Michael Moseley

Yongkai Liu, Helena Feng, Bin Jiang et al.

Predicting outcomes in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) guides clinical decision-making, patient counseling, and resource allocation. Clinical notes contain rich contextual information, but their unstructured nature limits their use in traditional predictive models. We developed and evaluated the Chain-of-Thought (CoT) Outcome Prediction Engine (COPE), a reasoning-enhanced large language model framework, for predicting 90-day functional outcomes after AIS from unstructured clinical notes. This study included 464 AIS patients with discharge summaries and 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores. COPE uses a two-step CoT framework based on sequential open-source LLaMA-3-8B models: the first generates clinical reasoning, and the second outputs an mRS prediction. We compared COPE with GPT-4.1, ClinicalBERT, a structured variable-based machine learning model (Clinical ML), and a single-step LLM without CoT. Performance was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE), accuracy within +/-1 mRS point, and exact accuracy. COPE achieved an MAE of 1.01 (95% CI 0.92-1.11), +/-1 accuracy of 74.4% (69.9, 78.8%), and exact accuracy of 32.8% (28.0, 37.6%), comparable to GPT-4.1 and superior to ClinicalBERT [MAE 1.24 (1.13-1.36)], Clinical ML [1.28 (1.18-1.39)], and the single-step LLM [1.20 (1.09-1.33)]. Subgroup analyses showed consistent performance across sex and age, with slightly higher error among older patients, those undergoing thrombectomy, and those with longer summaries. These findings demonstrate that COPE, a lightweight, interpretable, and privacy-preserving open-source framework, provides an accurate and practical solution for outcome prediction from unstructured clinical text.

Ramy Hussein, David Shin, Moss Zhao et al.

Accurate quantification of cerebral blood flow (CBF) is essential for the diagnosis and assessment of a wide range of neurological diseases. Positron emission tomography (PET) with radiolabeled water (15O-water) is considered the gold-standard for the measurement of CBF in humans. PET imaging, however, is not widely available because of its prohibitive costs and use of short-lived radiopharmaceutical tracers that typically require onsite cyclotron production. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), in contrast, is more readily accessible and does not involve ionizing radiation. This study presents a convolutional encoder-decoder network with attention mechanisms to predict gold-standard 15O-water PET CBF from multi-sequence MRI scans, thereby eliminating the need for radioactive tracers. Inputs to the prediction model include several commonly used MRI sequences (T1-weighted, T2-FLAIR, and arterial spin labeling). The model was trained and validated using 5-fold cross-validation in a group of 126 subjects consisting of healthy controls and cerebrovascular disease patients, all of whom underwent simultaneous $15O-water PET/MRI. The results show that such a model can successfully synthesize high-quality PET CBF measurements (with an average SSIM of 0.924 and PSNR of 38.8 dB) and is more accurate compared to concurrent and previous PET synthesis methods. We also demonstrate the clinical significance of the proposed algorithm by evaluating the agreement for identifying the vascular territories with abnormally low CBF. Such methods may enable more widespread and accurate CBF evaluation in larger cohorts who cannot undergo PET imaging due to radiation concerns, lack of access, or logistic challenges.

Edward H. Lee, Brendan Kelly, Emre Altinmakas et al.

While it is well known that population differences from genetics, sex, race, and environmental factors contribute to disease, AI studies in medicine have largely focused on locoregional patient cohorts with less diverse data sources. Such limitation stems from barriers to large-scale data share and ethical concerns over data privacy. Federated learning (FL) is one potential pathway for AI development that enables learning across hospitals without data share. In this study, we show the results of various FL strategies on one of the largest and most diverse COVID-19 chest CT datasets: 21 participating hospitals across five continents that comprise >10,000 patients with >1 million images. We also propose an FL strategy that leverages synthetically generated data to overcome class and size imbalances. We also describe the sources of data heterogeneity in the context of FL, and show how even among the correctly labeled populations, disparities can arise due to these biases.

Sophie Ostmeier, Justin Xu, Zhihong Chen et al.

Evaluating radiology reports is a challenging problem as factual correctness is extremely important due to the need for accurate medical communication about medical images. Existing automatic evaluation metrics either suffer from failing to consider factual correctness (e.g., BLEU and ROUGE) or are limited in their interpretability (e.g., F1CheXpert and F1RadGraph). In this paper, we introduce GREEN (Generative Radiology Report Evaluation and Error Notation), a radiology report generation metric that leverages the natural language understanding of language models to identify and explain clinically significant errors in candidate reports, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Compared to current metrics, GREEN offers: 1) a score aligned with expert preferences, 2) human interpretable explanations of clinically significant errors, enabling feedback loops with end-users, and 3) a lightweight open-source method that reaches the performance of commercial counterparts. We validate our GREEN metric by comparing it to GPT-4, as well as to error counts of 6 experts and preferences of 2 experts. Our method demonstrates not only higher correlation with expert error counts, but simultaneously higher alignment with expert preferences when compared to previous approaches.

Ramy Hussein, Moss Zhao, David Shin et al.

Accurate quantification of cerebral blood flow (CBF) is essential for the diagnosis and assessment of cerebrovascular diseases such as Moyamoya, carotid stenosis, aneurysms, and stroke. Positron emission tomography (PET) is currently regarded as the gold standard for the measurement of CBF in the human brain. PET imaging, however, is not widely available because of its prohibitive costs, use of ionizing radiation, and logistical challenges, which require a co-localized cyclotron to deliver the 2 min half-life Oxygen-15 radioisotope. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), in contrast, is more readily available and does not involve ionizing radiation. In this study, we propose a multi-task learning framework for brain MRI-to-PET translation and disease diagnosis. The proposed framework comprises two prime networks: (1) an attention-based 3D encoder-decoder convolutional neural network (CNN) that synthesizes high-quality PET CBF maps from multi-contrast MRI images, and (2) a multi-scale 3D CNN that identifies the brain disease corresponding to the input MRI images. Our multi-task framework yields promising results on the task of MRI-to-PET translation, achieving an average structural similarity index (SSIM) of 0.94 and peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) of 38dB on a cohort of 120 subjects. In addition, we show that integrating multiple MRI modalities can improve the clinical diagnosis of brain diseases.