Rohitash Chandra

Amuche Ibenegbu, Pierre Lafaye de Micheaux, Rohitash Chandra

Time-series analysis is often affected by missing data, a common problem across several fields, including healthcare and environmental monitoring. Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) has been prominent for imputing missing values through "fully conditional specification". We extend MICE using the Bayesian framework (Bayes-MICE), utilising Bayesian inference to impute missing values via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to account for uncertainty in MICE model parameters and imputed values. We also include temporally informed initialisation and time-lagged features in the model to respect the sequential nature of time-series data. We evaluate the Bayes-MICE method using two real-world datasets (AirQuality and PhysioNet), and using both the Random Walk Metropolis (RWM) and the Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Algorithm (MALA) samplers. Our results demonstrate that Bayes-MICE reduces imputation errors relative to the baseline methods over all variables and accounts for uncertainty in the imputation process, thereby providing a more accurate measure of imputation error. We also found that MALA converges faster than RWM, achieving comparable accuracy while providing more consistent posterior exploration. Overall, these findings suggest that the Bayes-MICE framework represents a practical and efficient approach to time-series imputation, balancing increased accuracy with meaningful quantification of uncertainty in various environmental and clinical settings.

Omkar Kulkarni, Rohitash Chandra

Financial fraud detection is critical for maintaining the integrity of financial systems, particularly in decentralised environments such as cryptocurrency networks. Although Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) are widely used for financial fraud detection, graph Transformer models such as Graph-BERT are gaining prominence due to their Transformer-based architecture, which mitigates issues such as over-smoothing. Graph-BERT is designed for static graphs and primarily evaluated on citation networks with undirected edges. However, financial transaction networks are inherently dynamic, with evolving structures and directed edges representing the flow of money. To address these challenges, we introduce DynBERG, a novel architecture that integrates Graph-BERT with a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) layer to capture temporal evolution over multiple time steps. Additionally, we modify the underlying algorithm to support directed edges, making DynBERG well-suited for dynamic financial transaction analysis. We evaluate our model on the Elliptic dataset, which includes Bitcoin transactions, including all transactions during a major cryptocurrency market event, the Dark Market Shutdown. By assessing DynBERG's resilience before and after this event, we analyse its ability to adapt to significant market shifts that impact transaction behaviours. Our model is benchmarked against state-of-the-art dynamic graph classification approaches, such as EvolveGCN and GCN, demonstrating superior performance, outperforming EvolveGCN before the market shutdown and surpassing GCN after the event. Additionally, an ablation study highlights the critical role of incorporating a time-series deep learning component, showcasing the effectiveness of GRU in modelling the temporal dynamics of financial transactions.

Yadvendra Gurjar, Ruoni Wan, Ehsan Farahbakhsh et al.

As a developing country, Fiji is facing rapid urbanisation, which is visible in the massive development projects that include housing, roads, and civil works. In this study, we present machine learning and remote sensing frameworks to compare land use and land cover change from 2013 to 2024 in Nadi, Fiji. The ultimate goal of this study is to provide technical support in land cover/land use modelling and change detection. We used Landsat-8 satellite image for the study region and created our training dataset with labels for supervised machine learning. We used Google Earth Engine and unsupervised machine learning via k-means clustering to generate the land cover map. We used convolutional neural networks to classify the selected regions' land cover types. We present a visualisation of change detection, highlighting urban area changes over time to monitor changes in the map.

Amuche Ibenegbu, Amandine Schaeffer, Pierre Lafaye de Micheaux et al.

Bluebottles (\textit{Physalia} spp.) are marine stingers resembling jellyfish, whose presence on Australian beaches poses a significant public risk due to their venomous nature. Understanding the environmental factors driving bluebottles ashore is crucial for mitigating their impact, and machine learning tools are to date relatively unexplored. We use bluebottle marine stinger presence/absence data from beaches in Eastern Sydney, Australia, and compare machine learning models (Multilayer Perceptron, Random Forest, and XGBoost) to identify factors influencing their presence. We address challenges such as class imbalance, class overlap, and unreliable absence data by employing data augmentation techniques, including the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE), Random Undersampling, and Synthetic Negative Approach that excludes the negative class. Our results show that SMOTE failed to resolve class overlap, but the presence-focused approach effectively handled imbalance, class overlap, and ambiguous absence data. The data attributes such as the wind direction, which is a circular variable, emerged as a key factor influencing bluebottle presence, confirming previous inference studies. However, in the absence of population dynamics, biological behaviours, and life cycles, the best predictive model appears to be Random Forests combined with Synthetic Negative Approach. This research contributes to mitigating the risks posed by bluebottles to beachgoers and provides insights into handling class overlap and unreliable negative class in environmental modelling.