Marianne Clausel

Dimitri Bouche, Rémi Flamary, Florence d'Alché-Buc et al.

We study short-term prediction of wind speed and wind power (every 10 minutes up to 4 hours ahead). Accurate forecasts for these quantities are crucial to mitigate the negative effects of wind farms' intermittent production on energy systems and markets. We use machine learning to combine outputs from numerical weather prediction models with local observations. The former provide valuable information on higher scales dynamics while the latter gives the model fresher and location-specific data. So as to make the results usable for practitioners, we focus on well-known methods which can handle a high volume of data. We study first variable selection using both a linear technique and a nonlinear one. Then we exploit these results to forecast wind speed and wind power still with an emphasis on linear models versus nonlinear ones. For the wind power prediction, we also compare the indirect approach (wind speed predictions passed through a power curve) and the indirect one (directly predict wind power).

Rohit Agarwal, Aman Sinha, Ayan Vishwakarma et al.

Modeling irregularly-sampled time series (ISTS) is challenging because of missing values. Most existing methods focus on handling ISTS by converting irregularly sampled data into regularly sampled data via imputation. These models assume an underlying missing mechanism, which may lead to unwanted bias and sub-optimal performance. We present SLAN (Switch LSTM Aggregate Network), which utilizes a group of LSTMs to model ISTS without imputation, eliminating the assumption of any underlying process. It dynamically adapts its architecture on the fly based on the measured sensors using switches. SLAN exploits the irregularity information to explicitly capture each sensor's local summary and maintains a global summary state throughout the observational period. We demonstrate the efficacy of SLAN on two public datasets, namely, MIMIC-III, and Physionet 2012.

Clément Yvernes, Emilie Devijver, Marianne Clausel et al.

Identifying the effect of a treatment from observational data typically requires assuming a fully specified causal diagram. However, such diagrams are rarely known in practice, especially in complex or high-dimensional settings. To overcome this limitation, recent works have explored the use of causal abstractions-simplified representations that retain partial causal information. In this paper, we consider causal abstractions formalized as collections of causal diagrams, and focus on the identifiability of causal queries within such collections. We introduce and formalize several identifiability criteria under this setting. Our main contribution is to organize these criteria into a structured hierarchy, highlighting their relationships. This hierarchical view enables a clearer understanding of what can be identified under varying levels of causal knowledge. We illustrate our framework through examples from the literature and provide tools to reason about identifiability when full causal knowledge is unavailable.

Alexandre Seiller, Éric Gaussier, Emilie Devijver et al.

Tree-based ensemble methods such as random forests, gradient-boosted trees, and Bayesianadditive regression trees have been successfully used for regression problems in many applicationsand research studies. In this paper, we study ensemble versions of probabilisticregression trees that provide smooth approximations of the objective function by assigningeach observation to each region with respect to a probability distribution. We prove thatthe ensemble versions of probabilistic regression trees considered are consistent, and experimentallystudy their bias-variance trade-off and compare them with the state-of-the-art interms of performance prediction.