Yuchen Fang

Guangyin Jin, Yuxuan Liang, Yuchen Fang et al.

With recent advances in sensing technologies, a myriad of spatio-temporal data has been generated and recorded in smart cities. Forecasting the evolution patterns of spatio-temporal data is an important yet demanding aspect of urban computing, which can enhance intelligent management decisions in various fields, including transportation, environment, climate, public safety, healthcare, and others. Traditional statistical and deep learning methods struggle to capture complex correlations in urban spatio-temporal data. To this end, Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNN) have been proposed, achieving great promise in recent years. STGNNs enable the extraction of complex spatio-temporal dependencies by integrating graph neural networks (GNNs) and various temporal learning methods. In this manuscript, we provide a comprehensive survey on recent progress on STGNN technologies for predictive learning in urban computing. Firstly, we provide a brief introduction to the construction methods of spatio-temporal graph data and the prevalent deep-learning architectures used in STGNNs. We then sort out the primary application domains and specific predictive learning tasks based on existing literature. Afterward, we scrutinize the design of STGNNs and their combination with some advanced technologies in recent years. Finally, we conclude the limitations of existing research and suggest potential directions for future work.

Ziyue Li, Yuchen Fang, You Li et al. · cmu, tsinghua

A timely detection of seizures for newborn infants with electroencephalogram (EEG) has been a common yet life-saving practice in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU). However, it requires great human efforts for real-time monitoring, which calls for automated solutions to neonatal seizure detection. Moreover, the current automated methods focusing on adult epilepsy monitoring often fail due to (i) dynamic seizure onset location in human brains; (ii) different montages on neonates and (iii) huge distribution shift among different subjects. In this paper, we propose a deep learning framework, namely STATENet, to address the exclusive challenges with exquisite designs at the temporal, spatial and model levels. The experiments over the real-world large-scale neonatal EEG dataset illustrate that our framework achieves significantly better seizure detection performance.

Yuchen Fang, Zhenggang Tang, Kan Ren et al.

Order execution is a fundamental task in quantitative finance, aiming at finishing acquisition or liquidation for a number of trading orders of the specific assets. Recent advance in model-free reinforcement learning (RL) provides a data-driven solution to the order execution problem. However, the existing works always optimize execution for an individual order, overlooking the practice that multiple orders are specified to execute simultaneously, resulting in suboptimality and bias. In this paper, we first present a multi-agent RL (MARL) method for multi-order execution considering practical constraints. Specifically, we treat every agent as an individual operator to trade one specific order, while keeping communicating with each other and collaborating for maximizing the overall profits. Nevertheless, the existing MARL algorithms often incorporate communication among agents by exchanging only the information of their partial observations, which is inefficient in complicated financial market. To improve collaboration, we then propose a learnable multi-round communication protocol, for the agents communicating the intended actions with each other and refining accordingly. It is optimized through a novel action value attribution method which is provably consistent with the original learning objective yet more efficient. The experiments on the data from two real-world markets have illustrated superior performance with significantly better collaboration effectiveness achieved by our method.

Santiago Gonzalez, Alireza Amiri Bavandpour, Peter Ye et al.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) saturate elementary benchmarks, the research frontier has shifted from generation to the reliability of automated evaluation. We demonstrate that standard "LLM-as-a-Judge" protocols suffer from a systematic Alignment Gap when applied to upper-undergraduate to early graduate level mathematics. To quantify this, we introduce QEDBench, the first large-scale dual-rubric alignment benchmark to systematically measure alignment with human experts on university-level math proofs by contrasting course-specific rubrics against expert common knowledge criteria. By deploying a dual-evaluation matrix (7 judges x 5 solvers) against 1,000+ hours of human evaluation, we reveal that certain frontier evaluators like Claude Opus 4.5, DeepSeek-V3, Qwen 2.5 Max, and Llama 4 Maverick exhibit significant positive bias (up to +0.18, +0.20, +0.30, +0.36 mean score inflation, respectively). Furthermore, we uncover a critical reasoning gap in the discrete domain: while Gemini 3.0 Pro achieves state-of-the-art performance (0.91 average human evaluation score), other reasoning models like GPT-5 Pro and Claude Sonnet 4.5 see their performance significantly degrade in discrete domains. Specifically, their average human evaluation scores drop to 0.72 and 0.63 in Discrete Math, and to 0.74 and 0.50 in Graph Theory. In addition to these research results, we also release QEDBench as a public benchmark for evaluating and improving AI judges. Our benchmark is publicly published at https://github.com/qqliu/Yale-QEDBench.

Kun Feng, Ziwei Shan, Yuchen Fang et al.

Cross-domain multimodal time series forecasting is a challenging task, requiring models to integrate precise numerical comprehension, cross-domain semantic understanding, and effective multimodal fusion. Existing approaches either build Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) from scratch or leverage pretrained Large Language Models (LLMs). However, TSFMs often overlook semantic understanding and lack the ability to perform future-oriented semantic reasoning, and LLMs struggle with numerical comprehension and accurate quantitative forecasting. To overcome these limitations, we propose KairosAgent, a novel agentic framework for multimodal time series forecasting, including an LLM-based reasoner and a TSFM-based forecaster. KairosAgent unifies textual reasoning and numerical forecasting by dynamically invoking analytical tools to enhance the numerical understanding and semantic reasoning capabilities of LLMs. The reasoning results are subsequently fused into the TSFM pipeline, enabling more accurate and reliable future predictions. To further improve the reasoning, we curate a large-scale corpus of high-quality trajectories, alongside a reinforcement learning from forecasting paradigm with multi-turn refinement and turn-level credit assignment. Experiments demonstrate that KairosAgent achieves superior zero-shot forecasting performance while maximizing the utility of pretrained LLMs and TSFMs, presenting a promising direction for efficient and interpretable time series agents. The project page is at https://foundation-model-research.github.io/KairosAgent .

