Cláudia Soares

João Norberto, Ricardo Ferreira, Cláudia Soares

The use of satellite networks has increased significantly in recent years due to their advantages over purely terrestrial systems, such as higher availability and coverage. However, to effectively provide these services, satellite networks must cope with the continuous orbital movement and maneuvering of their nodes and the impact on the network's topology. In this work, we address the problem of (dynamic) network topology configuration under the online learning framework. As a byproduct, our approach does not assume structure about the network, such as known orbital planes (that could be violated by maneuvering satellites). We empirically demonstrate that our problem formulation matches the performance of state-of-the-art offline methods. Importantly, we demonstrate that our approach is amenable to constrained online learning, exhibiting a trade-off between computational complexity per iteration and convergence to a final strategy.

Ricardo Ferreira, Marta Guimarães, Filipa Valdeira et al.

Due to the importance of satellites for society and the exponential increase in the number of objects in orbit, it is important to accurately determine the state (e.g., position and velocity) of these Resident Space Objects (RSOs) at any time and in a timely manner. State-of-the-art methodologies for initial orbit determination consist of Kalman-type filters that process sequential data over time and return the state and associated uncertainty of the object, as is the case of the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). However, these methodologies are dependent on a good initial guess for the state vector and usually simplify the physical dynamical model, due to the difficulty of precisely modeling perturbative forces, such as atmospheric drag and solar radiation pressure. Other approaches do not require assumptions about the dynamical system, such as the trilateration method, and require simultaneous measurements, such as three measurements of range and range-rate for the particular case of trilateration. We consider the same setting of simultaneous measurements (one-shot), resorting to time delay and Doppler shift measurements. Based on recent advancements in the problem of moving target localization for sonar multistatic systems, we are able to formulate the problem of initial orbit determination as a Weighted Least Squares. With this approach, we are able to directly obtain the state of the object (position and velocity) and the associated covariance matrix from the Fisher's Information Matrix (FIM). We demonstrate that, for small noise, our estimator is able to attain the Cramér-Rao Lower Bound accuracy, i.e., the accuracy attained by the unbiased estimator with minimum variance. We also numerically demonstrate that our estimator is able to attain better accuracy on the state estimation than the trilateration method and returns a smaller uncertainty associated with the estimation.

Alexandre Oliveira, Katarina Dyreby, Francisco Caldas et al.

The increasing number of satellites and orbital debris has made space congestion a critical issue, threatening satellite safety and sustainability. Challenges such as collision avoidance, station-keeping, and orbital maneuvering require advanced techniques to handle dynamic uncertainties and multi-agent interactions. Reinforcement learning (RL) has shown promise in this domain, enabling adaptive, autonomous policies for space operations; however, many existing RL frameworks rely on custom-built environments developed from scratch, which often use simplified models and require significant time to implement and validate the orbital dynamics, limiting their ability to fully capture real-world complexities. To address this, we introduce OrbitZoo, a versatile multi-agent RL environment built on a high-fidelity industry standard library, that enables realistic data generation, supports scenarios like collision avoidance and cooperative maneuvers, and ensures robust and accurate orbital dynamics. The environment is validated against a real satellite constellation, Starlink, achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.16% compared to real-world data. This validation ensures reliability for generating high-fidelity simulations and enabling autonomous and independent satellite operations.

Ricardo N. Ferreira, Cláudia Soares

Constrained Online Convex Optimization (COCO) can be seen as a generalization of the standard Online Convex Optimization (OCO) framework. At each round, a cost function and constraint function are revealed after a learner chooses an action. The goal is to minimize both the regret and cumulative constraint violation (CCV) against an adaptive adversary. We show for the first time that is possible to obtain the optimal $O(\sqrt{T})$ bound on both regret and CCV, improving the best known bounds of $O \left( \sqrt{T} \right)$ and $\tilde{O} \left( \sqrt{T} \right)$ for the regret and CCV, respectively. Based on a new surrogate loss function enforcing a minimum penalty on the constraint function, we demonstrate that both the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader and the Online Gradient Descent achieve the optimal bounds.

Maria Carvalho, Claudia Soares, Pedro Lourenço et al.

We introduce a closed-form method for identification of discrete-time linear time-variant systems from data, formulating the learning problem as a regularized least squares problem where the regularizer favors smooth solutions within a trajectory. We develop a closed-form algorithm with guarantees of optimality and with a complexity that increases linearly with the number of instants considered per trajectory. The COSMIC algorithm achieves the desired result even in the presence of large volumes of data. Our method solved the problem using two orders of magnitude less computational power than a general purpose convex solver and was about 3 times faster than a Stochastic Block Coordinate Descent especially designed method. Computational times of our method remained in the order of magnitude of the second even for 10k and 100k time instants, where the general purpose solver crashed. To prove its applicability to real world systems, we test with spring-mass-damper system and use the estimated model to find the optimal control path. Our algorithm was applied to both a Low Fidelity and Functional Engineering Simulators for the Comet Interceptor mission, that requires precise pointing of the on-board cameras in a fast dynamics environment. Thus, this paper provides a fast alternative to classical system identification techniques for linear time-variant systems, while proving to be a solid base for applications in the Space industry and a step forward to the incorporation of algorithms that leverage data in such a safety-critical environment.

Francisco Caldas, Claudia Soares, Cláudia Nunes et al.

Space debris is a major problem in space exploration. International bodies continuously monitor a large database of orbiting objects and emit warnings in the form of conjunction data messages. An important question for satellite operators is to estimate when fresh information will arrive so that they can react timely but sparingly with satellite maneuvers. We propose a statistical learning model of the message arrival process, allowing us to answer two important questions: (1) Will there be any new message in the next specified time interval? (2) When exactly and with what uncertainty will the next message arrive? The average prediction error for question (2) of our Bayesian Poisson process model is smaller than the baseline in more than 4 hours in a test set of 50k close encounter events.