Daniel Murfet

Edmund Lau, Zach Furman, George Wang et al.

The Local Learning Coefficient (LLC) is introduced as a novel complexity measure for deep neural networks (DNNs). Recognizing the limitations of traditional complexity measures, the LLC leverages Singular Learning Theory (SLT), which has long recognized the significance of singularities in the loss landscape geometry. This paper provides an extensive exploration of the LLC's theoretical underpinnings, offering both a clear definition and intuitive insights into its application. Moreover, we propose a new scalable estimator for the LLC, which is then effectively applied across diverse architectures including deep linear networks up to 100M parameters, ResNet image models, and transformer language models. Empirical evidence suggests that the LLC provides valuable insights into how training heuristics might influence the effective complexity of DNNs. Ultimately, the LLC emerges as a crucial tool for reconciling the apparent contradiction between deep learning's complexity and the principle of parsimony.

Zhongtian Chen, Edmund Lau, Jake Mendel et al.

We investigate phase transitions in a Toy Model of Superposition (TMS) using Singular Learning Theory (SLT). We derive a closed formula for the theoretical loss and, in the case of two hidden dimensions, discover that regular $k$-gons are critical points. We present supporting theory indicating that the local learning coefficient (a geometric invariant) of these $k$-gons determines phase transitions in the Bayesian posterior as a function of training sample size. We then show empirically that the same $k$-gon critical points also determine the behavior of SGD training. The picture that emerges adds evidence to the conjecture that the SGD learning trajectory is subject to a sequential learning mechanism. Specifically, we find that the learning process in TMS, be it through SGD or Bayesian learning, can be characterized by a journey through parameter space from regions of high loss and low complexity to regions of low loss and high complexity.

George Wang, Daniel Murfet

Mechanistic interpretability aims to understand how neural networks generalize beyond their training data by reverse-engineering their internal structures. We introduce patterning as the dual problem: given a desired form of generalization, determine what training data produces it. Our approach is based on susceptibilities, which measure how posterior expectation values of observables respond to infinitesimal shifts in the data distribution. Inverting this linear response relationship yields the data intervention that steers the model toward a target internal configuration. We demonstrate patterning in a small language model, showing that re-weighting training data along principal susceptibility directions can accelerate or delay the formation of structure, such as the induction circuit. In a synthetic parentheses balancing task where multiple algorithms achieve perfect training accuracy, we show that patterning can select which algorithm the model learns by targeting the local learning coefficient of each solution. These results establish that the same mathematical framework used to read internal structure can be inverted to write it.

Chris Elliott, Einar Urdshals, David Quarel et al.

Singular learning theory characterizes Bayesian learning as an evolving tradeoff between accuracy and complexity, with transitions between qualitatively different solutions as sample size increases. We extend this theory to deep reinforcement learning, proving that the concentration of the generalized posterior over policies is governed by the local learning coefficient (LLC), an invariant of the geometry of the regret function. This theory predicts that Bayesian phase transitions in reinforcement learning should proceed from simple policies with high regret to complex policies with low regret. We verify this prediction empirically in a gridworld environment exhibiting stagewise policy development: phase transitions over SGD training manifest as "opposing staircases" where regret decreases sharply while the LLC increases. Notably, the LLC detects phase transitions even when estimated on a subset of states where the policies appear identical in terms of regret, suggesting it captures changes in the underlying algorithm rather than just performance.

Chris Elliott, Daniel Murfet

We define susceptibilities as a measure of the response of an observable quantity of a parameterized statistical model to a perturbation of the data for a general class of observables. We define estimators for these susceptibilities as statistics in a sequence of n data-points and prove that these estimators are consistent and asymptotically unbiased in the large n regime.

Lee Sharkey, Bilal Chughtai, Joshua Batson et al. · deepmind

Mechanistic interpretability aims to understand the computational mechanisms underlying neural networks' capabilities in order to accomplish concrete scientific and engineering goals. Progress in this field thus promises to provide greater assurance over AI system behavior and shed light on exciting scientific questions about the nature of intelligence. Despite recent progress toward these goals, there are many open problems in the field that require solutions before many scientific and practical benefits can be realized: Our methods require both conceptual and practical improvements to reveal deeper insights; we must figure out how best to apply our methods in pursuit of specific goals; and the field must grapple with socio-technical challenges that influence and are influenced by our work. This forward-facing review discusses the current frontier of mechanistic interpretability and the open problems that the field may benefit from prioritizing.

Chris Elliott, Einar Urdshals, David Quarel et al.