Zezhi Shao, Fei Wang, Tao Sun et al.

Traffic forecasting, which aims to predict traffic conditions based on historical observations, has been an enduring research topic and is widely recognized as an essential component of intelligent transportation. Recent proposals on Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Networks~(STGNNs) have made significant progress by combining sequential models with graph convolution networks. However, due to high complexity issues, STGNNs only focus on short-term traffic forecasting (e.g., 1-h ahead), while ignoring more practical long-term forecasting. In this paper, we make the first attempt to explore long-term traffic forecasting (e.g., 1-day ahead). To this end, we first reveal its unique challenges in exploiting multi-scale representations. Then, we propose a novel Hierarchical U-Net TransFormer~(HUTFormer) to address the issues of long-term traffic forecasting. HUTFormer consists of a hierarchical encoder and decoder to jointly generate and utilize multi-scale representations of traffic data. Specifically, for the encoder, we {\color{black}propose} window self-attention and segment merging to extract multi-scale representations from long-term traffic data. For the decoder, we design a cross-scale attention mechanism to effectively incorporate multi-scale representations. In addition, HUTFormer employs an efficient input embedding strategy to address the complexity issues. Extensive experiments on four traffic datasets show that the proposed HUTFormer significantly outperforms state-of-the-art traffic forecasting and long time series forecasting baselines.

Lingyue Fu, Huacan Chai, Shuang Luo et al.

With the emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs), there has been a significant improvement in the programming capabilities of models, attracting growing attention from researchers. Evaluating the programming capabilities of LLMs is crucial as it reflects the multifaceted abilities of LLMs, and it has numerous downstream applications. In this paper, we propose CodeApex, a bilingual benchmark dataset focusing on the programming comprehension, code generation, and code correction abilities of LLMs. Programming comprehension task tests LLMs on multiple-choice exam questions covering conceptual understanding, commonsense reasoning, and multi-hop reasoning. The code generation task evaluates LLMs through completing C++ functions based on provided descriptions and prototypes. The code correction task asks LLMs to fix real-world erroneous code segments with different error messages. We evaluate 12 widely used LLMs, including both general-purpose and specialized models. GPT-4 exhibits the best programming capabilities, achieving approximate accuracy of 69%, 54%, and 66% on the three tasks, respectively. Compared to human performance, there is still significant room for improvement in LLM programming. We hope that CodeApex can serve as a reference for evaluating the coding capabilities of LLMs, further promoting their development and growth.

Roger Hsiao, Yuchen Fang, Xiangru Huang et al.

We propose 3DGS$^2$-TR,a second-order optimizer for accelerating the scene training problem in 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS). Unlike existing second-order approaches that rely on explicit or dense curvature representations, such as 3DGS-LM (Höllein et al., 2025) or 3DGS2 (Lan et al., 2025), our method approximates curvature using only the diagonal of the Hessian matrix, efficiently via Hutchinson's method. Our approach is fully matrix-free and has the same complexity as ADAM (Kingma, 2024), $O(n)$ in both computation and memory costs. To ensure stable optimization in the presence of strong nonlinearity in the 3DGS rasterization process, we introduce a parameter-wise trust-region technique based on the squared Hellinger distance, regularizing updates to Gaussian parameters. Under identical parameter initialization and without densification, 3DGS$^2$-TR is able to achieve better reconstruction quality on standard datasets, using 50% fewer training iterations compared to ADAM, while incurring less than 1GB of peak GPU memory overhead (17% more than ADAM and 85% less than 3DGS-LM), enabling scalability to very large scenes and potentially to distributed training settings.

Juyuan Wang, Chenxing Wang, Yuchen Fang et al.

Decoding-free reranking methods that read relevance signals directly from LLM attention weights offer significant latency advantages over autoregressive approaches, yet suffer from attention score homogenization: middle-context documents receive near-identical scores, destroying the fine-grained distinctions required for ranking. We propose HeadRank, a framework that lifts preference optimization from discrete token space into the continuous attention domain through entropy-regularized head selection, hard adjacent-level preference pairs, and a distribution regularizer that jointly sharpen discriminability in the homogenized middle zone. Depth truncation at the deepest selected layer further reduces inference to $\mathcal{O}(1)$ forward passes. Across 14 benchmarks on three Qwen3 scales (0.6B--4B) using only 211 training queries, HeadRank consistently outperforms generative and decoding-free baselines with 100\% formatting success. At 4B, 57.4\% of relevant middle-zone documents reach the top quartile versus 14.2\% for irrelevant ones -- a 43-percentage-point selectivity gap that demonstrates the effectiveness of attention-space preference alignment for listwise reranking.

Yuchen Fang, Jihun Kim, Sen Na et al.

In this paper, we propose a trust-region interior-point stochastic sequential quadratic programming (TR-IP-SSQP) method for solving optimization problems with a stochastic objective and deterministic nonlinear equality and inequality constraints. In this setting, exact evaluations of the objective function and its gradient are unavailable, but their stochastic estimates can be constructed. In particular, at each iteration our method builds stochastic oracles, which estimate the objective value and gradient to satisfy proper adaptive accuracy conditions with a fixed probability. To handle inequality constraints, we adopt an interior-point method (IPM), in which the barrier parameter follows a prescribed decaying sequence. Under standard assumptions, we establish global almost-sure convergence of the proposed method to first-order stationary points. We implement the method on a subset of problems from the CUTEst test set, as well as on logistic regression problems, to demonstrate its practical performance.

