Laura A. Mansfield

Robbie A. Watt, Laura A. Mansfield

Downscaling, or super-resolution, provides decision-makers with detailed, high-resolution information about the potential risks and impacts of climate change, based on climate model output. Machine learning algorithms are proving themselves to be efficient and accurate approaches to downscaling. Here, we show how a generative, diffusion-based approach to downscaling gives accurate downscaled results. We focus on an idealised setting where we recover ERA5 at $0.25\degree$~resolution from coarse grained version at $2\degree$~resolution. The diffusion-based method provides superior accuracy compared to a standard U-Net, particularly at the fine scales, as highlighted by a spectral decomposition. Additionally, the generative approach provides users with a probability distribution which can be used for risk assessment. This research highlights the potential of diffusion-based downscaling techniques in providing reliable and detailed climate predictions.

Jerry Lin, Zeyuan Hu, Tom Beucler et al.

Subgrid machine-learning (ML) parameterizations have the potential to introduce a new generation of climate models that incorporate the effects of higher-resolution physics without incurring the prohibitive computational cost associated with more explicit physics-based simulations. However, important issues, ranging from online instability to inconsistent online performance, have limited their operational use for long-term climate projections. To more rapidly drive progress in solving these issues, domain scientists and machine learning researchers opened up the offline aspect of this problem to the broader machine learning and data science community with the release of ClimSim, a NeurIPS Datasets and Benchmarks publication, and an associated Kaggle competition. This paper reports on the downstream results of the Kaggle competition by coupling emulators inspired by the winning teams' architectures to an interactive climate model (including full cloud microphysics, a regime historically prone to online instability) and systematically evaluating their online performance. Our results demonstrate that online stability in the low-resolution, real-geography setting is reproducible across multiple diverse architectures, which we consider a key milestone. All tested architectures exhibit strikingly similar offline and online biases, though their responses to architecture-agnostic design choices (e.g., expanding the list of input variables) can differ significantly. Multiple Kaggle-inspired architectures achieve state-of-the-art (SOTA) results on certain metrics such as zonal mean bias patterns and global RMSE, indicating that crowdsourcing the essence of the offline problem is one path to improving online performance in hybrid physics-AI climate simulation.