Susceptibilities are a technique for neural network interpretability that studies the response of posterior expectation values of observables to perturbations of the loss. We generalize this construction to the setting of the regret in deep reinforcement learning and investigate the utility of susceptibilities in a simple gridworld model that nevertheless exhibits non-trivial stagewise development. We argue that susceptibilities reveal internal features of the development of the model in parameter space that one cannot detect purely by studying the development of the learned policy. We validate these results with activation-steering, and discuss the framework's extension to RLHF post-training.

Chris Elliott, Daniel Murfet

These notes introduce the theory of susceptibilities as developed in [arXiv:2504.18274, arXiv:2601.12703] for interpreting neural networks. The susceptibility of an observable $ϕ$ to a data perturbation is defined as a derivative of a posterior expectation, which by the fluctuation--dissipation theorem equals a posterior covariance. Different choices of $ϕ$ yield different objects: per-sample losses give the influence matrix (the Bayesian influence function of [arXiv:2509.26544]), while component-localized observables give the structural susceptibility matrix that pairs model components with data patterns. The susceptibility matrix is (up to a factor of $nβ$) the Jacobian of the map from data distributions to structural coordinates; its pseudo-inverse provides a linearized solution to the patterning problem of [arXiv:2601.13548]: finding data perturbations that produce a desired structural change. We motivate the theory from its statistical-mechanical foundations, then give a detailed exposition of susceptibilities, their empirical estimators, and their connection to the geometry of the loss landscape.

Jesse Hoogland, George Wang, Matthew Farrugia-Roberts et al.

Deep learning involves navigating a high-dimensional loss landscape over the neural network parameter space. Over the course of training, complex computational structures form and re-form inside the neural network, leading to shifts in input/output behavior. It is a priority for the science of deep learning to uncover principles governing the development of neural network structure and behavior. Drawing on the framework of singular learning theory, we propose that model development is deeply linked to degeneracy in the local geometry of the loss landscape. We investigate this link by monitoring loss landscape degeneracy throughout training, as quantified by the local learning coefficient, for a transformer language model and an in-context linear regression transformer. We show that training can be divided into distinct periods of change in loss landscape degeneracy, and that these changes in degeneracy coincide with significant changes in the internal computational structure and the input/output behavior of the transformers. This finding provides suggestive evidence that degeneracy and development are linked in transformers, underscoring the potential of a degeneracy-based perspective for understanding modern deep learning.

Simon Pepin Lehalleur, Jesse Hoogland, Matthew Farrugia-Roberts et al.

In this position paper, we argue that understanding the relation between structure in the data distribution and structure in trained models is central to AI alignment. First, we discuss how two neural networks can have equivalent performance on the training set but compute their outputs in essentially different ways and thus generalise differently. For this reason, standard testing and evaluation are insufficient for obtaining assurances of safety for widely deployed generally intelligent systems. We argue that to progress beyond evaluation to a robust mathematical science of AI alignment, we need to develop statistical foundations for an understanding of the relation between structure in the data distribution, internal structure in models, and how these structures underlie generalisation.

Liam Carroll, Jesse Hoogland, Matthew Farrugia-Roberts et al.

Modern deep neural networks display striking examples of rich internal computational structure. Uncovering principles governing the development of such structure is a priority for the science of deep learning. In this paper, we explore the transient ridge phenomenon: when transformers are trained on in-context linear regression tasks with intermediate task diversity, they initially behave like ridge regression before specializing to the tasks in their training distribution. This transition from a general solution to a specialized solution is revealed by joint trajectory principal component analysis. Further, we draw on the theory of Bayesian internal model selection to suggest a general explanation for the phenomena of transient structure in transformers, based on an evolving tradeoff between loss and complexity. We empirically validate this explanation by measuring the model complexity of our transformers as defined by the local learning coefficient.

Zhongtian Chen, Daniel Murfet

We develop a geometric account of sequence modelling that links patterns in the data to measurable properties of the loss landscape in transformer networks. First, we cast conditional sequence distributions into a Hilbert-space framework and apply tensor decompositions to identify their principal modes. Truncating the small-amplitude modes yields an effective data distribution that preserves dominant structure while discarding statistical detail. Second, we show theoretically that Local Learning Coefficient (LLC) estimates are insensitive to modes below a data-dependent threshold. Consequently, the LLC calculated in practice characterises the geometry of the effective rather than the true distribution. This insight clarifies why reliable LLC estimates can be obtained even when a network parameter is not a strict minimiser of the population loss, and it highlights how the inverse temperature in SGLD acts as a resolution dial on the landscape structure.

Garrett Baker, George Wang, Jesse Hoogland et al.

We develop a linear response framework for interpretability that treats a neural network as a Bayesian statistical mechanical system. A small perturbation of the data distribution, for example shifting the Pile toward GitHub or legal text, induces a first-order change in the posterior expectation of an observable localized on a chosen component of the network. The resulting susceptibility can be estimated efficiently with local SGLD samples and factorizes into signed, per-token contributions that serve as attribution scores. We combine these susceptibilities into a response matrix whose low-rank structure separates functional modules such as multigram and induction heads in a 3M-parameter transformer.