Yuchen Fang, James Demmel, Javad Lavaei

We develop a worst-case complexity theory for stochastically preconditioned stochastic gradient descent (SPSGD) and its accelerated variants under heavy-tailed noise, a setting that encompasses widely used adaptive methods such as Adam, RMSProp, and Shampoo. We assume the stochastic gradient noise has a finite $p$-th moment for some $p \in (1,2]$, and measure convergence after $T$ iterations. While clipping and normalization are parallel tools for stabilizing training of SGD under heavy-tailed noise, there is a fundamental separation in their worst-case properties in stochastically preconditioned settings. We demonstrate that normalization guarantees convergence to a first-order stationary point at rate $\mathcal{O}(T^{-\frac{p-1}{3p-2}})$ when problem parameters are known, and $\mathcal{O}(T^{-\frac{p-1}{2p}})$ when problem parameters are unknown, matching the optimal rates for normalized SGD, respectively. In contrast, we prove that clipping may fail to converge in the worst case due to the statistical dependence between the stochastic preconditioner and the gradient estimates. To enable the analysis, we develop a novel vector-valued Burkholder-type inequality that may be of independent interest. These results provide a theoretical explanation for the empirical preference for normalization over clipping in large-scale model training.

Yuchen Fang, Sen Na, Michael W. Mahoney et al.

In this work, we consider solving optimization problems with a stochastic objective and deterministic equality constraints. We propose a Trust-Region Sequential Quadratic Programming method to find both first- and second-order stationary points. Our method utilizes a random model to represent the objective function, which is constructed from stochastic observations of the objective and is designed to satisfy proper adaptive accuracy conditions with a high but fixed probability. To converge to first-order stationary points, our method computes a gradient step in each iteration defined by minimizing a quadratic approximation of the objective subject to a (relaxed) linear approximation of the problem constraints and a trust-region constraint. To converge to second-order stationary points, our method additionally computes an eigen step to explore the negative curvature of the reduced Hessian matrix, as well as a second-order correction step to address the potential Maratos effect, which arises due to the nonlinearity of the problem constraints. Such an effect may impede the method from moving away from saddle points. Both gradient and eigen step computations leverage a novel parameter-free decomposition of the step and the trust-region radius, accounting for the proportions among the feasibility residual, optimality residual, and negative curvature. We establish global almost sure first- and second-order convergence guarantees for our method, and present computational results on CUTEst problems, regression problems, and saddle-point problems to demonstrate its superiority over existing line-search-based stochastic methods.

Yuchen Fang, Xinshou Zheng, Javad Lavaei

We propose a stochastic trust-region method for unconstrained nonconvex optimization that incorporates stochastic variance-reduced gradients (SVRG) to accelerate convergence. Unlike classical trust-region methods, the proposed algorithm relies solely on stochastic gradient information and does not require function value evaluations. The trust-region radius is adaptively adjusted based on a radius-control parameter and the stochastic gradient estimate. Under mild assumptions, we establish that the algorithm converges in expectation to a first-order stationary point. Moreover, the method achieves iteration and sample complexity bounds that match those of SVRG-based first-order methods, while allowing stochastic and potentially gradient-dependent second-order information. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate that incorporating SVRG accelerates convergence, and that the use of trust-region methods and Hessian information further improves performance. We also highlight the impact of batch size and inner-loop length on efficiency, and show that the proposed method outperforms SGD and Adam on several machine learning tasks.

Yuqi Chen, Kan Ren, Yansen Wang et al. · cmu, tsinghua

Modeling continuous-time dynamics on irregular time series is critical to account for data evolution and correlations that occur continuously. Traditional methods including recurrent neural networks or Transformer models leverage inductive bias via powerful neural architectures to capture complex patterns. However, due to their discrete characteristic, they have limitations in generalizing to continuous-time data paradigms. Though neural ordinary differential equations (Neural ODEs) and their variants have shown promising results in dealing with irregular time series, they often fail to capture the intricate correlations within these sequences. It is challenging yet demanding to concurrently model the relationship between input data points and capture the dynamic changes of the continuous-time system. To tackle this problem, we propose ContiFormer that extends the relation modeling of vanilla Transformer to the continuous-time domain, which explicitly incorporates the modeling abilities of continuous dynamics of Neural ODEs with the attention mechanism of Transformers. We mathematically characterize the expressive power of ContiFormer and illustrate that, by curated designs of function hypothesis, many Transformer variants specialized in irregular time series modeling can be covered as a special case of ContiFormer. A wide range of experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets have illustrated the superior modeling capacities and prediction performance of ContiFormer on irregular time series data. The project link is https://seqml.github.io/contiformer/.

Ziyu Zhou, Yuchen Fang, Weilin Ruan et al.

Telemetry streams from large-scale Internet-connected systems (e.g., IoT deployments and online platforms) naturally form an irregular multivariate time series (IMTS) whose accurate forecasting is operationally vital. A closer examination reveals a defining Sparsity-Event Duality (SED) property of IMTS, i.e., long stretches with sparse or no observations are punctuated by short, dense bursts where most semantic events (observations) occur. However, existing Graph- and Transformer-based forecasters ignore SED: pre-alignment to uniform grids with heavy padding violates sparsity by inflating sequences and forcing computation at non-informative steps, while relational recasting weakens event semantics by disrupting local temporal continuity. These limitations motivate a more faithful and natural modeling paradigm for IMTS that aligns with its SED property. We find that Spiking Neural Networks meet this requirement, as they communicate via sparse binary spikes and update in an event-driven manner, aligning naturally with the SED nature of IMTS. Therefore, we present SEDformer, an SED-enhanced Spiking Transformer for telemetry IMTS forecasting that couples: (1) a SED-based Spike Encoder converts raw observations into event synchronous spikes using an Event-Aligned LIF neuron, (2) an Event-Preserving Temporal Downsampling module compresses long gaps while retaining salient firings and (3) a stack of SED-based Spike Transformer blocks enable intra-series dependency modeling with a membrane-based linear attention driven by EA-LIF spiking features. Experiments on public telemetry IMTS datasets show that SEDformer attains state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy while reducing energy and memory usage, providing a natural and efficient path for modeling IMTS.

Yuchen Fang, Yuxuan Liang, Bo Hui et al.

