Jim Q. Smith

Manuele Leonelli, Jim Q. Smith, Sophia K. Wright

Bayesian networks are one of the most widely used classes of probabilistic models for risk management and decision support because of their interpretability and flexibility in including heterogeneous pieces of information. In any applied modelling, it is critical to assess how robust the inferences on certain target variables are to changes in the model. In Bayesian networks, these analyses fall under the umbrella of sensitivity analysis, which is most commonly carried out by quantifying dissimilarities using Kullback-Leibler information measures. In this paper, we argue that robustness methods based instead on the familiar total variation distance provide simple and more valuable bounds on robustness to misspecification, which are both formally justifiable and transparent. We introduce a novel measure of dependence in conditional probability tables called the diameter to derive such bounds. This measure quantifies the strength of dependence between a variable and its parents. We demonstrate how such formal robustness considerations can be embedded in building a Bayesian network.

Kieran Drury, Martine J. Barons, Jim Q. Smith

The very expressiveness of Bayesian networks can introduce fresh challenges due to the large number of relationships they often model. In many domains, it is thus often essential to supplement any available data with elicited expert judgements. This in turn leads to two key challenges: the cognitive burden of these judgements is often very high, and there are a very large number of judgements required to obtain a full probability model. We can mitigate both issues by introducing assumptions such as independence of causal influences (ICI) on the local structures throughout the network, restricting the parameter space of the model. However, the assumption of ICI is often unjustified and overly strong. In this paper, we introduce the surjective independence of causal influences (SICI) model which relaxes the ICI assumption and provides a more viable, practical alternative local structure model that facilitates efficient Bayesian network parameterisation.

Kieran Drury, Martine J. Barons, Jim Q. Smith

Many Bayesian network modelling applications suffer from the issue of data scarcity. Hence the use of expert judgement often becomes necessary to determine the parameters of the conditional probability tables (CPTs) throughout the network. There are usually a prohibitively large number of these parameters to determine, even when complementing any available data with expert judgements. To address this challenge, a number of CPT approximation methods have been developed that reduce the quantity and complexity of parameters needing to be determined to fully parameterise a Bayesian network. This paper provides a review of a variety of structural refinement methods that can be used in practice to efficiently approximate a CPT within a Bayesian network. We not only introduce and discuss the intrinsic properties and requirements of each method, but we evaluate each method through a worked example on a Bayesian network model of cardiovascular risk assessment. We conclude with practical guidance to help Bayesian network practitioners choose an alternative approach when direct parameterisation of a CPT is infeasible.

Valerio Perrone, Simon Hengchen, Marco Palma et al.

Change and its precondition, variation, are inherent in languages. Over time, new words enter the lexicon, others become obsolete, and existing words acquire new senses. Associating a word's correct meaning in its historical context is a central challenge in diachronic research. Historical corpora of classical languages, such as Ancient Greek and Latin, typically come with rich metadata, and existing models are limited by their inability to exploit contextual information beyond the document timestamp. While embedding-based methods feature among the current state of the art systems, they are lacking in the interpretative power. In contrast, Bayesian models provide explicit and interpretable representations of semantic change phenomena. In this chapter we build on GASC, a recent computational approach to semantic change based on a dynamic Bayesian mixture model. In this model, the evolution of word senses over time is based not only on distributional information of lexical nature, but also on text genres. We provide a systematic comparison of dynamic Bayesian mixture models for semantic change with state-of-the-art embedding-based models. On top of providing a full description of meaning change over time, we show that Bayesian mixture models are highly competitive approaches to detect binary semantic change in both Ancient Greek and Latin.

Aditi Shenvi, F. Oliver Bunnin, Jim Q. Smith

Activities of terrorist groups present a serious threat to the security and well-being of the general public. Counterterrorism authorities aim to identify and frustrate the plans of terrorist groups before they are put into action. Whilst the activities of terrorist groups are likely to be hidden and disguised, the members of such groups need to communicate and coordinate to organise their activities. Such observable behaviour and communications data can be utilised by the authorities to estimate the threat posed by a terrorist group. However, to be credible, any such statistical model needs to fold in the level of threat posed by each member of the group. Unlike in other benign forms of social networks, considering the members of terrorist groups as exchangeable gives an incomplete picture of the combined capacity of the group to do harm. Here we develop a Bayesian integrating decision support system that can bring together information relating to each of the members of a terrorist group as well as the combined activities of the group.

