Simon Tindemans

Michael P. Evans, Simon Tindemans, David Angeli

This paper considers the optimal dispatch of energy-constrained heterogeneous storage units to maximise security of supply. A policy, requiring no knowledge of the future, is presented and shown to minimise unserved energy during supply-shortfall events, regardless of the supply and demand profiles. It is accompanied by a graphical means to rapidly determine unavoidable energy shortfalls, which can then be used to compare different device fleets. The policy is well-suited for use within the framework of system adequacy assessment; for this purpose, a discrete time optimal policy is conceived, in both analytic and algorithmic forms, such that these results can be applied to discrete time systems and simulation studies. This is exemplified via a generation adequacy study of the British system.

Kutay Bölat, Simon Tindemans

Generative modelling of multi-user datasets has become prominent in science and engineering. Generating a data point for a given user requires employing user information, and conventional generative models, including variational autoencoders (VAEs), often ignore that. This paper introduces GUIDE-VAE, a novel conditional generative model that leverages user embeddings to generate user-guided data. By allowing the model to benefit from shared patterns across users, GUIDE-VAE enhances performance in multi-user settings, even under significant data imbalance. In addition to integrating user information, GUIDE-VAE incorporates a pattern dictionary-based covariance composition (PDCC) to improve the realism of generated samples by capturing complex feature dependencies. While user embeddings drive performance gains, PDCC addresses common issues such as noise and over-smoothing typically seen in VAEs. The proposed GUIDE-VAE was evaluated on a multi-user smart meter dataset characterized by substantial data imbalance across users. Quantitative results show that GUIDE-VAE performs effectively in both synthetic data generation and missing record imputation tasks, while qualitative evaluations reveal that GUIDE-VAE produces more plausible and less noisy data. These results establish GUIDE-VAE as a promising tool for controlled, realistic data generation in multi-user datasets, with potential applications across various domains requiring user-informed modelling.

Kutay Bölat, Simon Tindemans

Probabilistic forecasting in power systems often involves multi-entity datasets like households, feeders, and wind turbines, where generating reliable entity-specific forecasts presents significant challenges. Traditional approaches require training individual models for each entity, making them inefficient and hard to scale. This study addresses this problem using GUIDE-VAE, a conditional variational autoencoder that allows entity-specific probabilistic forecasting using a single model. GUIDE-VAE provides flexible outputs, ranging from interpretable point estimates to full probability distributions, thanks to its advanced covariance composition structure. These distributions capture uncertainty and temporal dependencies, offering richer insights than traditional methods. To evaluate our GUIDE-VAE-based forecaster, we use household electricity consumption data as a case study due to its multi-entity and highly stochastic nature. Experimental results demonstrate that GUIDE-VAE outperforms conventional quantile regression techniques across key metrics while ensuring scalability and versatility. These features make GUIDE-VAE a powerful and generalizable tool for probabilistic forecasting tasks, with potential applications beyond household electricity consumption.

Kutay Bölat, Peter Palensky, Simon Tindemans

Accurate intraday forecasts are essential for power system operations, complementing day-ahead forecasts that gradually lose relevance as new information becomes available. This paper introduces a Bayesian updating mechanism that converts fully probabilistic day-ahead forecasts into intraday forecasts without retraining or re-inference. The approach conditions the Gaussian mixture output of a conditional variational autoencoder-based forecaster on observed measurements, yielding an updated distribution for the remaining horizon that preserves its probabilistic structure. This enables consistent point, quantile, and ensemble forecasts while remaining computationally efficient and suitable for real-time applications. Experiments on household electricity consumption and photovoltaic generation datasets demonstrate that the proposed method improves forecast accuracy up to 25% across likelihood-, sample-, quantile-, and point-based metrics. The largest gains occur in time steps with strong temporal correlation to observed data, and the use of pattern dictionary-based covariance structures further enhances performance. The results highlight a theoretically grounded framework for intraday forecasting in modern power systems.

Kutay Bölat, Tarek Alskaif, Peter Palensky et al.

As the number of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) installations increases, aggregators and system operators are required to monitor and analyze these systems, raising the challenge of integration and management of large, spatially distributed time-series data that are both high-dimensional and affected by missing values. In this work, a probabilistic entity embedding-based clustering framework is proposed to address these problems. This method encodes each PV system's characteristic power generation patterns and uncertainty as a probability distribution, then groups systems by their statistical distances and agglomerative clustering. Applied to a multi-year residential PV dataset, it produces concise, uncertainty-aware cluster profiles that outperform a physics-based baseline in representativeness and robustness, and support reliable missing-value imputation. A systematic hyperparameter study further offers practical guidance for balancing model performance and robustness.

Chenguang Wang, Simon Tindemans, Kaikai Pan et al.

State estimation is of considerable significance for the power system operation and control. However, well-designed false data injection attacks can utilize blind spots in conventional residual-based bad data detection methods to manipulate measurements in a coordinated manner and thus affect the secure operation and economic dispatch of grids. In this paper, we propose a detection approach based on an autoencoder neural network. By training the network on the dependencies intrinsic in 'normal' operation data, it effectively overcomes the challenge of unbalanced training data that is inherent in power system attack detection. To evaluate the detection performance of the proposed mechanism, we conduct a series of experiments on the IEEE 118-bus power system. The experiments demonstrate that the proposed autoencoder detector displays robust detection performance under a variety of attack scenarios.

Simon Tindemans, Goran Strbac

Thermostatically controlled loads such as refrigerators are exceptionally suitable as a flexible demand resource. This paper derives a decentralised load control algorithm for refrigerators. It is adapted from an existing continuous time control approach, with the aim to achieve low computational complexity and an ability to handle discrete time steps of variable length -- desirable features for embedding in appliances and high-throughput simulations. Simulation results of large populations of heterogeneous appliances illustrate the accurate aggregate control of power consumption and high computational efficiency.