Road traffic forecasting is crucial in real-world intelligent transportation scenarios like traffic dispatching and path planning in city management and personal traveling. Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) stand out as the mainstream solution in this task. Nevertheless, the quadratic complexity of remarkable dynamic spatial modeling-based STGNNs has become the bottleneck over large-scale traffic data. From the spatial data management perspective, we present a novel Transformer framework called PatchSTG to efficiently and dynamically model spatial dependencies for large-scale traffic forecasting with interpretability and fidelity. Specifically, we design a novel irregular spatial patching to reduce the number of points involved in the dynamic calculation of Transformer. The irregular spatial patching first utilizes the leaf K-dimensional tree (KDTree) to recursively partition irregularly distributed traffic points into leaf nodes with a small capacity, and then merges leaf nodes belonging to the same subtree into occupancy-equaled and non-overlapped patches through padding and backtracking. Based on the patched data, depth and breadth attention are used interchangeably in the encoder to dynamically learn local and global spatial knowledge from points in a patch and points with the same index of patches. Experimental results on four real world large-scale traffic datasets show that our PatchSTG achieves train speed and memory utilization improvements up to $10\times$ and $4\times$ with the state-of-the-art performance.

Xinke Jiang, Rihong Qiu, Yongxin Xu et al.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have become essential in interpreting relational data across various domains, yet, they often struggle to generalize to unseen graph data that differs markedly from training instances. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework called General Retrieval-Augmented Graph Learning (RAGraph), which brings external graph data into the general graph foundation model to improve model generalization on unseen scenarios. On the top of our framework is a toy graph vector library that we established, which captures key attributes, such as features and task-specific label information. During inference, the RAGraph adeptly retrieves similar toy graphs based on key similarities in downstream tasks, integrating the retrieved data to enrich the learning context via the message-passing prompting mechanism. Our extensive experimental evaluations demonstrate that RAGraph significantly outperforms state-of-the-art graph learning methods in multiple tasks such as node classification, link prediction, and graph classification across both dynamic and static datasets. Furthermore, extensive testing confirms that RAGraph consistently maintains high performance without the need for task-specific fine-tuning, highlighting its adaptability, robustness, and broad applicability.

Yuchen Fang, Hao Miao, Yuxuan Liang et al.

Spatio-temporal deep learning models aims to utilize useful patterns in such data to support tasks like prediction. However, previous deep learning models designed for specific tasks typically require separate training for each use case, leading to increased computational and storage costs. To address this issue, spatio-temporal foundation models have emerged, offering a unified framework capable of solving multiple spatio-temporal tasks. These foundation models achieve remarkable success by learning general knowledge with spatio-temporal data or transferring the general capabilities of pre-trained language models. While previous surveys have explored spatio-temporal data and methodologies separately, they have ignored a comprehensive examination of how foundation models are designed, selected, pre-trained, and adapted. As a result, the overall pipeline for spatio-temporal foundation models remains unclear. To bridge this gap, we innovatively provide an up-to-date review of previous spatio-temporal foundation models from the pipeline perspective. The pipeline begins with an introduction to different types of spatio-temporal data, followed by details of data preprocessing and embedding techniques. The pipeline then presents a novel data property taxonomy to divide existing methods according to data sources and dependencies, providing efficient and effective model design and selection for researchers. On this basis, we further illustrate the training objectives of primitive models, as well as the adaptation techniques of transferred models. Overall, our survey provides a clear and structured pipeline to understand the connection between core elements of spatio-temporal foundation models while guiding researchers to get started quickly. Additionally, we introduce emerging opportunities such as multi-objective training in the field of spatio-temporal foundation models.

Yuxuan Wang, Haixu Wu, Yuezhou Ma et al.

Deep time series forecasting has emerged as a booming direction in recent years. Despite the exponential growth of community interests, researchers are sometimes confused about the direction of their efforts due to minor improvements on standard benchmarks. In this paper, we notice that, unlike image recognition, whose well-acknowledged and realizable goal is 100% accuracy, time series forecasting inherently faces a non-zero error lower bound due to its partially observable and uncertain nature. To pinpoint the research objective and release researchers from saturated tasks, this paper focuses on a fundamental question: how to estimate the performance upper bound of deep time series forecasting? Going beyond classical series-wise predictability metrics, e.g., ADF test, we realize that the forecasting performance is highly related to window-wise properties because of the sequence-to-sequence forecasting paradigm of deep time series models. Based on rigorous statistical tests of over 2,800 newly trained deep forecasters, we discover a significant exponential relationship between the minimum forecasting error of deep models and the complexity of window-wise series patterns, which is termed the accuracy law. The proposed accuracy law successfully guides us to identify saturated tasks from widely used benchmarks and derives an effective training strategy for large time series models, offering valuable insights for future research.

Ling Team, Bin Han, Caizhi Tang et al.

In this technical report, we present the Ring-linear model series, specifically including Ring-mini-linear-2.0 and Ring-flash-linear-2.0. Ring-mini-linear-2.0 comprises 16B parameters and 957M activations, while Ring-flash-linear-2.0 contains 104B parameters and 6.1B activations. Both models adopt a hybrid architecture that effectively integrates linear attention and softmax attention, significantly reducing I/O and computational overhead in long-context inference scenarios. Compared to a 32 billion parameter dense model, this series reduces inference cost to 1/10, and compared to the original Ring series, the cost is also reduced by over 50%. Furthermore, through systematic exploration of the ratio between different attention mechanisms in the hybrid architecture, we have identified the currently optimal model structure. Additionally, by leveraging our self-developed high-performance FP8 operator library-linghe, overall training efficiency has been improved by 50%. Benefiting from the high alignment between the training and inference engine operators, the models can undergo long-term, stable, and highly efficient optimization during the reinforcement learning phase, consistently maintaining SOTA performance across multiple challenging complex reasoning benchmarks.

