Sach Mukherjee

Felix Schur, Niklas Pfister, Peng Ding et al.

We study the problem of estimating causal effects under hidden confounding in the following unpaired data setting: we observe some covariates $X$ and an outcome $Y$ under different experimental conditions (environments) but do not observe them jointly; we either observe $X$ or $Y$. Under appropriate regularity conditions, the problem can be cast as an instrumental variable (IV) regression with the environment acting as a (possibly high-dimensional) instrument. When there are many environments but only a few observations per environment, standard two-sample IV estimators fail to be consistent. We propose a GMM-type estimator based on cross-fold sample splitting of the instrument-covariate sample and prove that it is consistent as the number of environments grows but the sample size per environment remains constant. We further extend the method to sparse causal effects via $\ell_1$-regularized estimation and post-selection refitting.

Wolfgang Maass, Sabine Janzen, Prajvi Saxena et al.

We introduce Afferent Learning, a framework that produces Computational Afferent Traces (CATs) as adaptive, internal risk signals for damage-avoidance learning. Inspired by biological systems, the framework uses a two-level architecture: evolutionary optimization (outer loop) discovers afferent sensing architectures that enable effective policy learning, while reinforcement learning (inner loop) trains damage-avoidance policies using these signals. This formalizes afferent sensing as providing an inductive bias for efficient learning: architectures are selected based on their ability to enable effective learning (rather than directly minimizing damage). We provide theoretical convergence guarantees under smoothness and bounded-noise assumptions. We illustrate the general approach in the challenging context of biomechanical digital twins operating over long time horizons (multiple decades of the life-course). Here, we find that CAT-based evolved architectures achieve significantly higher efficiency and better age-robustness than hand-designed baselines, enabling policies that exhibit age-dependent behavioral adaptation (23% reduction in high-risk actions). Ablation studies validate CAT signals, evolution, and predictive discrepancy as essential. We release code and data for reproducibility.