables in optimising large complex systems. In this paper, we analyse a Reinforcement Learning approach called Causal Curiosity, which aims to estimate as accurately and efficiently as possible, without directly measuring them, the value of factors that causally determine the dynamics of a system. Whilst the idea presents a pathway forward, measurement accuracy is the foundation of methodology effectiveness. Focusing on the current causal curiosity's robotic manipulator, we present for the first time a measurement accuracy analysis of the future potentials and current limitations of this technique and an analysis of its sensitivity and confounding factor disentanglement capability - crucial for causal analysis. As a result of our work, we promote proposals for an improved and efficient design of Causal Curiosity methods to be applied to real-world complex scenarios.

Konstantinos Platanitis, Miguel Arana-Catania, Saurabh Upadhyay et al.

This paper discusses an approach to inertial parameter estimation for the case of cargo carrying spacecraft that is based on causal learning, i.e. learning from the responses of the spacecraft, under actuation. Different spacecraft configurations (inertial parameter sets) are simulated under different actuation profiles, in order to produce an optimised time-series clustering classifier that can be used to distinguish between them. The actuation is comprised of finite sequences of constant inputs that are applied in order, based on typical actuators available. By learning from the system's responses across multiple input sequences, and then applying measures of time-series similarity and F1-score, an optimal actuation sequence can be chosen either for one specific system configuration or for the overall set of possible configurations. This allows for both estimation of the inertial parameter set without any prior knowledge of state, as well as validation of transitions between different configurations after a deployment event. The optimisation of the actuation sequence is handled by a reinforcement learning model that uses the proximal policy optimisation (PPO) algorithm, by repeatedly trying different sequences and evaluating the impact on classifier performance according to a multi-objective metric.

Iman Munire Bilal, Zheng Fang, Miguel Arana-Catania et al.

As academic literature proliferates, traditional review methods are increasingly challenged by the sheer volume and diversity of available research. This article presents a study that aims to address these challenges by enhancing the efficiency and scope of systematic reviews in the social sciences through advanced machine learning (ML) and natural language processing (NLP) tools. In particular, we focus on automating stages within the systematic reviewing process that are time-intensive and repetitive for human annotators and which lend themselves to immediate scalability through tools such as information retrieval and summarisation guided by expert advice. The article concludes with a summary of lessons learnt regarding the integrated approach towards systematic reviews and future directions for improvement, including explainability.

Zheng Fang, Miguel Arana-Catania, Felix-Anselm van Lier et al.

The sheer number of research outputs published every year makes systematic reviewing increasingly time- and resource-intensive. This paper explores the use of machine learning techniques to help navigate the systematic review process. ML has previously been used to reliably 'screen' articles for review - that is, identify relevant articles based on reviewers' inclusion criteria. The application of ML techniques to subsequent stages of a review, however, such as data extraction and evidence mapping, is in its infancy. We therefore set out to develop a series of tools that would assist in the profiling and analysis of 1,952 publications on the theme of 'outcomes-based contracting'. Tools were developed for the following tasks: assign publications into 'policy area' categories; identify and extract key information for evidence mapping, such as organisations, laws, and geographical information; connect the evidence base to an existing dataset on the same topic; and identify subgroups of articles that may share thematic content. An interactive tool using these techniques and a public dataset with their outputs have been released. Our results demonstrate the utility of ML techniques to enhance evidence accessibility and analysis within the systematic review processes. These efforts show promise in potentially yielding substantial efficiencies for future systematic reviewing and for broadening their analytical scope. Our work suggests that there may be implications for the ease with which policymakers and practitioners can access evidence. While ML techniques seem poised to play a significant role in bridging the gap between research and policy by offering innovative ways of gathering, accessing, and analysing data from systematic reviews, we also highlight their current limitations and the need to exercise caution in their application, particularly given the potential for errors and biases.

Jonathan Davies, Miguel Arana-Catania, Rob Procter et al.

In recent years participatory budgeting (PB) in Scotland has grown from a handful of community-led processes to a movement supported by local and national government. This is epitomized by an agreement between the Scottish Government and the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities (COSLA) that at least 1% of local authority budgets will be subject to PB. This ongoing research paper explores the challenges that emerge from this 'scaling up' or 'mainstreaming' across the 32 local authorities that make up Scotland. The main objective is to evaluate local authority use of the digital platform Consul, which applies Natural Language Processing (NLP) to address these challenges. This project adopts a qualitative longitudinal design with interviews, observations of PB processes, and analysis of the digital platform data. Thematic analysis is employed to capture the major issues and themes which emerge. Longitudinal analysis then explores how these evolve over time. The potential for 32 live study sites provides a unique opportunity to explore discrete political and social contexts which materialize and allow for a deeper dive into the challenges and issues that may exist, something a wider cross-sectional study would miss. Initial results show that issues and challenges which come from scaling up may be tackled using NLP technology which, in a previous controlled use case-based evaluation, has shown to improve the effectiveness of citizen participation.