Yinbo Sun, Yuchen Fang, Zhibo Zhu et al.

The rapid advancement of time series foundation models (TSFMs) has been propelled by migrating architectures from language models. While existing TSFMs demonstrate impressive performance, their direct adoption of cross-domain architectures constrains effective capture of multiscale temporal dependencies inherent to time series data. This limitation becomes particularly pronounced during zero-shot transfer across datasets with divergent underlying patterns and sampling strategies. To address these challenges, we propose Hierarchical Interleaved Block Attention (HIBA) which employs hierarchical inter- and intra-block sparse attention to effectively capture multi-scale dependencies. Intra-block attention facilitates local information exchange, and inter-block attention operates across blocks to capture global temporal pattern interaction and dynamic evolution. Leveraging the HIBA architecture, we introduce Xihe, a scalable TSFM family spanning from an ultra-efficient 9.5M parameter configuration to high-capacity 1.5B variant. Evaluated on the comprehensive GIFT-Eval benchmark, our most compact Xihe-tiny model (9.5M) surpasses the majority of contemporary TSFMs, demonstrating remarkable parameter efficiency. More impressively, Xihe-max (1.5B) establishes new state-of-the-art zero-shot performance, surpassing previous best results by a substantial margin. This consistent performance excellence across the entire parameter spectrum provides compelling evidence for the exceptional generalization capabilities and architectural superiority of HIBA.

Kun Feng, Shaocheng Lan, Yuchen Fang et al.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have emerged as a powerful paradigm for time series analysis, driven by large-scale pretraining on diverse data corpora. However, time series inherently exhibit heterogeneous information density over time, influenced by system states and signal complexity, presenting significant modeling challenges especially in a zero-shot scenario. Current TSFMs rely on non-adaptive processing pipelines that fail to capture this dynamic nature. For example, common tokenization strategies such as fixed-size patching enforce rigid observational granularity, limiting their ability to adapt to varying information densities. Similarly, conventional positional encodings impose a uniform temporal scale, making it difficult to model diverse periodicities and trends across series. To overcome these limitations, we propose Kairos, a flexible TSFM framework that integrates a dynamic patching tokenizer and an instance-adaptive positional embedding. Kairos adaptively selects tokenization granularity and tailors positional encodings to the unique characteristics of each time series instance. Trained on a large-scale Predictability-Stratified Time Series (PreSTS) corpus comprising over 300 billion time points and adopting a multi-patch prediction strategy in the inference stage, Kairos achieves superior performance with much fewer parameters on two common zero-shot benchmarks, GIFT-Eval and the Time-Series-Library benchmark, consistently outperforming established methods across diverse tasks. The project page is at https://foundation-model-research.github.io/Kairos .

Haoyu Zhang, Wentao Zhang, Hao Miao et al.

Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) have emerged as a powerful tool for modeling dynamic graph-structured data across diverse domains. However, they often fail to generalize in Spatio-Temporal Out-of-Distribution (STOOD) scenarios, where both temporal dynamics and spatial structures evolve beyond the training distribution. To address this problem, we propose an innovative Spatio-Temporal Retrieval-Augmented Pattern Learning framework,STRAP, which enhances model generalization by integrating retrieval-augmented learning into the STGNN continue learning pipeline. The core of STRAP is a compact and expressive pattern library that stores representative spatio-temporal patterns enriched with historical, structural, and semantic information, which is obtained and optimized during the training phase. During inference, STRAP retrieves relevant patterns from this library based on similarity to the current input and injects them into the model via a plug-and-play prompting mechanism. This not only strengthens spatio-temporal representations but also mitigates catastrophic forgetting. Moreover, STRAP introduces a knowledge-balancing objective to harmonize new information with retrieved knowledge. Extensive experiments across multiple real-world streaming graph datasets show that STRAP consistently outperforms state-of-the-art STGNN baselines on STOOD tasks, demonstrating its robustness, adaptability, and strong generalization capability without task-specific fine-tuning.

Yuchen Fang, Javad Lavaei, Sen Na

In this paper, we consider nonlinear optimization problems with a stochastic objective and deterministic equality constraints. We propose a Trust-Region Stochastic Sequential Quadratic Programming (TR-SSQP) method and establish its high-probability iteration complexity bounds for identifying first- and second-order $ε$-stationary points. In our algorithm, we assume that exact objective values, gradients, and Hessians are not directly accessible but can be estimated via zeroth-, first-, and second-order probabilistic oracles. Compared to existing complexity studies of SSQP methods that rely on a zeroth-order oracle with sub-exponential tail noise (i.e., light-tailed) and focus mostly on first-order stationarity, our analysis accommodates irreducible and heavy-tailed noise in the zeroth-order oracle and significantly extends the analysis to second-order stationarity. We show that under heavy-tailed noise conditions, our SSQP method achieves the same high-probability first-order iteration complexity bounds as in the light-tailed noise setting, while further exhibiting promising second-order iteration complexity bounds. Specifically, the method identifies a first-order $ε$-stationary point in $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-2})$ iterations and a second-order $ε$-stationary point in $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-3})$ iterations with high probability, provided that $ε$ is lower bounded by a constant determined by the irreducible noise level in estimation. We validate our theoretical findings and evaluate the practical performance of our method on CUTEst benchmark test set.

Jiayuan Luo, Wentao Zhang, Yuchen Fang et al.

