Riccardo Cadei

Dingling Yao, Dario Rancati, Riccardo Cadei et al.

Causal representation learning (CRL) aims at recovering latent causal variables from high-dimensional observations to solve causal downstream tasks, such as predicting the effect of new interventions or more robust classification. A plethora of methods have been developed, each tackling carefully crafted problem settings that lead to different types of identifiability. These different settings are widely assumed to be important because they are often linked to different rungs of Pearl's causal hierarchy, even though this correspondence is not always exact. This work shows that instead of strictly conforming to this hierarchical mapping, many causal representation learning approaches methodologically align their representations with inherent data symmetries. Identification of causal variables is guided by invariance principles that are not necessarily causal. This result allows us to unify many existing approaches in a single method that can mix and match different assumptions, including non-causal ones, based on the invariance relevant to the problem at hand. It also significantly benefits applicability, which we demonstrate by improving treatment effect estimation on real-world high-dimensional ecological data. Overall, this paper clarifies the role of causal assumptions in the discovery of causal variables and shifts the focus to preserving data symmetries.

Riccardo Cadei, Ilker Demirel, Piersilvio De Bartolomeis et al. · eth-zurich

In many scientific experiments, the data annotating cost constraints the pace for testing novel hypotheses. Yet, modern machine learning pipelines offer a promising solution, provided their predictions yield correct conclusions. We focus on Prediction-Powered Causal Inferences (PPCI), i.e., estimating the treatment effect in an unlabeled target experiment, relying on training data with the same outcome annotated but potentially different treatment or effect modifiers. We first show that conditional calibration guarantees valid PPCI at population level. Then, we introduce a sufficient representation constraint transferring validity across experiments, which we propose to enforce in practice in Deconfounded Empirical Risk Minimization, our new model-agnostic training objective. We validate our method on synthetic and real-world scientific data, solving impossible problem instances for Empirical Risk Minimization even with standard invariance constraints. In particular, for the first time, we achieve valid causal inference on a scientific experiment with complex recording and no human annotations, fine-tuning a foundational model on our similar annotated experiment.

Riccardo Cadei, Christian Internò

Modern foundational models increasingly reflect not just world knowledge, but patterns of human preference embedded in their training data. We hypothesize that recursive alignment-via human feedback and model-generated corpora-induces a social desirability bias, nudging models to favor agreeable or flattering responses over objective reasoning. We refer to it as the Narcissus Hypothesis and test it across 31 models using standardized personality assessments and a novel Social Desirability Bias score. Results reveal a significant drift toward socially conforming traits, with profound implications for corpus integrity and the reliability of downstream inferences. We then offer a novel epistemological interpretation, tracing how recursive bias may collapse higher-order reasoning down Pearl's Ladder of Causality, culminating in what we refer to as the Rung of Illusion.

Dingling Yao, Shimeng Huang, Riccardo Cadei et al.

Causal reasoning and discovery, two fundamental tasks of causal analysis, often face challenges in applications due to the complexity, noisiness, and high-dimensionality of real-world data. Despite recent progress in identifying latent causal structures using causal representation learning (CRL), what makes learned representations useful for causal downstream tasks and how to evaluate them are still not well understood. In this paper, we reinterpret CRL using a measurement model framework, where the learned representations are viewed as proxy measurements of the latent causal variables. Our approach clarifies the conditions under which learned representations support downstream causal reasoning and provides a principled basis for quantitatively assessing the quality of representations using a new Test-based Measurement EXclusivity (T-MEX) score. We validate T-MEX across diverse causal inference scenarios, including numerical simulations and real-world ecological video analysis, demonstrating that the proposed framework and corresponding score effectively assess the identification of learned representations and their usefulness for causal downstream tasks.

Tommaso Mencattini, Riccardo Cadei, Francesco Locatello

Randomized Controlled Trials are one of the pillars of science; nevertheless, they rely on hand-crafted hypotheses and expensive analysis. Such constraints prevent causal effect estimation at scale, potentially anchoring on popular yet incomplete hypotheses. We propose to discover the unknown effects of a treatment directly from data. For this, we turn unstructured data from a trial into meaningful representations via pretrained foundation models and interpret them via a sparse autoencoder. However, discovering significant causal effects at the neural level is not trivial due to multiple-testing issues and effects entanglement. To address these challenges, we introduce Neural Effect Search, a novel recursive procedure solving both issues by progressive stratification. After assessing the robustness of our algorithm on semi-synthetic experiments, we showcase, in the context of experimental ecology, the first successful unsupervised causal effect identification on a real-world scientific trial.

Yuejiang Liu, Riccardo Cadei, Jonas Schweizer et al.

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi, Riccardo Cadei, Kwonsang Lee et al.

In health and social sciences, it is critically important to identify subgroups of the study population where there is notable heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE) with respect to the population average. Decision trees have been proposed and commonly adopted for the data-driven discovery of HTE due to their high level of interpretability. However, single-tree discovery of HTE can be unstable and oversimplified. This paper introduces the Causal Rule Ensemble (CRE), a new method for HTE discovery and estimation using an ensemble-of-trees approach. CRE offers several key features, including 1) an interpretable representation of the HTE; 2) the ability to explore complex heterogeneity patterns; and 3) high stability in subgroups discovery. The discovered subgroups are defined in terms of interpretable decision rules. Estimation of subgroup-specific causal effects is performed via a two-stage approach, for which we provide theoretical guarantees. Through simulations, we show that the CRE method is highly competitive compared to state-of-the-art techniques. Finally, we apply CRE to discover the heterogeneous health effects of exposure to air pollution on mortality for 35.3 million Medicare beneficiaries across the contiguous U.S.