Einar Urdshals, Edmund Lau, Jesse Hoogland et al.

We study neural network compressibility by using singular learning theory to extend the minimum description length (MDL) principle to singular models like neural networks. Through extensive experiments on the Pythia suite with quantization, factorization, and other compression techniques, we find that complexity estimates based on the local learning coefficient (LLC) are closely, and in some cases, linearly correlated with compressibility. Our results provide a path toward rigorously evaluating the limits of model compression.

Daniel Murfet, Will Troiani

We develop a correspondence between the structure of Turing machines and the structure of singularities of real analytic functions, based on connecting the Ehrhard-Regnier derivative from linear logic with the role of geometry in Watanabe's singular learning theory. The correspondence works by embedding ordinary (discrete) Turing machine codes into a family of noisy codes which form a smooth parameter space. On this parameter space we consider a potential function which has Turing machines as critical points. By relating the Taylor series expansion of this potential at such a critical point to combinatorics of error syndromes, we relate the local geometry to internal structure of the Turing machine. The potential in question is the negative log-likelihood for a statistical model, so that the structure of the Turing machine and its associated singularity is further related to Bayesian inference. Two algorithms that produce the same predictive function can nonetheless correspond to singularities with different geometries, which implies that the Bayesian posterior can discriminate between distinct algorithmic implementations, contrary to a purely functional view of inference. In the context of singular learning theory our results point to a more nuanced understanding of Occam's razor and the meaning of simplicity in inductive inference.

Andrew Gordon, Garrett Baker, George Wang et al.

Spectroscopy infers the internal structure of physical systems by measuring their response to perturbations. We apply this principle to neural networks: perturbing the data distribution by upweighting a token $y$ in context $x$, we measure the model's response via susceptibilities $χ_{xy}$, which are covariances between component-level observables and the perturbation computed over a localized Gibbs posterior via stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD). Theoretically, we show that susceptibilities decompose as a sum over modes of the data distribution, explaining why tokens that follow their contexts "for similar reasons" cluster together in susceptibility space. Empirically, we apply this methodology to Pythia-14M, developing a conductance-based clustering algorithm that identifies 510 interpretable clusters ranging from grammatical patterns to code structure to mathematical notation. Comparing to sparse autoencoders, 50% of our clusters match SAE features, validating that both methods recover similar structure.

George Wang, Garrett Baker, Andrew Gordon et al.

Understanding how language models develop their internal computational structure is a central problem in the science of deep learning. While susceptibilities, drawn from statistical physics, offer a promising analytical tool, their full potential for visualizing network organization remains untapped. In this work, we introduce an embryological approach, applying UMAP to the susceptibility matrix to visualize the model's structural development over training. Our visualizations reveal the emergence of a clear ``body plan,'' charting the formation of known features like the induction circuit and discovering previously unknown structures, such as a ``spacing fin'' dedicated to counting space tokens. This work demonstrates that susceptibility analysis can move beyond validation to uncover novel mechanisms, providing a powerful, holistic lens for studying the developmental principles of complex neural networks.

James Clift, Daniel Murfet, James Wallbridge

We re-evaluate universal computation based on the synthesis of Turing machines. This leads to a view of programs as singularities of analytic varieties or, equivalently, as phases of the Bayesian posterior of a synthesis problem. This new point of view reveals unexplored directions of research in program synthesis, of which neural networks are a subset, for example in relation to phase transitions, complexity and generalisation. We also lay the empirical foundations for these new directions by reporting on our implementation in code of some simple experiments.

Daniel Murfet, Susan Wei, Mingming Gong et al.

In singular models, the optimal set of parameters forms an analytic set with singularities and classical statistical inference cannot be applied to such models. This is significant for deep learning as neural networks are singular and thus "dividing" by the determinant of the Hessian or employing the Laplace approximation are not appropriate. Despite its potential for addressing fundamental issues in deep learning, singular learning theory appears to have made little inroads into the developing canon of deep learning theory. Via a mix of theory and experiment, we present an invitation to singular learning theory as a vehicle for understanding deep learning and suggest important future work to make singular learning theory directly applicable to how deep learning is performed in practice.

James Clift, Dmitry Doryn, Daniel Murfet et al.

We introduce the $2$-simplicial Transformer, an extension of the Transformer which includes a form of higher-dimensional attention generalising the dot-product attention, and uses this attention to update entity representations with tensor products of value vectors. We show that this architecture is a useful inductive bias for logical reasoning in the context of deep reinforcement learning.