Time Series Supplier Allocation (TSSA) poses a complex NP-hard challenge, aimed at refining future order dispatching strategies to satisfy order demands with maximum supply efficiency fully. Traditionally derived from financial portfolio management, the Black-Litterman (BL) model offers a new perspective for the TSSA scenario by balancing expected returns against insufficient supply risks. However, its application within TSSA is constrained by the reliance on manually constructed perspective matrices and spatio-temporal market dynamics, coupled with the absence of supervisory signals and data unreliability inherent to supplier information. To solve these limitations, we introduce the pioneering Deep Black-Litterman Model (DBLM), which innovatively adapts the BL model from financial roots to supply chain context. Leveraging the Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNS), DBLM automatically generates future perspective matrices for TSSA, by integrating spatio-temporal dependency. Moreover, a novel Spearman rank correlation distinctively supervises our approach to address the lack of supervisory signals, specifically designed to navigate through the complexities of supplier risks and interactions. This is further enhanced by a masking mechanism aimed at counteracting the biases from unreliable data, thereby improving the model's precision and reliability. Extensive experimentation on two datasets unequivocally demonstrates DBLM's enhanced performance in TSSA, setting new standards for the field. Our findings and methodology are made available for community access and further development.

Ruizhe Zhang, Xinke Jiang, Yuchen Fang et al.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown considerable effectiveness in a variety of graph learning tasks, particularly those based on the message-passing approach in recent years. However, their performance is often constrained by a limited receptive field, a challenge that becomes more acute in the presence of sparse graphs. In light of the power series, which possesses infinite expansion capabilities, we propose a novel Graph Power Filter Neural Network (GPFN) that enhances node classification by employing a power series graph filter to augment the receptive field. Concretely, our GPFN designs a new way to build a graph filter with an infinite receptive field based on the convergence power series, which can be analyzed in the spectral and spatial domains. Besides, we theoretically prove that our GPFN is a general framework that can integrate any power series and capture long-range dependencies. Finally, experimental results on three datasets demonstrate the superiority of our GPFN over state-of-the-art baselines.

Chenxing Wang, Fang Zhao, Haichao Zhang et al.

Travel Time Estimation (TTE) is indispensable in intelligent transportation system (ITS). It is significant to achieve the fine-grained Trajectory-based Travel Time Estimation (TTTE) for multi-city scenarios, namely to accurately estimate travel time of the given trajectory for multiple city scenarios. However, it faces great challenges due to complex factors including dynamic temporal dependencies and fine-grained spatial dependencies. To tackle these challenges, we propose a meta learning based framework, MetaTTE, to continuously provide accurate travel time estimation over time by leveraging well-designed deep neural network model called DED, which consists of Data preprocessing module and Encoder-Decoder network module. By introducing meta learning techniques, the generalization ability of MetaTTE is enhanced using small amount of examples, which opens up new opportunities to increase the potential of achieving consistent performance on TTTE when traffic conditions and road networks change over time in the future. The DED model adopts an encoder-decoder network to capture fine-grained spatial and temporal representations. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets are conducted to confirm that our MetaTTE outperforms six state-of-art baselines, and improve 29.35% and 25.93% accuracy than the best baseline on Chengdu and Porto datasets, respectively.

Yuchen Fang, Yanjun Qin, Haiyong Luo et al.

Traffic forecasting is crucial for public safety and resource optimization, yet is very challenging due to three aspects: i) current existing works mostly exploit intricate temporal patterns (e.g., the short-term thunderstorm and long-term daily trends) within a single method, which fail to accurately capture spatio-temporal dependencies under different schemas; ii) the under-exploration of the graph positional encoding limit the extraction of spatial information in the commonly used full graph attention network; iii) the quadratic complexity of the full graph attention introduces heavy computational needs. To achieve the effective traffic flow forecasting, we propose an efficient spectral graph attention network with disentangled traffic sequences. Specifically, the discrete wavelet transform is leveraged to obtain the low- and high-frequency components of traffic sequences, and a dual-channel encoder is elaborately designed to accurately capture the spatio-temporal dependencies under long- and short-term schemas of the low- and high-frequency components. Moreover, a novel wavelet-based graph positional encoding and a query sampling strategy are introduced in our spectral graph attention to effectively guide message passing and efficiently calculate the attention. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets show the superiority of our model, i.e., the higher traffic forecasting precision with lower computational cost.

Yuchen Fang, Yanjun Qin, Haiyong Luo et al.

Traffic forecasting is important in intelligent transportation systems of webs and beneficial to traffic safety, yet is very challenging because of the complex and dynamic spatio-temporal dependencies in real-world traffic systems. Prior methods use the pre-defined or learnable static graph to extract spatial correlations. However, the static graph-based methods fail to mine the evolution of the traffic network. Researchers subsequently generate the dynamic graph for each time slice to reflect the changes of spatial correlations, but they follow the paradigm of independently modeling spatio-temporal dependencies, ignoring the cross-time spatial influence. In this paper, we propose a novel cross-time dynamic graph-based deep learning model, named CDGNet, for traffic forecasting. The model is able to effectively capture the cross-time spatial dependence between each time slice and its historical time slices by utilizing the cross-time dynamic graph. Meanwhile, we design a gating mechanism to sparse the cross-time dynamic graph, which conforms to the sparse spatial correlations in the real world. Besides, we propose a novel encoder-decoder architecture to incorporate the cross-time dynamic graph-based GCN for multi-step traffic forecasting. Experimental results on three real-world public traffic datasets demonstrate that CDGNet outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines. We additionally provide a qualitative study to analyze the effectiveness of our architecture.

Yanjun Qin, Yuchen Fang, Haiyong Luo et al.

Traffic forecasting is a problem of intelligent transportation systems (ITS) and crucial for individuals and public agencies. Therefore, researches pay great attention to deal with the complex spatio-temporal dependencies of traffic system for accurate forecasting. However, there are two challenges: 1) Most traffic forecasting studies mainly focus on modeling correlations of neighboring sensors and ignore correlations of remote sensors, e.g., business districts with similar spatio-temporal patterns; 2) Prior methods which use static adjacency matrix in graph convolutional networks (GCNs) are not enough to reflect the dynamic spatial dependence in traffic system. Moreover, fine-grained methods which use self-attention to model dynamic correlations of all sensors ignore hierarchical information in road networks and have quadratic computational complexity. In this paper, we propose a novel dynamic multi-graph convolution recurrent network (DMGCRN) to tackle above issues, which can model the spatial correlations of distance, the spatial correlations of structure, and the temporal correlations simultaneously. We not only use the distance-based graph to capture spatial information from nodes are close in distance but also construct a novel latent graph which encoded the structure correlations among roads to capture spatial information from nodes are similar in structure. Furthermore, we divide the neighbors of each sensor into coarse-grained regions, and dynamically assign different weights to each region at different times. Meanwhile, we integrate the dynamic multi-graph convolution network into the gated recurrent unit (GRU) to capture temporal dependence. Extensive experiments on three real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that our proposed algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

Yuchen Fang, Yanjun Qin, Haiyong Luo et al.

