Tomi Peltola

Mustafa Mert Çelikok, Tomi Peltola, Pedram Daee et al.

Understanding each other is the key to success in collaboration. For humans, attributing mental states to others, the theory of mind, provides the crucial advantage. We argue for formulating human--AI interaction as a multi-agent problem, endowing AI with a computational theory of mind to understand and anticipate the user. To differentiate the approach from previous work, we introduce a categorisation of user modelling approaches based on the level of agency learnt in the interaction. We describe our recent work in using nested multi-agent modelling to formulate user models for multi-armed bandit based interactive AI systems, including a proof-of-concept user study.

Tomi Peltola, Jussi Jokinen, Samuel Kaski

The framework of cognitively bounded rationality treats problem solving as fundamentally rational, but emphasises that it is constrained by cognitive architecture and the task environment. This paper investigates a simple decision making heuristic, Take The Best (TTB), within that framework. We formulate TTB as a likelihood-based probabilistic model, where the decision strategy arises by probabilistic inference based on the training data and the model constraints. The strengths of the probabilistic formulation, in addition to providing a bounded rational account of the learning of the heuristic, include natural extensibility with additional cognitively plausible constraints and prior information, and the possibility to embed the heuristic as a subpart of a larger probabilistic model. We extend the model to learn cue discrimination thresholds for continuous-valued cues and experiment with using the model to account for biased preference feedback from a boundedly rational agent in a simulated interactive machine learning task.

Homayun Afrabandpey, Tomi Peltola, Samuel Kaski

Learning predictive models from small high-dimensional data sets is a key problem in high-dimensional statistics. Expert knowledge elicitation can help, and a strong line of work focuses on directly eliciting informative prior distributions for parameters. This either requires considerable statistical expertise or is laborious, as the emphasis has been on accuracy and not on efficiency of the process. Another line of work queries about importance of features one at a time, assuming them to be independent and hence missing covariance information. In contrast, we propose eliciting expert knowledge about pairwise feature similarities, to borrow statistical strength in the predictions, and using sequential decision making techniques to minimize the effort of the expert. Empirical results demonstrate improvement in predictive performance on both simulated and real data, in high-dimensional linear regression tasks, where we learn the covariance structure with a Gaussian process, based on sequential elicitation.

Tomi Peltola

We introduce a method, KL-LIME, for explaining predictions of Bayesian predictive models by projecting the information in the predictive distribution locally to a simpler, interpretable explanation model. The proposed approach combines the recent Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) method with ideas from Bayesian projection predictive variable selection methods. The information theoretic basis helps in navigating the trade-off between explanation fidelity and complexity. We demonstrate the method in explaining MNIST digit classifications made by a Bayesian deep convolutional neural network.

Tomi Peltola, Mustafa Mert Çelikok, Pedram Daee et al.

Machine teaching addresses the problem of finding the best training data that can guide a learning algorithm to a target model with minimal effort. In conventional settings, a teacher provides data that are consistent with the true data distribution. However, for sequential learners which actively choose their queries, such as multi-armed bandits and active learners, the teacher can only provide responses to the learner's queries, not design the full data. In this setting, consistent teachers can be sub-optimal for finite horizons. We formulate this sequential teaching problem, which current techniques in machine teaching do not address, as a Markov decision process, with the dynamics nesting a model of the learner and the actions being the teacher's responses. Furthermore, we address the complementary problem of learning from a teacher that plans: to recognise the teaching intent of the responses, the learner is endowed with a model of the teacher. We test the formulation with multi-armed bandit learners in simulated experiments and a user study. The results show that learning is improved by (i) planning teaching and (ii) the learner having a model of the teacher. The approach gives tools to taking into account strategic (planning) behaviour of users of interactive intelligent systems, such as recommendation engines, by considering them as boundedly optimal teachers.

Iiris Sundin, Tomi Peltola, Muntasir Mamun Majumder et al.

Predicting the efficacy of a drug for a given individual, using high-dimensional genomic measurements, is at the core of precision medicine. However, identifying features on which to base the predictions remains a challenge, especially when the sample size is small. Incorporating expert knowledge offers a promising alternative to improve a prediction model, but collecting such knowledge is laborious to the expert if the number of candidate features is very large. We introduce a probabilistic model that can incorporate expert feedback about the impact of genomic measurements on the sensitivity of a cancer cell for a given drug. We also present two methods to intelligently collect this feedback from the expert, using experimental design and multi-armed bandit models. In a multiple myeloma blood cancer data set (n=51), expert knowledge decreased the prediction error by 8%. Furthermore, the intelligent approaches can be used to reduce the workload of feedback collection to less than 30% on average compared to a naive approach.

Luana Micallef, Iiris Sundin, Pekka Marttinen et al.

Providing accurate predictions is challenging for machine learning algorithms when the number of features is larger than the number of samples in the data. Prior knowledge can improve machine learning models by indicating relevant variables and parameter values. Yet, this prior knowledge is often tacit and only available from domain experts. We present a novel approach that uses interactive visualization to elicit the tacit prior knowledge and uses it to improve the accuracy of prediction models. The main component of our approach is a user model that models the domain expert's knowledge of the relevance of different features for a prediction task. In particular, based on the expert's earlier input, the user model guides the selection of the features on which to elicit user's knowledge next. The results of a controlled user study show that the user model significantly improves prior knowledge elicitation and prediction accuracy, when predicting the relative citation counts of scientific documents in a specific domain.