Tianning Zhang

Kang Chen, Tao Han, Junchao Gong et al.

We present FengWu, an advanced data-driven global medium-range weather forecast system based on Artificial Intelligence (AI). Different from existing data-driven weather forecast methods, FengWu solves the medium-range forecast problem from a multi-modal and multi-task perspective. Specifically, a deep learning architecture equipped with model-specific encoder-decoders and cross-modal fusion Transformer is elaborately designed, which is learned under the supervision of an uncertainty loss to balance the optimization of different predictors in a region-adaptive manner. Besides this, a replay buffer mechanism is introduced to improve medium-range forecast performance. With 39-year data training based on the ERA5 reanalysis, FengWu is able to accurately reproduce the atmospheric dynamics and predict the future land and atmosphere states at 37 vertical levels on a 0.25° latitude-longitude resolution. Hindcasts of 6-hourly weather in 2018 based on ERA5 demonstrate that FengWu performs better than GraphCast in predicting 80\% of the 880 reported predictands, e.g., reducing the root mean square error (RMSE) of 10-day lead global z500 prediction from 733 to 651 $m^{2}/s^2$. In addition, the inference cost of each iteration is merely 600ms on NVIDIA Tesla A100 hardware. The results suggest that FengWu can significantly improve the forecast skill and extend the skillful global medium-range weather forecast out to 10.75 days lead (with ACC of z500 > 0.6) for the first time.

Tianning Zhang, Feng Liu, Yuming Yuan et al.

Existing EEW approaches often treat phase picking, location estimation, and magnitude estimation as separate tasks, lacking a unified framework. Additionally, most deep learning models in seismology rely on full three-component waveforms and are not suitable for real-time streaming data. To address these limitations, we propose a novel unified seismic neural network called Fast Information Streaming Handler (FisH). FisH is designed to process real-time streaming seismic data and generate simultaneous results for phase picking, location estimation, and magnitude estimation in an end-to-end fashion. By integrating these tasks within a single model, FisH simplifies the overall process and leverages the nonlinear relationships between tasks for improved performance. The FisH model utilizes RetNet as its backbone, enabling parallel processing during training and recurrent handling during inference. This capability makes FisH suitable for real-time applications, reducing latency in EEW systems. Extensive experiments conducted on the STEAD benchmark dataset provide strong validation for the effectiveness of our proposed FisH model. The results demonstrate that FisH achieves impressive performance across multiple seismic event detection and characterization tasks. Specifically, it achieves an F1 score of 0.99/0.96. Also, FisH demonstrates precise earthquake location estimation, with location error of only 6.0km, a distance error of 2.6km, and a back-azimuth error of 19°. The model also exhibits accurate earthquake magnitude estimation, with a magnitude error of just 0.14. Additionally, FisH is capable of generating real-time estimations, providing location and magnitude estimations with a location error of 8.06km and a magnitude error of 0.18 within a mere 3 seconds after the P-wave arrives.