Traffic prediction has gradually attracted the attention of researchers because of the increase in traffic big data. Therefore, how to mine the complex spatio-temporal correlations in traffic data to predict traffic conditions more accurately become a difficult problem. Previous works combined graph convolution networks (GCNs) and self-attention mechanism with deep time series models (e.g. recurrent neural networks) to capture the spatio-temporal correlations separately, ignoring the relationships across time and space. Besides, GCNs are limited by over-smoothing issue and self-attention is limited by quadratic problem, result in GCNs lack global representation capabilities, and self-attention inefficiently capture the global spatial dependence. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning model for traffic forecasting, named Multi-Context Aware Spatio-Temporal Joint Linear Attention (STJLA), which applies linear attention to the spatio-temporal joint graph to capture global dependence between all spatio-temporal nodes efficiently. More specifically, STJLA utilizes static structural context and dynamic semantic context to improve model performance. The static structure context based on node2vec and one-hot encoding enriches the spatio-temporal position information. Furthermore, the multi-head diffusion convolution network based dynamic spatial context enhances the local spatial perception ability, and the GRU based dynamic temporal context stabilizes sequence position information of the linear attention, respectively. Experiments on two real-world traffic datasets, England and PEMSD7, demonstrate that our STJLA can achieve up to 9.83% and 3.08% accuracy improvement in MAE measure over state-of-the-art baselines.

Yuchen Fang, Kan Ren, Weiqing Liu et al.

As a fundamental problem in algorithmic trading, order execution aims at fulfilling a specific trading order, either liquidation or acquirement, for a given instrument. Towards effective execution strategy, recent years have witnessed the shift from the analytical view with model-based market assumptions to model-free perspective, i.e., reinforcement learning, due to its nature of sequential decision optimization. However, the noisy and yet imperfect market information that can be leveraged by the policy has made it quite challenging to build up sample efficient reinforcement learning methods to achieve effective order execution. In this paper, we propose a novel universal trading policy optimization framework to bridge the gap between the noisy yet imperfect market states and the optimal action sequences for order execution. Particularly, this framework leverages a policy distillation method that can better guide the learning of the common policy towards practically optimal execution by an oracle teacher with perfect information to approximate the optimal trading strategy. The extensive experiments have shown significant improvements of our method over various strong baselines, with reasonable trading actions.

Jiarui Jin, Kounianhua Du, Weinan Zhang et al.

Heterogeneous information network (HIN) has been widely used to characterize entities of various types and their complex relations. Recent attempts either rely on explicit path reachability to leverage path-based semantic relatedness or graph neighborhood to learn heterogeneous network representations before predictions. These weakly coupled manners overlook the rich interactions among neighbor nodes, which introduces an early summarization issue. In this paper, we propose GraphHINGE (Heterogeneous INteract and aggreGatE), which captures and aggregates the interactive patterns between each pair of nodes through their structured neighborhoods. Specifically, we first introduce Neighborhood-based Interaction (NI) module to model the interactive patterns under the same metapaths, and then extend it to Cross Neighborhood-based Interaction (CNI) module to deal with different metapaths. Next, in order to address the complexity issue on large-scale networks, we formulate the interaction modules via a convolutional framework and learn the parameters efficiently with fast Fourier transform. Furthermore, we design a novel neighborhood-based selection (NS) mechanism, a sampling strategy, to filter high-order neighborhood information based on their low-order performance. The extensive experiments on six different types of heterogeneous graphs demonstrate the performance gains by comparing with state-of-the-arts in both click-through rate prediction and top-N recommendation tasks.

Jiarui Jin, Jiarui Qin, Yuchen Fang et al.

There is an influx of heterogeneous information network (HIN) based recommender systems in recent years since HIN is capable of characterizing complex graphs and contains rich semantics. Although the existing approaches have achieved performance improvement, while practical, they still face the following problems. On one hand, most existing HIN-based methods rely on explicit path reachability to leverage path-based semantic relatedness between users and items, e.g., metapath-based similarities. These methods are hard to use and integrate since path connections are sparse or noisy, and are often of different lengths. On the other hand, other graph-based methods aim to learn effective heterogeneous network representations by compressing node together with its neighborhood information into single embedding before prediction. This weakly coupled manner in modeling overlooks the rich interactions among nodes, which introduces an early summarization issue. In this paper, we propose an end-to-end Neighborhood-based Interaction Model for Recommendation (NIRec) to address the above problems. Specifically, we first analyze the significance of learning interactions in HINs and then propose a novel formulation to capture the interactive patterns between each pair of nodes through their metapath-guided neighborhoods. Then, to explore complex interactions between metapaths and deal with the learning complexity on large-scale networks, we formulate interaction in a convolutional way and learn efficiently with fast Fourier transform. The extensive experiments on four different types of heterogeneous graphs demonstrate the performance gains of NIRec comparing with state-of-the-arts. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work providing an efficient neighborhood-based interaction model in the HIN-based recommendations.

Jiarui Qin, Weinan Zhang, Xin Wu et al.

