Michael Feindt

F. Wick, U. Kerzel, M. Hahn et al.

Demand forecasting is a central component of the replenishment process for retailers, as it provides crucial input for subsequent decision making like ordering processes. In contrast to point estimates, such as the conditional mean of the underlying probability distribution, or confidence intervals, forecasting complete probability density functions allows to investigate the impact on operational metrics, which are important to define the business strategy, over the full range of the expected demand. Whereas metrics evaluating point estimates are widely used, methods for assessing the accuracy of predicted distributions are rare, and this work proposes new techniques for both qualitative and quantitative evaluation methods. Using the supervised machine learning method "Cyclic Boosting", complete individual probability density functions can be predicted such that each prediction is fully explainable. This is of particular importance for practitioners, as it allows to avoid "black-box" models and understand the contributing factors for each individual prediction. Another crucial aspect in terms of both explainability and generalizability of demand forecasting methods is the limitation of the influence of temporal confounding, which is prevalent in most state of the art approaches.

Felix Wick, Ulrich Kerzel, Michael Feindt

Supervised machine learning algorithms have seen spectacular advances and surpassed human level performance in a wide range of specific applications. However, using complex ensemble or deep learning algorithms typically results in black box models, where the path leading to individual predictions cannot be followed in detail. In order to address this issue, we propose the novel "Cyclic Boosting" machine learning algorithm, which allows to efficiently perform accurate regression and classification tasks while at the same time allowing a detailed understanding of how each individual prediction was made.

Maximilian Christ, Andreas W. Kempa-Liehr, Michael Feindt

The all-relevant problem of feature selection is the identification of all strongly and weakly relevant attributes. This problem is especially hard to solve for time series classification and regression in industrial applications such as predictive maintenance or production line optimization, for which each label or regression target is associated with several time series and meta-information simultaneously. Here, we are proposing an efficient, scalable feature extraction algorithm for time series, which filters the available features in an early stage of the machine learning pipeline with respect to their significance for the classification or regression task, while controlling the expected percentage of selected but irrelevant features. The proposed algorithm combines established feature extraction methods with a feature importance filter. It has a low computational complexity, allows to start on a problem with only limited domain knowledge available, can be trivially parallelized, is highly scalable and based on well studied non-parametric hypothesis tests. We benchmark our proposed algorithm on all binary classification problems of the UCR time series classification archive as well as time series from a production line optimization project and simulated stochastic processes with underlying qualitative change of dynamics.