David Sher

Michael Dohopolski, Kai Wang, Biling Wang et al.

Prediction uncertainty estimation has clinical significance as it can potentially quantify prediction reliability. Clinicians may trust 'blackbox' models more if robust reliability information is available, which may lead to more models being adopted into clinical practice. There are several deep learning-inspired uncertainty estimation techniques, but few are implemented on medical datasets -- fewer on single institutional datasets/models. We sought to compare dropout variational inference (DO), test-time augmentation (TTA), conformal predictions, and single deterministic methods for estimating uncertainty using our model trained to predict feeding tube placement for 271 head and neck cancer patients treated with radiation. We compared the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) trends for each method at various cutoffs that sought to stratify patients into 'certain' and 'uncertain' cohorts. These cutoffs were obtained by calculating the percentile "uncertainty" within the validation cohort and applied to the testing cohort. Broadly, the AUC, sensitivity, and NPV increased as the predictions were more 'certain' -- i.e., lower uncertainty estimates. However, when a majority vote (implementing 2/3 criteria: DO, TTA, conformal predictions) or a stricter approach (3/3 criteria) were used, AUC, sensitivity, and NPV improved without a notable loss in specificity or PPV. Especially for smaller, single institutional datasets, it may be important to evaluate multiple estimations techniques before incorporating a model into clinical practice.

Meixu Chen, Kai Wang, Michael Dohopolski et al.

Early identification of head and neck cancer (HNC) patients who would experience significant anatomical change during radiotherapy (RT) is important to optimize patient clinical benefit and treatment resources. This study aims to assess the feasibility of using a vision-transformer (ViT) based neural network to predict RT-induced anatomic change in HNC patients. We retrospectively included 121 HNC patients treated with definitive RT/CRT. We collected the planning CT (pCT), planned dose, CBCTs acquired at the initial treatment (CBCT01) and fraction 21 (CBCT21), and primary tumor volume (GTVp) and involved nodal volume (GTVn) delineated on both pCT and CBCTs for model construction and evaluation. A UNet-style ViT network was designed to learn spatial correspondence and contextual information from embedded CT, dose, CBCT01, GTVp, and GTVn image patches. The model estimated the deformation vector field between CBCT01 and CBCT21 as the prediction of anatomic change, and deformed CBCT01 was used as the prediction of CBCT21. We also generated binary masks of GTVp, GTVn, and patient body for volumetric change evaluation. The predicted image from the proposed method yielded the best similarity to the real image (CBCT21) over pCT, CBCT01, and predicted CBCTs from other comparison models. The average MSE and SSIM between the normalized predicted CBCT to CBCT21 are 0.009 and 0.933, while the average dice coefficient between body mask, GTVp mask, and GTVn mask are 0.972, 0.792, and 0.821 respectively. The proposed method showed promising performance for predicting radiotherapy-induced anatomic change, which has the potential to assist in the decision-making of HNC Adaptive RT.

Dan Nguyen, Xun Jia, David Sher et al.

The treatment planning process for patients with head and neck (H&N) cancer is regarded as one of the most complicated due to large target volume, multiple prescription dose levels, and many radiation-sensitive critical structures near the target. Treatment planning for this site requires a high level of human expertise and a tremendous amount of effort to produce personalized high quality plans, taking as long as a week, which deteriorates the chances of tumor control and patient survival. To solve this problem, we propose to investigate a deep learning-based dose prediction model, Hierarchically Densely Connected U-net, based on two highly popular network architectures: U-net and DenseNet. We find that this new architecture is able to accurately and efficiently predict the dose distribution, outperforming the other two models, the Standard U-net and DenseNet, in homogeneity, dose conformity, and dose coverage on the test data. Averaging across all organs at risk, our proposed model is capable of predicting the organ-at-risk max dose within 6.3% and mean dose within 5.1% of the prescription dose on the test data. The other models, the Standard U-net and DenseNet, performed worse, having an averaged organ-at-risk max dose prediction error of 8.2% and 9.3%, respectively, and averaged mean dose prediction error of 6.4% and 6.8%, respectively. In addition, our proposed model used 12 times less trainable parameters than the Standard U-net, and predicted the patient dose 4 times faster than DenseNet.

David Sher

Most feature detectors such as edge detectors or circle finders are statistical, in the sense that they decide at each point in an image about the presence of a feature, this paper describes the use of Bayesian feature detectors.

David Sher

Mode {also called MAP} estimation, mean estimation and median estimation are examined here to determine when they can be safely used to derive {posterior) cost minimizing estimates. (These are all Bayes procedures, using the mode. mean. or median of the posterior distribution). It is found that modal estimation only returns cost minimizing estimates when the cost function is 0-t. If the cost function is a function of distance then mean estimation only returns cost minimizing estimates when the cost function is squared distance from the true value and median estimation only returns cost minimizing estimates when the cost function ts the distance from the true value. Results are presented on the goodness or modal estimation with non 0-t cost functions

David Sher

A scientific reasoning system makes decisions using objective evidence in the form of independent experimental trials, propositional axioms, and constraints on the probabilities of events. As a first step towards this goal, we propose a system that derives probability intervals from objective evidence in those forms. Our reasoning system can manage uncertainty about data and rules in a rule based expert system. We expect that our system will be particularly applicable to diagnosis and analysis in domains with a wealth of experimental evidence such as medicine. We discuss limitations of this solution and propose future directions for this research. This work can be considered a generalization of Nilsson's "probabilistic logic" [Nil86] to intervals and experimental observations.