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction plays a key role in modern online personalization services. In practice, it is necessary to capture user's drifting interests by modeling sequential user behaviors to build an accurate CTR prediction model. However, as the users accumulate more and more behavioral data on the platforms, it becomes non-trivial for the sequential models to make use of the whole behavior history of each user. First, directly feeding the long behavior sequence will make online inference time and system load infeasible. Second, there is much noise in such long histories to fail the sequential model learning. The current industrial solutions mainly truncate the sequences and just feed recent behaviors to the prediction model, which leads to a problem that sequential patterns such as periodicity or long-term dependency are not embedded in the recent several behaviors but in far back history. To tackle these issues, in this paper we consider it from the data perspective instead of just designing more sophisticated yet complicated models and propose User Behavior Retrieval for CTR prediction (UBR4CTR) framework. In UBR4CTR, the most relevant and appropriate user behaviors will be firstly retrieved from the entire user history sequence using a learnable search method. These retrieved behaviors are then fed into a deep model to make the final prediction instead of simply using the most recent ones. It is highly feasible to deploy UBR4CTR into industrial model pipeline with low cost. Experiments on three real-world large-scale datasets demonstrate the superiority and efficacy of our proposed framework and models.

Jiarui Jin, Yuchen Fang, Weinan Zhang et al.

Position bias is a critical problem in information retrieval when dealing with implicit yet biased user feedback data. Unbiased ranking methods typically rely on causality models and debias the user feedback through inverse propensity weighting. While practical, these methods still suffer from two major problems. First, when inferring a user click, the impact of the contextual information, such as documents that have been examined, is often ignored. Second, only the position bias is considered but other issues resulted from user browsing behaviors are overlooked. In this paper, we propose an end-to-end Deep Recurrent Survival Ranking (DRSR), a unified framework to jointly model user's various behaviors, to (i) consider the rich contextual information in the ranking list; and (ii) address the hidden issues underlying user behaviors, i.e., to mine observe pattern in queries without any click (non-click queries), and to model tracking logs which cannot truly reflect the user browsing intents (untrusted observation). Specifically, we adopt a recurrent neural network to model the contextual information and estimates the conditional likelihood of user feedback at each position. We then incorporate survival analysis techniques with the probability chain rule to mathematically recover the unbiased joint probability of one user's various behaviors. DRSR can be easily incorporated with both point-wise and pair-wise learning objectives. The extensive experiments over two large-scale industrial datasets demonstrate the significant performance gains of our model comparing with the state-of-the-arts.

Jiarui Qin, Kan Ren, Yuchen Fang et al.

Sequential recommendation task aims to predict user preference over items in the future given user historical behaviors. The order of user behaviors implies that there are resourceful sequential patterns embedded in the behavior history which reveal the underlying dynamics of user interests. Various sequential recommendation methods are proposed to model the dynamic user behaviors. However, most of the models only consider the user's own behaviors and dynamics, while ignoring the collaborative relations among users and items, i.e., similar tastes of users or analogous properties of items. Without modeling collaborative relations, those methods suffer from the lack of recommendation diversity and thus may have worse performance. Worse still, most existing methods only consider the user-side sequence and ignore the temporal dynamics on the item side. To tackle the problems of the current sequential recommendation models, we propose Sequential Collaborative Recommender (SCoRe) which effectively mines high-order collaborative information using cross-neighbor relation modeling and, additionally utilizes both user-side and item-side historical sequences to better capture user and item dynamics. Experiments on three real-world yet large-scale datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model over strong baselines.

Kan Ren, Jiarui Qin, Yuchen Fang et al.

User response prediction, which models the user preference w.r.t. the presented items, plays a key role in online services. With two-decade rapid development, nowadays the cumulated user behavior sequences on mature Internet service platforms have become extremely long since the user's first registration. Each user not only has intrinsic tastes, but also keeps changing her personal interests during lifetime. Hence, it is challenging to handle such lifelong sequential modeling for each individual user. Existing methodologies for sequential modeling are only capable of dealing with relatively recent user behaviors, which leaves huge space for modeling long-term especially lifelong sequential patterns to facilitate user modeling. Moreover, one user's behavior may be accounted for various previous behaviors within her whole online activity history, i.e., long-term dependency with multi-scale sequential patterns. In order to tackle these challenges, in this paper, we propose a Hierarchical Periodic Memory Network for lifelong sequential modeling with personalized memorization of sequential patterns for each user. The model also adopts a hierarchical and periodical updating mechanism to capture multi-scale sequential patterns of user interests while supporting the evolving user behavior logs. The experimental results over three large-scale real-world datasets have demonstrated the advantages of our proposed model with significant improvement in user response prediction performance against the state-of-the-arts.

Kan Ren, Yuchen Fang, Weinan Zhang et al.

In online advertising, the Internet users may be exposed to a sequence of different ad campaigns, i.e., display ads, search, or referrals from multiple channels, before led up to any final sales conversion and transaction. For both campaigners and publishers, it is fundamentally critical to estimate the contribution from ad campaign touch-points during the customer journey (conversion funnel) and assign the right credit to the right ad exposure accordingly. However, the existing research on the multi-touch attribution problem lacks a principled way of utilizing the users' pre-conversion actions (i.e., clicks), and quite often fails to model the sequential patterns among the touch points from a user's behavior data. To make it worse, the current industry practice is merely employing a set of arbitrary rules as the attribution model, e.g., the popular last-touch model assigns 100% credit to the final touch-point regardless of actual attributions. In this paper, we propose a Dual-attention Recurrent Neural Network (DARNN) for the multi-touch attribution problem. It learns the attribution values through an attention mechanism directly from the conversion estimation objective. To achieve this, we utilize sequence-to-sequence prediction for user clicks, and combine both post-view and post-click attribution patterns together for the final conversion estimation. To quantitatively benchmark attribution models, we also propose a novel yet practical attribution evaluation scheme through the proxy of budget allocation (under the estimated attributions) over ad channels. The experimental results on two real datasets demonstrate the significant performance gains of our attribution model against the state of the art.