Lesley De Cruz

Ali Royat, Seyed Mohamad Moghadas, Lesley De Cruz et al.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across various domains, but their inherent complexity makes them challenging to interpret. This is especially true for temporal graph regression tasks due to the complex underlying spatio-temporal patterns in the graph. While interpretability concerns in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) mirror those of DNNs, no notable work has addressed the interpretability of temporal GNNs to the best of our knowledge. Innovative methods, such as prototypes, aim to make DNN models more interpretable. However, a combined approach based on prototype-based methods and Information Bottleneck (IB) principles has not yet been developed for temporal GNNs. Our research introduces a novel approach that uniquely integrates these techniques to enhance the interpretability of temporal graph regression models. The key contributions of our work are threefold: We introduce the Graph INterpretability in Temporal Regression task using Information bottleneck and Prototype (GINTRIP) framework, the first combined application of IB and prototype-based methods for interpretable temporal graph tasks. We derive a novel theoretical bound on mutual information (MI), extending the applicability of IB principles to graph regression tasks. We incorporate an unsupervised auxiliary classification head, fostering diverse concept representation using multi-task learning, which enhances the model's interpretability. Our model is evaluated on real-world datasets like traffic and crime, outperforming existing methods in both forecasting accuracy and interpretability-related metrics such as MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and fidelity.

Geert De Paepe, Lesley De Cruz

In meteorology, finding similar weather patterns or analogs in historical datasets can be useful for data assimilation, forecasting, and postprocessing. In climate science, analogs in historical and climate projection data are used for attribution and impact studies. However, most of the time, those large weather and climate datasets are nearline. This means that they must be downloaded, which takes a lot of bandwidth and disk space, before the computationally expensive search can be executed. We propose a dimension reduction technique based on autoencoder (AE) neural networks to compress the datasets and perform the search in an interpretable, compressed latent space. A distance-regularized Siamese twin autoencoder (DIRESA) architecture is designed to preserve distance in latent space while capturing the nonlinearities in the datasets. Using conceptual climate models of different complexities, we show that the latent components thus obtained provide physical insight into the dominant modes of variability in the system. Compressing datasets with DIRESA reduces the online storage and keeps the latent components uncorrelated, while the distance (ordering) preservation and reconstruction fidelity robustly outperform Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and other dimension reduction techniques such as UMAP or variational autoencoders.