Patrick Schäfer

Arik Ermshaus, Patrick Schäfer, Ulf Leser

Ubiquitous sensors today emit high frequency streams of numerical measurements that reflect properties of human, animal, industrial, commercial, and natural processes. Shifts in such processes, e.g. caused by external events or internal state changes, manifest as changes in the recorded signals. The task of streaming time series segmentation (STSS) is to partition the stream into consecutive variable-sized segments that correspond to states of the observed processes or entities. The partition operation itself must in performance be able to cope with the input frequency of the signals. We introduce ClaSS, a novel, efficient, and highly accurate algorithm for STSS. ClaSS assesses the homogeneity of potential partitions using self-supervised time series classification and applies statistical tests to detect significant change points (CPs). In our experimental evaluation using two large benchmarks and six real-world data archives, we found ClaSS to be significantly more precise than eight state-of-the-art competitors. Its space and time complexity is independent of segment sizes and linear only in the sliding window size. We also provide ClaSS as a window operator with an average throughput of 1k data points per second for the Apache Flink streaming engine.

Arik Ermshaus, Patrick Schäfer, Ulf Leser

The ever-growing amount of sensor data from machines, smart devices, and the environment leads to an abundance of high-resolution, unannotated time series (TS). These recordings encode recognizable properties of latent states and transitions from physical phenomena that can be modelled as abstract processes. The unsupervised localization and identification of these states and their transitions is the task of time series state detection (TSSD). Current TSSD algorithms employ classical unsupervised learning techniques, to infer state membership directly from feature space. This limits their predictive power, compared to supervised learning methods, which can exploit additional label information. We introduce CLaP, a new, highly accurate and efficient algorithm for TSSD. It leverages the predictive power of time series classification for TSSD in an unsupervised setting by applying novel self-supervision techniques to detect whether data segments emerge from the same state. To this end, CLaP cross-validates a classifier with segment-labelled subsequences to quantify confusion between segments. It merges labels from segments with high confusion, representing the same latent state, if this leads to an increase in overall classification quality. We conducted an experimental evaluation using 405 TS from five benchmarks and found CLaP to be significantly more precise in detecting states than six state-of-the-art competitors. It achieves the best accuracy-runtime tradeoff and is scalable to large TS. We provide a Python implementation of CLaP, which can be deployed in TS analysis workflows.

Felix Mujkanovic, Vanja Doskoč, Martin Schirneck et al.

Modern time series classifiers display impressive predictive capabilities, yet their decision-making processes mostly remain black boxes to the user. At the same time, model-agnostic explainers, such as the recently proposed SHAP, promise to make the predictions of machine learning models interpretable, provided there are well-designed domain mappings. We bring both worlds together in our timeXplain framework, extending the reach of explainable artificial intelligence to time series classification and value prediction. We present novel domain mappings for the time domain, frequency domain, and time series statistics and analyze their explicative power as well as their limits. We employ a novel evaluation metric to experimentally compare timeXplain to several model-specific explanation approaches for state-of-the-art time series classifiers.

P. Schäfer, U. Leser

Early time series classification (eTSC) is the problem of classifying a time series after as few measurements as possible with the highest possible accuracy. The most critical issue of any eTSC method is to decide when enough data of a time series has been seen to take a decision: Waiting for more data points usually makes the classification problem easier but delays the time in which a classification is made; in contrast, earlier classification has to cope with less input data, often leading to inferior accuracy. The state-of-the-art eTSC methods compute a fixed optimal decision time assuming that every times series has the same defined start time (like turning on a machine). However, in many real-life applications measurements start at arbitrary times (like measuring heartbeats of a patient), implying that the best time for taking a decision varies heavily between time series. We present TEASER, a novel algorithm that models eTSC as a two two-tier classification problem: In the first tier, a classifier periodically assesses the incoming time series to compute class probabilities. However, these class probabilities are only used as output label if a second-tier classifier decides that the predicted label is reliable enough, which can happen after a different number of measurements. In an evaluation using 45 benchmark datasets, TEASER is two to three times earlier at predictions than its competitors while reaching the same or an even higher classification accuracy. We further show TEASER's superior performance using real-life use cases, namely energy monitoring, and gait detection.

Patrick Schäfer, Ulf Leser

Multivariate time series (MTS) arise when multiple interconnected sensors record data over time. Dealing with this high-dimensional data is challenging for every classifier for at least two aspects: First, an MTS is not only characterized by individual feature values, but also by the interplay of features in different dimensions. Second, this typically adds large amounts of irrelevant data and noise. We present our novel MTS classifier WEASEL+MUSE which addresses both challenges. WEASEL+MUSE builds a multivariate feature vector, first using a sliding-window approach applied to each dimension of the MTS, then extracts discrete features per window and dimension. The feature vector is subsequently fed through feature selection, removing non-discriminative features, and analysed by a machine learning classifier. The novelty of WEASEL+MUSE lies in its specific way of extracting and filtering multivariate features from MTS by encoding context information into each feature. Still the resulting feature set is small, yet very discriminative and useful for MTS classification. Based on a popular benchmark of 20 MTS datasets, we found that WEASEL+MUSE is among the most accurate classifiers, when compared to the state of the art. The outstanding robustness of WEASEL+MUSE is further confirmed based on motion gesture recognition data, where it out-of-the-box achieved similar accuracies as domain-specific methods.