Aditi Shenvi, Jim Q. Smith

Chain Event Graphs (CEGs) are a family of event-based graphical models that represent context-specific conditional independences typically exhibited by asymmetric state space problems. The class of continuous time dynamic CEGs (CT-DCEGs) provides a factored representation of longitudinally evolving trajectories of a process in continuous time. Temporal evidence in a CT-DCEG introduces dependence between its transition and holding time distributions. We present a tractable exact inferential scheme analogous to the scheme in Kjærulff (1992) for discrete Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) which employs standard junction tree inference by "unrolling" the DBN. To enable this scheme, we present an extension of the standard CEG propagation algorithm (Thwaites et al., 2008). Interestingly, the CT-DCEG benefits from simplification of its graph on observing compatible evidence while preserving the still relevant symmetries within the asymmetric network. Our results indicate that the CT-DCEG is preferred to DBNs and continuous time BNs under contexts involving significant asymmetry and a natural total ordering of the process evolution.

Valerio Perrone, Marco Palma, Simon Hengchen et al.

Word meaning changes over time, depending on linguistic and extra-linguistic factors. Associating a word's correct meaning in its historical context is a central challenge in diachronic research, and is relevant to a range of NLP tasks, including information retrieval and semantic search in historical texts. Bayesian models for semantic change have emerged as a powerful tool to address this challenge, providing explicit and interpretable representations of semantic change phenomena. However, while corpora typically come with rich metadata, existing models are limited by their inability to exploit contextual information (such as text genre) beyond the document time-stamp. This is particularly critical in the case of ancient languages, where lack of data and long diachronic span make it harder to draw a clear distinction between polysemy (the fact that a word has several senses) and semantic change (the process of acquiring, losing, or changing senses), and current systems perform poorly on these languages. We develop GASC, a dynamic semantic change model that leverages categorical metadata about the texts' genre to boost inference and uncover the evolution of meanings in Ancient Greek corpora. In a new evaluation framework, our model achieves improved predictive performance compared to the state of the art.

Rodrigo A. Collazo, Jim Q. Smith

A Dynamic Chain Event Graph (DCEG) provides a rich tree-based framework for modelling a dynamic process with highly asymmetric developments. An N Time-Slice DCEG (NT-DCEG) is a useful subclass of the DCEG class that exhibits a specific type of periodicity in its supporting tree graph and embodies a time-homogeneity assumption. Here some desired properties of an NT-DCEG is explored. In particular, we prove that the class of NT-DCEGs contains all discrete N time-slice Dynamic Bayesian Networks as special cases. We also develop a method to distributively construct an NT-DCEG model. By exploiting the topology of an NT-DCEG graph, we show how to construct intrinsic random variables which exhibit context-specific independences that can then be checked by domain experts. We also show how an NT-DCEG can be used to depict various structural and Granger causal hypotheses about a given process. Our methods are illustrated throughout using examples of dynamic multivariate processes describing inmate radicalisation in a prison.

Rodrigo A. Collazo, Jim Q. Smith

The Dynamic Chain Event Graph (DCEG) is able to depict many classes of discrete random processes exhibiting asymmetries in their developments and context-specific conditional probabilities structures. However, paradoxically, this very generality has so far frustrated its wide application. So in this paper we develop an object-oriented method to fully analyse a particularly useful and feasibly implementable new subclass of these graphical models called the N Time-Slice DCEG (NT-DCEG). After demonstrating a close relationship between an NT-DCEG and a specific class of Markov processes, we discuss how graphical modellers can exploit this connection to gain a deep understanding of their processes. We also show how to read from the topology of this graph context-specific independence statements that can then be checked by domain experts. Our methods are illustrated throughout using examples of dynamic multivariate processes describing inmate radicalisation in a prison.

Manuele Leonelli, Jim Q. Smith

A variety of statistical graphical models have been defined to represent the conditional independences underlying a random vector of interest. Similarly, many different graphs embedding various types of preferential independences, as for example conditional utility independence and generalized additive independence, have more recently started to appear. In this paper we define a new graphical model, called a directed expected utility network, whose edges depict both probabilistic and utility conditional independences. These embed a very flexible class of utility models, much larger than those usually conceived in standard influence diagrams. Our graphical representation, and various transformations of the original graph into a tree structure, are then used to guide fast routines for the computation of a decision problem's expected utilities. We show that our routines generalize those usually utilized in standard influence diagrams' evaluations under much more restrictive conditions. We then proceed with the construction of a directed expected utility network to support decision makers in the domain of household food security.

Peter A. Thwaites, Jim Q. Smith

Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular graphical models for the representation of statistical problems embodying dependence relationships between a number of variables. Much of this popularity is due to the d-separation theorem of Pearl and Lauritzen, which allows an analyst to identify the conditional independence statements that a model of the problem embodies using only the topology of the graph. However for many problems the complete model dependence structure cannot be depicted by a BN. The Chain Event Graph (CEG) was introduced for these types of problem. In this paper we introduce a separation theorem for CEGs, analogous to the d-separation theorem for BNs, which likewise allows an analyst to identify the conditional independence structure of their model from the topology of the graph.