Jiawei Han

Jimeng Shi, Bowen Jin, Jiawei Han et al.

Accurate weather forecasting is critical for science and society. Yet, existing methods have not managed to simultaneously have the properties of high accuracy, low uncertainty, and high computational efficiency. On one hand, to quantify the uncertainty in weather predictions, the strategy of ensemble forecast (i.e., generating a set of diverse predictions) is often employed. However, traditional ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) is computationally intensive. On the other hand, most existing machine learning-based weather prediction (MLWP) approaches are efficient and accurate. Nevertheless, they are deterministic and cannot capture the uncertainty of weather forecasting. In this work, we propose CoDiCast, a conditional diffusion model to generate accurate global weather prediction, while achieving uncertainty quantification with ensemble forecasts and modest computational cost. The key idea is to simulate a conditional version of the reverse denoising process in diffusion models, which starts from pure Gaussian noise to generate realistic weather scenarios for a future time point. Each denoising step is conditioned on observations from the recent past. Ensemble forecasts are achieved by repeatedly sampling from stochastic Gaussian noise to represent uncertainty quantification. CoDiCast is trained on a decade of ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Experimental results demonstrate that our approach outperforms several existing data-driven methods in accuracy. Our conditional diffusion model, CoDiCast, can generate 6-day global weather forecasts, at 6-hour steps and $5.625^\circ$ latitude-longitude resolution, for over 5 variables, in about 12 minutes on a commodity A100 GPU machine with 80GB memory. The open-souced code is provided at https://github.com/JimengShi/CoDiCast.

Shansan Gong, Shivam Agarwal, Yizhe Zhang et al.

Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) have emerged as a promising new paradigm for text generative modeling, potentially addressing limitations of autoregressive (AR) models. However, current DLMs have been studied at a smaller scale compared to their AR counterparts and lack fair comparison on language modeling benchmarks. Additionally, training diffusion models from scratch at scale remains challenging. Given the prevalence of open-source AR language models, we propose adapting these models to build text diffusion models. We demonstrate connections between AR and diffusion modeling objectives and introduce a simple continual pre-training approach for training diffusion models. Through systematic evaluation on language modeling, reasoning, and commonsense benchmarks, we show that we can convert AR models ranging from 127M to 7B parameters (GPT2 and LLaMA) into diffusion models DiffuGPT and DiffuLLaMA, using less than 200B tokens for training. Our experimental results reveal that these models outperform earlier DLMs and are competitive with their AR counterparts. We release a suite of DLMs (127M-355M-7B) capable of generating fluent text, performing in-context learning, filling in the middle without prompt re-ordering, and following instructions https://github.com/HKUNLP/DiffuLLaMA.

Zexing Xu, Linjun Zhang, Sitan Yang et al.

Demand prediction is a crucial task for e-commerce and physical retail businesses, especially during high-stake sales events. However, the limited availability of historical data from these peak periods poses a significant challenge for traditional forecasting methods. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that leverages strategically chosen proxy data reflective of potential sales patterns from similar entities during non-peak periods, enriched by features learned from a graph neural networks (GNNs)-based forecasting model, to predict demand during peak events. We formulate the demand prediction as a meta-learning problem and develop the Feature-based First-Order Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (F-FOMAML) algorithm that leverages proxy data from non-peak periods and GNN-generated relational metadata to learn feature-specific layer parameters, thereby adapting to demand forecasts for peak events. Theoretically, we show that by considering domain similarities through task-specific metadata, our model achieves improved generalization, where the excess risk decreases as the number of training tasks increases. Empirical evaluations on large-scale industrial datasets demonstrate the superiority of our approach. Compared to existing state-of-the-art models, our method demonstrates a notable improvement in demand prediction accuracy, reducing the Mean Absolute Error by 26.24% on an internal vending machine dataset and by 1.04% on the publicly accessible JD.com dataset.

Ryo Kamoi, Yusen Zhang, Nan Zhang et al.

Self-correction is an approach to improving responses from large language models (LLMs) by refining the responses using LLMs during inference. Prior work has proposed various self-correction frameworks using different sources of feedback, including self-evaluation and external feedback. However, there is still no consensus on the question of when LLMs can correct their own mistakes, as recent studies also report negative results. In this work, we critically survey broad papers and discuss the conditions required for successful self-correction. We first find that prior studies often do not define their research questions in detail and involve impractical frameworks or unfair evaluations that over-evaluate self-correction. To tackle these issues, we categorize research questions in self-correction research and provide a checklist for designing appropriate experiments. Our critical survey based on the newly categorized research questions shows that (1) no prior work demonstrates successful self-correction with feedback from prompted LLMs, except for studies in tasks that are exceptionally suited for self-correction, (2) self-correction works well in tasks that can use reliable external feedback, and (3) large-scale fine-tuning enables self-correction.