Harrison B. Prosper

Ali Al Kadhim, Harrison B. Prosper

Simulation-based inference methods that feature correct conditional coverage of confidence sets based on observations that have been compressed to a scalar test statistic require accurate modeling of either the p-value function or the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the test statistic. If the model of the cdf, which is typically a deep neural network, is a function of the test statistic then the derivative of the neural network with respect to the test statistic furnishes an approximation of the sampling distribution of the test statistic. We explore whether this approach to modeling conditional 1-dimensional sampling distributions is a viable alternative to the probability density-ratio method, also known as the likelihood-ratio trick. Relatively simple, yet effective, neural network models are used whose predictive uncertainty is quantified through a variety of methods.

Braden Kronheim, Michelle P. Kuchera, Harrison B. Prosper et al.

Reliable modeling of conditional densities is important for quantitative scientific fields such as particle physics. In domains outside physics, implicit quantile neural networks (IQN) have been shown to provide accurate models of conditional densities. We present a successful application of IQNs to jet simulation and correction using the tools and simulated data from the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) Open Data portal.